PepeS

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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16.88k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
199.279	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
176.619	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
169.263	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
158.252	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
156.346	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
156.254	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
141.893	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
136.246	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
132.995	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
132.589	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
131.484	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
129.888	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
129.876	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
122.819	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
122.017	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
114.253	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
105.741	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
103.524	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
100.720	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
99.503	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
98.439	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
98.329	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
98.323	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.323	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
98.323	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
98.294	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
98.294	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
98.262	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
98.210	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
98.163	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
98.135	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
98.112	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
98.068	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
97.942	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
97.870	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
97.555	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
97.438	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
96.634	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
96.577	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
96.569	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
96.428	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
96.255	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
96.219	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
96.117	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
95.774	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
95.760	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
95.596	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
95.544	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
95.512	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
95.391	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
95.391	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
95.315	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
95.140	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
95.026	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
94.922	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
94.865	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
94.584	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
94.583	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
93.984	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
93.899	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
93.740	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
93.740	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
93.566	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
93.004	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
92.539	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
92.460	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
92.384	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
92.332	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
92.172	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
91.987	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
91.805	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
91.609	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
91.571	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
91.301	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
90.882	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
90.812	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
90.528	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
90.384	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
90.266	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
90.213	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
89.894	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
89.673	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
89.318	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
89.266	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
89.189	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
88.621	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
88.287	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
87.609	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
87.560	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
87.480	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
87.409	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
87.031	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
86.782	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
86.142	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
86.095	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
85.399	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
85.252	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
85.062	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
84.682	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
84.422	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
84.377	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
84.117	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
83.933	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
83.765	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
83.209	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
83.013	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
83.011	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
82.854	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
82.630	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
82.625	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
82.625	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
82.588	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
82.031	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
82.031	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
81.869	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
81.221	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
81.144	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
81.028	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
80.912	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
80.907	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
80.834	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
80.828	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
80.732	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
80.454	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
80.423	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
80.404	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
80.121	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
79.834	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
79.566	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
79.561	Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?	Binary
79.392	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
79.308	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
79.091	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
79.033	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
78.993	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
78.993	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
78.993	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
78.980	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
78.608	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
78.584	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
78.567	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
78.501	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
78.403	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
78.401	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
78.345	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
77.952	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
77.843	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
77.596	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
77.488	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
77.212	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
77.211	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
76.906	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
76.610	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
76.491	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
76.033	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
75.973	How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
75.599	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
75.234	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
74.226	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
73.866	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
73.792	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
73.778	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
73.637	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
73.472	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
73.401	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
73.350	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
73.067	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
73.021	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
72.972	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
72.268	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
72.131	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
71.475	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
71.407	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
70.496	What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025)	Continuous
70.157	What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025)	Continuous
70.042	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
70.028	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
69.788	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
69.439	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
69.275	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
68.397	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
67.195	Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026)	Binary
67.136	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
66.278	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
66.100	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
66.069	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
65.690	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.690	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
65.593	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
65.509	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
65.293	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
65.293	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
65.084	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
64.895	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
64.895	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
64.663	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
64.582	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
64.372	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
64.298	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
64.262	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
63.666	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
63.637	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
63.153	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
63.011	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
62.928	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
62.809	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
62.616	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
62.564	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
62.479	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
62.285	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
62.276	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
62.207	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
61.759	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
61.284	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
61.216	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
61.076	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
60.478	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
60.222	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
59.812	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025)	Continuous
59.620	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
59.400	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
59.027	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
58.573	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
58.441	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
58.411	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
58.211	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
58.194	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
57.940	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
57.743	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
57.355	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
56.898	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
56.811	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
56.456	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
56.456	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
56.310	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
56.205	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
56.191	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
56.167	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
55.548	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
55.542	What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025?	Continuous
55.525	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
55.052	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
54.870	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
54.594	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
54.521	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
54.139	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
53.466	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
53.224	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
53.125	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
52.904	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
52.662	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
52.141	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
51.081	How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025?	Continuous
50.941	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
50.766	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
50.574	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
50.172	What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025)	Continuous
49.896	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
49.427	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
49.363	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
49.288	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
49.252	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
49.180	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
48.801	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
48.564	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
48.299	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
48.224	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
48.062	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
47.526	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
46.752	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
46.644	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
46.640	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
46.317	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
46.156	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
45.200	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
44.940	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
43.795	What will be the estimated fleet average fuel economy (in mpg) imposed by a regulatory agency in the United States for light vehicles manufactured in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
43.791	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
43.778	What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025?	Continuous
43.432	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
43.376	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
43.123	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
42.626	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
42.620	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
42.323	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
42.239	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
42.113	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
42.076	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
41.220	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
40.965	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
40.482	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
40.390	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
40.263	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
39.920	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2024)	Continuous
38.784	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
38.336	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
38.203	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
37.303	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
36.995	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
36.919	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
36.424	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
36.229	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
36.184	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
35.156	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
34.666	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
34.572	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
34.318	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
34.058	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
33.158	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
33.096	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
32.889	How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?	Continuous
32.789	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
32.456	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
32.310	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
32.056	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
31.867	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
30.288	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
29.705	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
29.617	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
29.230	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
29.189	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
28.992	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
28.612	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
27.201	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
26.936	What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025?	Continuous
26.553	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.499	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
26.174	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
25.043	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
24.619	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
24.567	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
23.319	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
22.964	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
22.638	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
22.427	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
22.369	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
21.348	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
19.555	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
19.254	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
18.931	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
18.918	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
18.566	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	Continuous
18.134	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
18.121	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
17.978	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
17.895	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
17.474	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
16.132	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
16.051	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
15.963	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
15.906	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
14.674	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
14.494	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
14.457	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
14.296	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
13.866	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
13.769	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
13.633	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
13.184	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
13.110	How many dollars' worth of security assistance will the U.S. direct to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023?	Continuous
12.842	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
12.581	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
11.600	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
11.149	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
10.343	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
10.322	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
10.107	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
9.581	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
9.439	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
9.079	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
8.433	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
8.351	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
8.062	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
7.863	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
7.241	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
7.183	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
7.128	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
6.960	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
6.770	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
6.187	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
5.645	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
5.237	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
5.099	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
5.099	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
5.099	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
5.099	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
5.099	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
4.821	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
4.609	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.638	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
3.542	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
3.515	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
3.325	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
3.250	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
3.093	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
2.053	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
1.760	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
1.649	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
1.299	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
1.291	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
0.124	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.006	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-0.405	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
-1.289	What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-1.836	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
-2.588	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
-2.847	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-3.863	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-3.983	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-4.317	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
-5.436	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-5.598	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
-7.341	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-7.393	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-7.453	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-7.613	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-8.702	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
-9.720	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
-9.851	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-9.909	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous
-10.191	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-10.782	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-11.234	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
-11.639	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-11.829	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
-14.525	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
-14.557	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
-14.965	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-15.019	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
-15.179	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-16.511	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-16.807	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-17.203	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-18.957	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-19.920	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-20.805	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
-20.875	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-20.915	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-22.991	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-24.042	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-24.329	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
-24.909	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-25.452	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-26.679	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-31.635	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-32.042	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
-32.942	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
-32.979	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-34.671	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-38.096	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-41.914	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
-43.550	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-43.668	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-46.297	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-47.094	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-48.842	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-57.242	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-57.422	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-57.804	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
-58.608	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
-61.032	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-63.264	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
-67.169	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
-71.440	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-73.533	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-78.294	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-78.337	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
-81.591	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-81.680	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-86.645	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-95.105	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
-98.369	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
-99.897	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-102.167	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-104.914	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
-108.037	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-115.020	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-117.373	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
-120.547	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-125.166	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2024)	Continuous
-133.924	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-138.440	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-149.994	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-157.639	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-159.014	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-166.840	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-168.094	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-172.288	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
-191.664	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
-192.797	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
-209.575	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-213.359	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-228.961	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-249.295	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-269.660	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-284.369	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-286.310	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
-363.224	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
-423.651	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-492.712	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary