ENotSilent

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2701	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.278	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
93.763	Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?	Binary
93.660	Will any opposition legislator in Taiwan lose their recall election on August 23, 2025?	Binary
93.255	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
92.706	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
92.317	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
91.888	Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?	Binary
90.711	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
88.705	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
87.782	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
87.642	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
86.249	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
84.508	Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?	Binary
83.574	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
82.083	Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?	Binary
79.596	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
79.543	How many days will Donald Trump spend golfing in September 2025?	Continuous
79.021	Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?	Binary
78.276	Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?	Binary
77.481	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
75.572	Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?	Binary
75.559	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
75.002	Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?	Binary
74.985	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
73.401	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
73.381	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
71.209	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
70.920	Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?	Binary
70.343	Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?	Binary
69.648	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
69.630	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
69.210	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
68.679	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
68.102	Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
67.420	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
67.403	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
65.507	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.351	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
63.417	Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?	Binary
63.347	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
62.932	Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?	Multiple Choice
62.766	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
61.790	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
61.789	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
61.729	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
60.493	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
59.573	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
57.689	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
57.389	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
57.220	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
56.415	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
56.159	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
56.094	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.984	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
55.305	Where will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be on October 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.463	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.021	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
53.592	Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?	Binary
53.026	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
51.731	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
51.728	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
50.367	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
49.824	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
48.301	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
47.966	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
47.858	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
46.525	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
45.784	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
44.331	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
43.962	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
41.647	How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?	Multiple Choice
41.389	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
37.222	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
37.075	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
36.648	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
34.679	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
34.676	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
31.896	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
31.488	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
31.017	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
30.778	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
30.549	Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?	Binary
30.248	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
29.148	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
28.249	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
27.529	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
27.515	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
26.117	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
25.954	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?	Binary
24.815	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
24.512	How many incidents of unruly passengers will the FAA report for September 2025?	Continuous
23.396	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
22.046	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
20.808	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
19.579	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
17.176	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill impose new work requirements on Medicaid recipients?	Binary
17.059	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
16.495	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
14.451	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
13.604	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
13.589	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
12.669	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
10.169	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
9.786	Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?	Binary
9.639	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
9.351	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
8.039	Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?	Binary
7.847	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
7.331	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
6.992	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
6.926	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
6.335	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
6.209	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
2.252	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
1.620	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
0.932	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
0.209	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
-0.390	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-1.150	Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?	Binary
-3.137	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
-6.194	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-13.866	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-14.137	Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?	Binary
-15.213	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
-17.188	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
-19.877	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-21.564	Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-22.978	Will Ghana sign into law "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values" bill before 2026?	Binary
-26.964	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
-27.129	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
-27.529	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-38.762	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
-49.815	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-50.302	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-51.258	Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?	Binary
-51.483	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-57.414	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-57.432	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-58.327	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
-62.285	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-65.703	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-72.324	Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?	Binary
-78.317	[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?	Binary
-80.883	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-86.684	Will the US import more shrimp in 2025 than 2024?	Binary
-86.711	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-91.178	Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?	Binary
-99.313	Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?	Binary
-99.415	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-111.416	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-117.789	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-119.340	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-120.891	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-129.346	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-132.519	[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?	Binary
-135.824	Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-166.397	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-172.146	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-186.797	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-275.226	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary