PeterWildeford

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.12	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
75.413	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
64.058	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
59.437	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
57.958	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
55.209	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
51.770	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
43.331	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
39.500	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
39.365	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
39.282	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
38.644	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
35.935	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
33.588	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
30.994	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
30.729	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
30.424	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
30.295	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
30.151	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.966	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
28.940	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
27.442	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
26.640	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
26.415	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
25.769	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
25.508	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
23.089	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
22.987	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
22.899	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
22.745	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
21.787	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
20.125	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
19.896	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.792	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
19.609	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.710	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
17.584	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
17.434	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
17.389	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
17.078	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
16.658	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
16.614	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
16.084	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.023	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
15.961	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
15.876	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
15.734	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
15.627	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
15.381	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
15.336	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
14.923	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
14.672	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
14.465	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.290	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
14.109	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
14.039	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
13.630	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
13.362	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
12.952	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
12.948	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
12.915	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
12.723	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
12.723	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.893	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
11.757	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
11.709	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.634	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
11.466	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
11.281	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
10.832	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
10.519	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
10.507	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
10.415	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.307	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.198	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
9.992	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
9.726	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
9.633	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
9.404	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
9.397	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
9.016	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
8.958	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.844	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
8.499	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
8.490	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
8.383	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.202	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
7.821	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
7.799	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
7.728	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
7.623	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
7.335	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
7.252	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
6.710	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
6.585	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
6.554	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
6.444	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
6.088	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
6.050	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
6.012	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
5.732	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.415	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.373	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
5.314	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
5.313	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.311	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
5.185	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.133	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
4.970	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.964	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.935	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
3.908	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.821	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
3.797	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.666	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
3.578	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
3.503	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
3.363	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.182	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.950	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
2.699	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
2.664	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
2.658	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
2.656	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
2.591	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
2.493	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
2.392	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.357	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
2.331	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
2.154	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
2.086	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
2.074	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
1.925	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
1.577	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
1.439	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
1.371	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
1.231	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.187	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
1.129	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
1.072	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
0.762	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
0.661	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
0.544	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
0.526	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
0.399	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.287	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
0.049	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.047	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.046	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.032	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.013	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.008	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.007	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.006	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.005	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.002	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-2.070	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-3.187	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
-3.778	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-4.556	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-4.900	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
-5.415	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-6.060	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-6.441	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.629	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-13.990	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-22.288	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-26.065	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
-27.622	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-31.501	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-35.055	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-53.311	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-55.102	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2023)	Continuous