Vang

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.649	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
66.269	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
64.682	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
36.308	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
33.943	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
33.173	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
32.909	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
30.433	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
29.970	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
27.772	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
26.614	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
25.472	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
24.195	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
23.813	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
23.637	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
23.366	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
23.362	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
23.151	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.546	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
22.242	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
21.098	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
20.629	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
20.579	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
19.058	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
18.344	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
18.289	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
18.206	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
15.853	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
15.693	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
14.921	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
13.917	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
13.460	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
13.219	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
12.295	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.925	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
11.903	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
11.834	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
11.547	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
11.497	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
11.494	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
11.488	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.415	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
10.856	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
10.567	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
10.447	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
10.016	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
9.878	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
9.749	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
9.614	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
9.449	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
9.399	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.377	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
9.232	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
9.075	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
9.050	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
8.714	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
8.346	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
8.000	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
7.857	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
7.686	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
7.591	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.470	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
7.464	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
7.167	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
6.973	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
6.729	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
6.727	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.672	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
6.393	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.392	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
5.947	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
5.880	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.814	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
5.619	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
5.562	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
5.561	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.533	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
5.493	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
5.481	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
5.418	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
5.386	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
5.269	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
5.258	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
5.201	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
5.006	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.000	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
4.956	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
4.938	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
4.881	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
4.622	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.543	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
4.524	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.482	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
4.468	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
4.466	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.322	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
4.218	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
4.183	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
4.112	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
4.068	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
4.015	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
3.994	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
3.753	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
3.663	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.492	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
3.455	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
3.442	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.263	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
3.183	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
3.135	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
3.081	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
3.055	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
3.007	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.925	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
2.847	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
2.837	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
2.833	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
2.826	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
2.808	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
2.758	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
2.470	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
2.434	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
2.251	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
2.233	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
2.223	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
2.216	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
2.162	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
2.046	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.990	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
1.978	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
1.950	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
1.929	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
1.818	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.801	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
1.780	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
1.765	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
1.667	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
1.667	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
1.637	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
1.635	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
1.561	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
1.552	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
1.487	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
1.437	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
1.426	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
1.294	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
1.279	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
1.276	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
1.236	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.231	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
1.179	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
1.077	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
1.060	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
0.981	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
0.964	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
0.959	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.943	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
0.938	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
0.874	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
0.855	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.853	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.826	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.794	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.791	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
0.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.754	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.735	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.722	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
0.719	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
0.691	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
0.687	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
0.668	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
0.641	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.495	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
0.486	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
0.427	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
0.384	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.340	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
0.326	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
0.321	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
0.290	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
0.275	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.266	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
0.252	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.247	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.195	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.172	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
0.171	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.162	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.159	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.157	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.146	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.142	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.142	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.130	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.121	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.117	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.111	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.081	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
0.067	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
0.064	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.043	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
-0.024	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.053	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.089	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
-0.188	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
-0.236	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-0.291	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-0.358	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
-0.445	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
-0.488	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-0.613	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
-0.661	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
-0.667	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
-0.687	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-0.908	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-0.996	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
-1.022	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
-1.308	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
-1.457	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
-1.501	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-2.343	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
-2.410	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-2.495	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-2.623	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-2.641	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-2.800	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-3.164	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-3.193	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.281	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
-3.510	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-3.653	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.755	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-3.861	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-4.285	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-4.302	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-4.333	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
-4.738	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
-5.070	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-5.557	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-5.762	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-5.900	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-6.083	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-6.196	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-6.939	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
-7.042	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
-7.062	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
-7.768	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
-7.940	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-7.994	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-8.330	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-10.976	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-13.376	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
-14.823	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
-15.036	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
-18.440	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
-18.640	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
-28.006	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
-39.668	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-42.221	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-43.115	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
-46.204	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
-49.539	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary