PepeS

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

8.176		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
129.324	99.4%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
86.003	98.1%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
85.646	99.8%	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous
85.340	98.0%	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
83.836	99.6%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
78.393	96.4%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
73.355	95.1%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
70.909	99.8%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
70.168	99.4%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
69.989	98.7%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
67.767	99.1%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
60.876	99.9%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
58.496	90.8%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
57.999	91.1%	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
57.521	99.4%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
56.090	99.1%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
55.565	99.1%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
53.992	90.8%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
53.212	95.1%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
51.978	89.3%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
51.616	99.6%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
50.139	82.0%	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
48.478	80.6%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
47.994	98.5%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
47.853	99.8%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
47.793	77.8%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
47.030	96.9%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025)	Continuous
46.922	99.8%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
45.890	82.0%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
43.985	88.9%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
43.074	88.9%	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
42.988	83.0%	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
42.890	99.9%	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
39.379	99.8%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
39.034	80.4%	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
37.518	82.0%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
37.451	81.2%	What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025)	Continuous
37.060	99.7%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
36.621	91.7%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
36.037	99.7%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
35.416	96.9%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
35.310	99.2%	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
34.664	99.0%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
34.188	87.3%	What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
34.018	80.1%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
32.625	99.7%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
32.239	79.4%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
32.104	99.6%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
31.919	95.0%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
31.501	98.8%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
31.404	78.2%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
30.988	84.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
30.680	99.7%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
30.471	99.7%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
30.126	82.2%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
30.079	69.0%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
29.907	82.2%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
29.845	92.2%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
29.637	72.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
29.517	97.1%	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
29.059	98.5%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
28.441	69.4%	How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025?	Continuous
28.374	99.6%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
28.131	98.7%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
27.408	99.8%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
27.281	91.3%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
27.078	98.2%	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
26.985	89.8%	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
26.805	72.3%	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
26.747	93.0%	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
26.539	78.6%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
26.390	99.7%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
26.367	99.4%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
26.333	68.1%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
26.278	95.5%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
26.114	96.5%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
26.091	99.7%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
25.902	99.7%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
25.889	99.5%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
25.377	99.7%	Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?	Binary
25.340	46.7%	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
24.702	99.9%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
24.662	99.4%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
24.659	82.2%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
24.641	99.7%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
24.546	99.1%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
24.390	95.5%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
24.200	98.7%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
24.158	99.1%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
23.586	99.8%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
23.487	99.9%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
23.482	94.0%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
23.443	78.7%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
23.397	81.7%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
23.308	79.4%	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
23.262	98.2%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
23.219	39.3%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
22.982	99.9%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
22.862	99.9%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
22.552	85.3%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
22.335	99.2%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
22.138	99.6%	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
22.114	99.4%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
22.059	99.6%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
21.802	72.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
21.684	41.9%	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
21.301	99.1%	Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026)	Binary
21.119	99.4%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
21.025	79.2%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
20.953	80.5%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
20.639	99.4%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
20.632	98.9%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
20.532	66.2%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
20.529	86.6%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
20.487	99.7%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
20.375	85.8%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
20.361	99.6%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
20.196	93.2%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
20.148	99.6%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
19.932	87.3%	What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025)	Continuous
19.830	69.4%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
19.772	99.6%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
19.565	91.6%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
19.160	80.8%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
19.142	99.6%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
19.090	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
18.986	67.9%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
18.918	95.5%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
18.658	99.6%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
18.416	96.0%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
18.386	99.7%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
18.156	57.0%	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
17.973	72.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
17.833	79.2%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.685	99.7%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
17.662	81.5%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
17.566	98.1%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
17.528	98.1%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
17.483	99.8%	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
17.441	99.6%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
17.378	99.0%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
17.369	87.3%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
17.327	78.7%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
17.294	96.3%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
17.213	93.2%	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
16.959	46.7%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
16.718	38.4%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
16.652	82.2%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
16.562	99.3%	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
16.059	71.7%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
15.805	43.4%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
15.575	99.8%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
15.206	98.8%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
15.024	62.4%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
14.996	54.7%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.833	99.5%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
14.809	84.3%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
14.803	99.8%	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
14.660	99.8%	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	Continuous
14.597	99.6%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
14.428	95.3%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
14.363	99.2%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
14.357	99.8%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
14.346	99.9%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
14.242	99.5%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
14.057	88.1%	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
14.005	98.8%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
13.855	80.7%	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
13.814	99.9%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
13.653	99.7%	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
13.461	88.2%	What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025?	Continuous
13.460	99.8%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
13.349	81.7%	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.340	67.3%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
13.333	82.0%	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.231	98.1%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
12.929	96.0%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
12.879	99.9%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
12.831	98.0%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
12.606	81.9%	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2024)	Continuous
12.515	81.7%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
12.510	99.8%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
12.429	99.5%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
12.379	99.7%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
12.288	79.2%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
12.285	49.5%	How many dollars' worth of security assistance will the U.S. direct to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023?	Continuous
12.285	27.9%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
12.284	99.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
12.262	99.5%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
12.240	62.2%	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
12.149	98.2%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
12.133	99.7%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
12.081	99.9%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
12.054	96.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
12.050	99.7%	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
12.034	98.7%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
11.804	99.7%	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
11.670	87.0%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
11.630	98.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
11.553	99.7%	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
11.462	99.6%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
11.399	98.6%	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
11.367	99.7%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
11.355	99.4%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
11.344	86.6%	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
11.260	99.9%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
11.195	99.6%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
11.192	98.9%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
11.170	99.7%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
11.137	98.9%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
10.972	99.5%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
10.953	99.5%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
10.845	99.2%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
10.822	97.6%	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
10.774	99.6%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
10.756	96.8%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
10.755	76.0%	What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025?	Continuous
10.749	74.9%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
10.727	99.7%	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
10.664	99.8%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
10.635	99.7%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
10.480	37.2%	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
10.437	83.0%	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.345	90.1%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
10.130	55.4%	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
10.050	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
10.038	99.8%	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
10.029	99.3%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
10.008	21.6%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
10.000	64.5%	What will be the estimated fleet average fuel economy (in mpg) imposed by a regulatory agency in the United States for light vehicles manufactured in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
9.877	99.1%	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
9.869	38.2%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
9.815	99.9%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
9.815	19.9%	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
9.808	99.9%	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
9.556	99.9%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
9.477	99.6%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
9.457	99.5%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
9.439	99.5%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
9.428	78.1%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
9.350	99.8%	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
9.244	79.9%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
9.024	42.7%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
9.010	99.6%	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
8.920	99.6%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
8.916	72.0%	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
8.900	19.0%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
8.841	98.1%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
8.830	46.2%	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
8.822	78.1%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
8.780	89.6%	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
8.670	99.6%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
8.616	93.7%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
8.614	51.5%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
8.558	85.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
8.429	91.1%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
8.422	55.9%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
8.396	66.0%	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
8.362	99.6%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
8.339	99.7%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
8.285	99.7%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
8.273	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
8.208	86.9%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
8.206	98.3%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
8.182	94.2%	What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025)	Continuous
8.050	99.5%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
8.041	99.8%	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
8.013	99.0%	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
7.899	99.6%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
7.790	99.8%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.757	91.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.686	83.8%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
7.626	99.8%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.605	97.4%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
7.416	99.9%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.359	98.9%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
7.351	99.1%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
7.292	92.8%	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
7.223	98.1%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
7.220	99.8%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
7.080	90.7%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
7.026	23.0%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
6.979	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
6.891	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.826	81.7%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
6.747	80.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
6.575	81.7%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
6.310	99.7%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
6.198	49.1%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
6.156	98.6%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
6.094	99.7%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
6.086	93.2%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
6.027	92.5%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
5.995	23.9%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
5.976	99.7%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
5.953	38.2%	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
5.823	99.7%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
5.797	81.7%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.563	92.8%	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
5.491	96.6%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
5.487	41.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
5.342	99.6%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
5.321	99.9%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
5.314	88.7%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
5.289	99.9%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
5.177	59.0%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
4.988	99.3%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
4.928	56.4%	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
4.624	78.1%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
4.546	99.3%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
4.481	80.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
4.459	99.6%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
4.396	47.3%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
4.309	99.5%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
4.237	9.6%	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
4.215	93.2%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
4.193	99.1%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
4.185	99.6%	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
4.142	23.7%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
4.121	12.7%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
4.068	96.9%	How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
4.033	8.4%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
3.833	85.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
3.815	96.9%	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
3.777	90.7%	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
3.730	98.9%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
3.692	33.5%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
3.667	99.8%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.628	99.6%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
3.531	98.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
3.528	91.0%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
3.360	15.7%	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
3.344	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.334	95.1%	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
3.280	99.6%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
3.220	96.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
3.159	25.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
3.131	82.2%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
3.028	99.8%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
2.984	98.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.902	72.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
2.878	98.0%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
2.875	89.8%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
2.849	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.781	83.8%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
2.756	29.5%	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
2.622	13.1%	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
2.593	78.1%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
2.496	99.1%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
2.486	99.0%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
2.382	99.8%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
2.282	98.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
2.278	72.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
2.268	25.0%	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
2.253	8.7%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
2.245	92.1%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
2.215	98.5%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
2.118	64.8%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
2.072	30.4%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
1.982	80.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
1.957	83.8%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
1.951	22.9%	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
1.902	99.0%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
1.816	27.8%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
1.754	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.641	99.7%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
1.501	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.469	99.7%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
1.393	97.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.381	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
1.371	99.9%	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
1.353	99.6%	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
1.339	17.1%	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
1.250	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.166	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.094	83.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.072	77.2%	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.989	9.9%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
0.962	96.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.870	2.4%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.851	85.2%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
0.851	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.757	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.737	53.5%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
0.713	99.8%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.695	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.678	55.3%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.668	83.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.618	80.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
0.591	2.4%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.481	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.469	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
0.451	97.6%	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
0.434	82.0%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
0.385	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.375	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
0.123	73.3%	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.093	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
0.076	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.046	80.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
0.015	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
0.011	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
-0.001	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
-0.001	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
-0.060	85.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
-0.167	1.1%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.210	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
-0.237	11.2%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-0.655	84.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-0.730	99.8%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
-0.736	99.8%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-1.022	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
-1.103	19.7%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
-1.219	32.1%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-1.248	99.3%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-1.510	69.5%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
-1.798	98.7%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-1.991	72.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-2.001	75.9%	What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025?	Continuous
-2.124	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
-2.223	72.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-2.355	85.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
-2.471	23.9%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-2.483	42.3%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-2.786	83.7%	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
-3.131	99.7%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
-3.278	99.4%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-3.354	98.1%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-3.410	85.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
-3.566	72.8%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
-3.819	80.7%	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-3.920	98.6%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
-4.002	1.3%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
-4.356	66.1%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
-4.468	99.7%	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
-4.643	99.6%	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
-4.674	99.6%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-4.699	20.1%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-4.792	99.9%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-5.192	94.2%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
-6.114	62.2%	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
-6.796	99.4%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.622	97.3%	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
-8.001	41.1%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-8.223	99.3%	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
-9.429	98.9%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
-9.885	99.5%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-11.164	99.1%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
-11.309	98.5%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
-14.453	99.8%	How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?	Continuous
-15.022	99.9%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
-15.782	99.2%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-15.893	95.6%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
-16.004	99.2%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-18.009	99.9%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
-18.450	93.2%	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-18.492	99.7%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
-18.655	99.7%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
-18.812	99.8%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-20.035	97.8%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
-20.299	96.9%	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
-21.502	96.8%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-21.629	99.0%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-21.922	99.7%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-22.453	91.1%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
-23.870	57.3%	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
-25.042	66.5%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
-26.318	95.5%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
-26.554	82.2%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
-30.382	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-31.989	84.3%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-36.475	99.4%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-37.241	91.8%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
-38.017	85.4%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
-42.112	70.5%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
-53.866	34.0%	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
-53.972	99.5%	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
-57.766	99.7%	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
-60.352	46.7%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
-60.382	95.6%	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-62.839	98.3%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
-65.489	98.7%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-71.073	99.7%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-72.816	100.0%	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2024)	Continuous
-74.836	81.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-75.398	99.1%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-76.619	97.9%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
-81.061	99.8%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-83.717	99.8%	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
-84.730	99.7%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-93.114	99.8%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-100.188	97.8%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
-117.869	99.5%	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
-122.475	99.3%	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-126.249	99.7%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
-126.252	99.5%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-134.355	99.2%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
-172.364	93.1%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-210.236	99.6%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
-216.312	99.6%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary