Zaldath

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4916	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
86.857	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
85.596	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
75.494	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
73.829	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
73.214	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
71.931	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
70.484	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
69.830	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
69.454	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
67.348	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
67.268	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
66.816	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
65.606	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
65.537	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
65.474	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
65.411	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
65.261	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
64.698	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
64.187	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
63.759	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
63.142	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
61.370	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
61.072	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
60.989	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
60.746	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
60.104	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
59.896	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
59.725	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
59.176	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
58.963	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
58.625	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
58.431	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
57.297	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
57.236	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
57.041	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
56.193	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
54.564	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
53.298	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
52.986	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
51.710	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
51.678	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
50.410	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
50.252	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
49.277	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
48.813	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
48.363	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
48.360	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
46.888	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
46.884	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
46.884	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
46.770	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
46.720	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
46.472	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
45.818	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
44.675	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
44.522	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
44.408	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
44.356	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
44.262	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
44.056	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
43.843	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
43.682	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
43.607	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
43.597	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
43.338	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
43.234	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
43.199	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
42.364	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
41.678	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
40.895	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
40.822	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
40.410	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
39.592	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
38.649	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
37.816	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
36.287	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
35.893	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
35.726	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
35.156	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
34.487	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
33.016	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
32.807	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
32.754	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
32.687	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
32.285	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
32.134	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
31.620	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
31.548	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
30.041	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
28.587	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
28.463	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
28.220	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
27.995	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
26.785	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
26.672	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
26.131	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
26.067	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
24.668	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
22.674	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2032 questions)	Continuous
22.100	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2052 questions)	Continuous
21.280	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2023 questions)	Continuous
20.997	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2122 questions)	Continuous
20.637	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
20.444	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.216	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.606	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
18.726	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
18.292	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
16.555	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
16.454	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
16.335	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
15.723	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
14.482	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
13.713	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
13.514	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
12.744	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
12.740	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
12.214	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
11.882	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
11.357	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
10.882	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
10.723	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.217	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
8.508	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
7.097	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
5.840	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
5.465	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
5.324	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
5.316	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
4.816	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
4.285	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
3.089	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
2.989	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
2.529	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
2.321	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
1.693	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
1.531	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
1.267	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2025 questions)	Continuous
1.203	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.534	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
0.375	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
0.054	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-1.347	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-1.440	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.603	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-1.943	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
-2.309	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-4.316	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.054	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-34.903	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-39.420	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-44.909	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-49.440	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-54.657	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-59.062	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-66.753	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary