| 168.167 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
| 167.170 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
| 127.866 | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
| 101.202 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 100.862 | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
| 99.393 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 99.322 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk) | Binary |
| 99.239 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
| 98.883 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.819 | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.803 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.702 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.546 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.538 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.483 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 98.444 | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.390 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk) | Binary |
| 98.094 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 97.707 | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.682 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1) | Binary |
| 97.546 | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.430 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
| 96.993 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.813 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
| 96.645 | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
| 96.599 | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
| 96.507 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.398 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.357 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.778 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 95.631 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.586 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.373 | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| 94.003 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024? | Continuous |
| 93.647 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 93.356 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.346 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.094 | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.857 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 92.696 | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
| 92.594 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.335 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.127 | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.771 | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.755 | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.583 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 91.354 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
| 91.112 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
| 90.949 | Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | Binary |
| 90.756 | Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 90.534 | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.500 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
| 89.941 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.531 | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 89.111 | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
| 88.937 | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 88.546 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
| 88.157 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.880 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
| 87.616 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.596 | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 87.414 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.994 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.986 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 86.913 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.398 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.230 | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 85.796 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.379 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
| 85.233 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
| 85.192 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
| 85.186 | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 85.184 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African National Congress) | Continuous |
| 85.080 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | Binary |
| 84.991 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
| 84.561 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
| 84.395 | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.206 | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
| 84.167 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.072 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Democratic Alliance) | Continuous |
| 83.666 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.268 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 82.895 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
| 82.620 | Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024? | Binary |
| 82.525 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 82.481 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 81.892 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 81.507 | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
| 80.609 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.148 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 79.806 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
| 79.204 | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 79.142 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 79.097 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025) | Continuous |
| 78.956 | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 78.592 | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.552 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.439 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
| 78.162 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.429 | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.233 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
| 77.073 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
| 76.973 | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
| 76.955 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
| 76.830 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 76.067 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 76.062 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.056 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
| 75.940 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
| 75.681 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
| 75.340 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.135 | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.085 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 74.421 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| 74.124 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 73.845 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
| 73.461 | What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025? | Continuous |
| 73.160 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 73.142 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 72.854 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
| 72.803 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
| 72.720 | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 72.217 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
| 71.967 | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 71.254 | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
| 71.201 | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 71.188 | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
| 70.316 | Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster? | Binary |
| 70.278 | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
| 69.689 | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 69.542 | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
| 69.487 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 69.246 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 68.585 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
| 68.568 | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 68.439 | What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan at the end of December 2024? | Continuous |
| 67.783 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 67.547 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
| 67.321 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.056 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia? | Multiple Choice |
| 66.665 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Continuous |
| 66.352 | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
| 65.867 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 65.711 | Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025? | Binary |
| 64.562 | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
| 64.257 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
| 63.656 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 62.887 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 62.712 | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 62.498 | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 62.481 | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024) | Continuous |
| 62.318 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Continuous |
| 61.894 | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
| 61.535 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 61.139 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024) | Continuous |
| 61.047 | What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| 60.766 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
| 60.260 | How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024? | Continuous |
| 60.042 | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
| 59.849 | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 59.846 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| 59.740 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
| 59.602 | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.557 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 59.450 | [Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.983 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 58.752 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 58.606 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 57.860 | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 57.508 | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
| 57.456 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 57.054 | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 56.945 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
| 56.854 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
| 56.406 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
| 56.400 | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
| 56.210 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 56.082 | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
| 55.984 | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
| 55.388 | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
| 55.327 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.112 | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.011 | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
| 54.981 | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 54.729 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Other parties and independents) | Continuous |
| 53.646 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
| 53.480 | Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025? | Binary |
| 53.238 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.099 | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
| 52.820 | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 52.817 | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025) | Continuous |
| 51.660 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.586 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (uMkhonto we Sizwe) | Continuous |
| 51.535 | When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released? | Continuous |
| 50.917 | What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| 50.644 | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 50.086 | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
| 49.229 | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 48.953 | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
| 48.513 | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
| 48.022 | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
| 47.948 | Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate? | Binary |
| 47.736 | On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group? | Multiple Choice |
| 47.689 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 47.649 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.603 | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
| 47.482 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Continuous |
| 47.334 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 47.265 | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
| 47.172 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
| 47.075 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 47.004 | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 46.963 | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
| 46.745 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 45.047 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| 44.962 | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
| 44.611 | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 44.510 | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 43.376 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 43.017 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
| 42.916 | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
| 42.331 | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
| 42.074 | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
| 41.552 | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 41.418 | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
| 41.248 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 40.377 | Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May? | Binary |
| 39.450 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| 38.665 | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
| 37.489 | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.262 | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 37.002 | Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 36.978 | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
| 36.626 | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 35.401 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
| 35.216 | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
| 35.094 | US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 33.983 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.591 | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
| 33.177 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 32.948 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (November 23, 2024) | Continuous |
| 32.808 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024) | Binary |
| 32.614 | How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 32.146 | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 31.106 | Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024? | Binary |
| 30.998 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
| 30.839 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
| 30.785 | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.753 | What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be? | Continuous |
| 30.372 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 30.024 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
| 29.882 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
| 29.813 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 29.510 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
| 29.427 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 29.218 | On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark? | Multiple Choice |
| 29.143 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 27.991 | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
| 27.410 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 26.665 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.492 | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.266 | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.260 | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
| 25.853 | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
| 25.415 | In the Q3 AI Benchmarking tournament, how will the Pro aggregate Baseline score compare to the best bot? | Continuous |
| 24.431 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 24.383 | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 23.751 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 23.725 | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
| 23.428 | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
| 22.835 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
| 22.406 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 22.192 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.417 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
| 20.692 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.522 | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.397 | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.024 | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.553 | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.520 | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.268 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 17.994 | How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior? | Continuous |
| 17.813 | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
| 16.366 | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
| 16.275 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| 15.695 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (November 2024) | Continuous |
| 15.397 | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 14.632 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 14.400 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.208 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 13.995 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.276 | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 11.813 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 11.203 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.623 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 7.426 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 7.255 | Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives? | Binary |
| 5.689 | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.340 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.578 | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
| 3.694 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
| 3.096 | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.799 | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
| 1.572 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.374 | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.204 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
| 1.173 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.047 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.025 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.884 | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.710 | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Binary |
| 0.169 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
| -0.131 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.339 | [Short Fuse] When will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike end for the Port of New York and New Jersey? | Continuous |
| -0.539 | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
| -0.599 | What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| -1.013 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
| -1.037 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland? | Multiple Choice |
| -1.045 | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -4.718 | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
| -5.706 | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -7.620 | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
| -7.776 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (National Democratic Alliance (NDA)) | Continuous |
| -8.780 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.475 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -9.660 | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
| -9.860 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| -11.276 | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -11.493 | How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -13.575 | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -13.737 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025) | Continuous |
| -14.549 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
| -16.460 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| -17.151 | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
| -17.869 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| -21.936 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
| -22.817 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
| -23.375 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
| -24.227 | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| -24.807 | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
| -25.836 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.934 | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| -30.535 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
| -38.644 | Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -41.807 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Indian Nat.Development Inclusive All. (INDIA)) | Continuous |
| -44.270 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| -46.823 | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
| -47.642 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -49.108 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
| -50.209 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
| -51.576 | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -51.701 | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
| -53.279 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
| -54.546 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
| -54.671 | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -60.551 | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
| -61.835 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| -63.801 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
| -70.724 | What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| -71.378 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -72.750 | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
| -75.611 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
| -88.594 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
| -90.016 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
| -90.743 | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
| -93.448 | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2024) | Continuous |
| -109.020 | Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| -112.056 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland? | Multiple Choice |
| -122.720 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -126.134 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -129.976 | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
| -157.028 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
| -215.230 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
| -279.832 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |