RuslanBes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9355	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.123	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
111.743	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
99.054	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
98.975	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
98.959	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
98.882	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.856	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
98.537	Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025)	Binary
98.160	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
97.664	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
97.437	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
96.946	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
96.732	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
96.725	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.056	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.914	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.624	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
95.509	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
95.497	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
95.391	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
95.088	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
94.921	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
94.734	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
94.358	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
93.885	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
93.765	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
93.717	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
93.670	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
93.648	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
93.175	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
92.869	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
92.855	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.809	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
92.577	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
92.304	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
92.052	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
91.910	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
91.525	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
90.256	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
90.114	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
89.731	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.300	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
88.673	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
87.839	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
86.848	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
86.511	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
86.331	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
86.313	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
85.743	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
85.581	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
85.415	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
84.994	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
84.944	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
84.312	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
84.260	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.951	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
83.934	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
83.690	Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025)	Binary
83.502	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.430	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
83.319	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.967	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
82.722	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
81.851	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
81.536	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.859	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
80.226	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
80.064	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.978	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
79.824	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
79.800	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
79.191	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
78.865	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
78.373	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
78.037	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
78.027	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
77.374	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
77.278	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
76.856	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
76.501	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
76.302	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
76.113	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
75.459	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
75.459	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
74.706	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
74.589	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
74.589	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
74.589	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
74.125	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
72.390	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
72.230	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
71.125	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
70.612	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
69.285	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
69.149	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
69.132	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
69.116	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
68.197	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
67.505	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
66.327	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
65.761	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
64.328	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
63.828	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
62.480	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
62.271	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
61.584	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
60.627	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
60.552	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
60.112	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
59.766	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
59.651	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
58.161	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
56.039	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
55.816	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
54.998	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
54.867	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
54.524	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
54.403	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
53.072	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
52.140	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
51.721	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
51.241	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
50.932	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
50.207	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
49.923	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
49.629	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
48.770	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
47.889	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
47.828	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
47.797	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
47.499	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.170	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
44.896	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
44.784	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
44.754	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
43.837	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
43.810	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
43.478	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
42.200	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
42.193	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
41.635	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
40.295	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
39.484	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
38.725	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
38.622	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
37.691	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
37.305	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
36.925	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
36.852	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
36.536	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
36.295	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
35.515	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
32.760	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
32.587	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
32.361	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
31.758	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
31.306	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
31.133	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
30.746	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
29.991	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.882	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
29.442	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
28.530	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
28.226	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
28.073	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
27.272	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
27.092	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
25.615	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
25.184	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
24.289	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
23.944	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
23.690	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
23.458	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
23.116	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
22.597	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
22.073	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
21.419	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
21.258	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
20.031	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
19.947	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
19.624	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
19.543	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
19.019	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
18.969	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.522	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
17.858	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
17.604	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
16.881	What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
16.529	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
15.991	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
15.492	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
15.197	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
13.960	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
13.775	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia)	Binary
13.775	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands)	Binary
13.595	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland)	Binary
13.595	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine)	Binary
12.774	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland)	Binary
11.698	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia)	Binary
11.698	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria)	Binary
11.698	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece)	Binary
11.698	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania)	Binary
11.698	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway)	Binary
9.552	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
9.549	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
8.341	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
7.573	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
7.149	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
6.392	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
3.690	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
3.612	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
3.058	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
1.815	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
1.466	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
1.126	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
0.682	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
0.610	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
0.589	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
0.470	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
-0.370	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.048	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-2.508	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-3.837	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-4.117	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-6.095	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-7.021	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-7.377	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-8.021	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-8.070	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-8.895	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-10.556	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
-10.686	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-12.623	Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?	Binary
-13.732	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-17.602	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-18.667	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-19.608	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-20.366	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
-21.008	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-22.547	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-27.317	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-27.848	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-28.668	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-32.031	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium)	Binary
-32.859	Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?	Binary
-36.882	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-38.462	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-39.806	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-39.967	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-47.469	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-52.494	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-53.026	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-55.327	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-58.049	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-61.092	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-64.513	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-76.061	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-78.406	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-89.431	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-98.951	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-100.191	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-101.480	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-103.837	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-117.897	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-137.976	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-140.451	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-167.064	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-191.952	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-202.043	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-214.623	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-224.164	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary