| 169.741 | What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024? | Continuous |
| 122.035 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 99.213 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 98.548 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 98.548 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 98.548 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 98.525 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.358 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.283 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 98.283 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 98.073 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 97.885 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.855 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 97.854 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 97.544 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.273 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.040 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.015 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 96.728 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 96.644 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 96.366 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 96.185 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 95.945 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 95.455 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 95.397 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 95.350 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 95.009 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 94.852 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 94.737 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.664 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.516 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.359 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 94.301 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 94.087 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.835 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 93.692 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 92.882 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 92.704 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 92.598 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 92.598 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 92.510 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.361 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 92.327 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 92.235 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 92.222 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 92.102 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 92.102 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 91.976 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 91.886 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 91.773 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 91.773 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 91.681 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.287 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.286 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.257 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 91.257 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 91.126 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.646 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 90.646 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 90.618 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 90.448 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 88.892 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 88.108 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.103 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.383 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 87.381 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 87.020 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 86.716 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 86.468 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 86.403 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 86.403 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 86.403 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 86.024 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 85.899 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 85.566 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 84.763 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.752 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.438 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.438 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 84.438 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.007 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 83.923 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 83.853 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 83.708 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 83.348 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 82.493 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.964 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 81.921 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 81.838 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 81.626 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 81.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 80.921 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 80.685 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 79.534 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 77.969 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 77.892 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.286 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.611 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 76.254 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 75.788 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 75.788 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 75.754 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 75.472 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 75.472 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 75.234 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 74.678 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 74.678 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 74.269 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.116 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.105 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 73.684 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 73.041 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 72.526 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 71.823 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 70.129 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 69.733 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 69.733 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 69.733 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 69.088 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 68.704 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 67.806 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.769 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.769 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.702 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.558 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 67.518 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 66.934 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 66.572 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 66.309 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 66.237 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 66.174 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 65.972 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.590 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 65.573 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 65.467 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 65.420 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.558 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 63.247 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 62.270 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 59.959 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 59.212 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 58.336 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 57.717 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 57.551 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 56.152 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 54.697 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 54.007 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 52.600 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 52.377 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 52.364 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 51.017 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 50.711 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 50.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 50.403 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 50.382 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 50.212 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.456 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.380 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.796 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 47.514 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 47.390 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.198 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 47.098 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 46.989 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 46.188 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 45.298 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 44.397 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 44.139 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 44.025 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 43.557 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 43.081 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 41.762 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 38.655 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 38.618 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 38.479 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 38.363 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 37.915 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.517 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 35.470 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 34.484 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.294 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 33.573 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 31.173 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 29.189 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 27.615 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.577 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 24.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 24.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 24.116 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 22.855 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 22.855 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 19.914 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 19.914 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 19.914 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 19.654 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 19.547 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 19.308 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 18.279 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 17.943 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 16.828 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 16.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 16.599 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 15.172 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 13.844 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 13.750 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 13.725 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.575 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 13.573 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 13.573 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 12.987 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.520 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 11.618 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 10.665 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 10.665 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 8.697 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.408 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.372 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 8.333 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.634 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 5.662 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 4.889 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 4.074 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 2.555 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 2.451 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 2.152 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 1.862 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 1.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 1.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 1.649 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 1.464 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 1.432 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 1.432 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 1.197 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 0.855 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 0.613 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 0.428 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| 0.310 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| 0.222 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| - | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| - | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| - | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| - | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| - | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| -0.147 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| -0.571 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| -0.863 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| -1.063 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -5.814 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| -6.874 | Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -7.877 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -11.873 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -14.261 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| -14.774 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -15.066 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -21.838 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| -23.947 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| -26.006 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -29.908 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -32.136 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -32.280 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -34.059 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -35.349 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -38.119 | When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods? | Continuous |
| -40.062 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| -41.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -51.371 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| -52.162 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -54.948 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| -57.852 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -59.941 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| -73.585 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| -85.994 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -95.913 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -141.352 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -187.789 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -227.222 | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -230.976 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -300.471 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -304.566 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -304.566 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |