Sebastian_DiB

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2305	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
101.662	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
98.664	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
94.896	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
83.924	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
81.534	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
79.950	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
78.903	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
78.707	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
77.546	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
74.931	Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Multiple Choice
74.017	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
73.727	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
73.534	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
72.604	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
71.754	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
68.909	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
68.849	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
67.870	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
67.757	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
67.239	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (ΑΜΖΝ)	Continuous
65.867	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
65.154	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
64.983	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
61.655	How much higher will the Shanghai–LA spot container freight rate be than the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate on March 5, 2026?	Continuous
61.044	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
59.976	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
58.681	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
57.124	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
54.904	What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026?	Continuous
54.134	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
53.973	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
53.569	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
53.349	What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026?	Continuous
53.024	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
51.999	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
51.124	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
49.498	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
46.929	What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?	Multiple Choice
46.572	Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Multiple Choice
45.940	What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala?	Continuous
45.098	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous
42.914	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
40.486	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?	Binary
40.467	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
40.075	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
38.933	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
38.004	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
37.903	What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
37.616	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
37.266	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
37.136	What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
37.005	What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026?	Continuous
36.429	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
36.329	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
35.380	What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
33.567	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
33.164	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
32.706	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
32.469	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
32.365	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
32.330	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
30.627	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
30.045	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
29.314	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
28.450	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights)	Continuous
25.343	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
24.789	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
24.313	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
23.183	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
23.140	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
21.409	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
20.337	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
18.839	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
17.194	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
15.791	What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
13.731	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
13.284	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
13.073	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
12.091	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
11.960	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
11.884	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Apple)	Continuous
11.105	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
10.891	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
9.734	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
9.644	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
9.020	Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?	Binary
7.907	What will be the average weekly YoY growth of the Redbook Same-Store Retail Sales Index during February 2026?	Continuous
7.861	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
7.572	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
5.653	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
5.496	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
4.904	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
4.223	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
4.172	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
3.973	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
3.903	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
3.781	Which major currency will increase most (or decrease least) in value compared to the US dollar during February 2026?	Multiple Choice
3.287	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
3.154	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
2.115	Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026?	Multiple Choice
2.103	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
1.986	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Tesla)	Continuous
1.724	What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?	Continuous
1.502	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
0.882	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
0.680	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
0.413	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Amazon)	Continuous
0.000	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
-1.288	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
-1.596	What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025?	Continuous
-2.298	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
-2.441	Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?	Binary
-2.682	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-3.876	Will the United States see less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? (Yes) → What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-5.830	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-5.836	What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-5.898	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 6 - Apr 17)	Continuous
-7.039	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
-9.459	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
-12.114	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
-12.484	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
-13.411	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (May 4 - May 15)	Continuous
-14.618	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
-15.211	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Apr 20 - May 1)	Continuous
-16.419	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
-18.185	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
-18.842	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
-20.677	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-21.554	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
-24.492	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
-27.528	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-28.077	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
-29.389	What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-34.447	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Mar 2 - Mar 13)	Continuous
-35.152	When will the Supreme Court release its decision on presidential tariff authority in Learning Resources v. Trump?	Multiple Choice
-42.289	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Mar 16 - Mar 27)	Continuous
-42.520	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27)	Continuous
-48.526	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-51.280	What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026?	Continuous
-54.551	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026? (Jun 1 - Jun 12)	Continuous
-68.244	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 2 - Feb 13)	Continuous
-113.349	What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-115.184	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-133.289	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
-148.921	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
-190.110	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30)	Continuous
-222.758	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies? (Nvidia)	Continuous