H559

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.769	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.803	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
77.724	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
77.680	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
75.761	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
59.423	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
50.046	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
47.628	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
44.209	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
44.106	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
42.607	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
42.096	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
41.917	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
40.061	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
39.020	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
36.042	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
35.766	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
33.697	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
32.392	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
30.934	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
30.848	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
30.103	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
27.732	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
27.635	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.382	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
25.976	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
25.156	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
25.014	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
24.532	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
24.199	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
24.075	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
23.981	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
23.946	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
23.901	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
23.231	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
22.822	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
22.337	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
21.210	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
21.195	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
20.537	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
20.424	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
20.413	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
20.110	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
19.452	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
19.396	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
18.748	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
18.700	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
18.642	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
18.163	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
17.764	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
17.211	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
17.105	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
16.915	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
16.678	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
16.412	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.165	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
15.865	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
15.852	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
15.834	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
15.563	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
15.500	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
15.103	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
15.022	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
14.536	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
14.439	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
13.646	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
13.504	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2023)	Continuous
13.502	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
13.489	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
12.863	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
12.533	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
12.190	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
12.011	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
11.844	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
11.570	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.539	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
11.294	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
11.267	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
11.256	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
11.054	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
10.852	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
10.667	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
10.493	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
10.467	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
10.400	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
10.395	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
10.272	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
10.262	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
10.163	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
10.106	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
9.874	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
9.782	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
9.759	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
9.744	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
9.567	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
9.548	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
9.314	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
9.226	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
8.894	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
8.778	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.732	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
8.519	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
8.508	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
8.374	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
8.248	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
8.205	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.120	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
8.027	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
7.999	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.967	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
7.962	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
7.805	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
7.606	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
7.445	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
7.246	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
7.217	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
7.092	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
7.091	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
6.998	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.946	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
6.928	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
6.769	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
6.745	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
6.692	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
6.518	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
6.506	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
6.418	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
6.352	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
6.244	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.236	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
6.212	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
6.147	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.034	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
6.019	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
5.903	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
5.901	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
5.853	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
5.848	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
5.800	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
5.739	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
5.576	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
5.547	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
5.490	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
5.387	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
5.361	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
5.258	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
5.222	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
5.196	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
5.142	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.084	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
4.943	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
4.921	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
4.920	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
4.891	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
4.882	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
4.849	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
4.768	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
4.754	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
4.739	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
4.699	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.669	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
4.617	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
4.605	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.513	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.455	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
4.379	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.372	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
4.364	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
4.330	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
4.134	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
4.125	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
4.047	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
3.990	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
3.924	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
3.912	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.773	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
3.752	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
3.661	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
3.577	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
3.556	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
3.555	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.328	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
3.143	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
3.056	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
2.949	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
2.935	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
2.899	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
2.845	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
2.808	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
2.721	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
2.553	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
2.552	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
2.548	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
2.467	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.450	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
2.391	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.374	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
2.372	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.288	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
2.267	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
2.115	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
2.065	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.827	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
1.768	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
1.727	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
1.723	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.691	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
1.612	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
1.516	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
1.510	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.457	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
1.376	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
1.317	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
1.245	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
1.235	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
1.178	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
1.166	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
1.159	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
1.126	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
1.084	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
1.030	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
0.971	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
0.931	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
0.909	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
0.885	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.883	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
0.867	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
0.814	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
0.754	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
0.696	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
0.664	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
0.625	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.554	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
0.525	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.469	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
0.425	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
0.407	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
0.407	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.317	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.288	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.280	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.272	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.250	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
0.214	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.203	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.102	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
0.033	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
0.026	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.018	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
0.018	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
0.010	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
-0.057	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
-0.057	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
-0.084	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-0.097	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
-0.098	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
-0.101	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
-0.107	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
-0.122	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
-0.122	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
-0.147	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
-0.149	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-0.220	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
-0.224	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
-0.293	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
-0.304	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
-0.345	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
-0.383	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
-0.429	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
-0.434	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
-0.438	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
-0.443	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
-0.471	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
-0.477	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
-0.482	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-0.488	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
-0.491	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
-0.492	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
-0.519	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
-0.520	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
-0.523	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
-0.524	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
-0.541	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
-0.541	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
-0.554	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-0.554	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
-0.562	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
-0.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
-0.595	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
-0.599	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
-0.612	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
-0.618	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
-0.625	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
-0.648	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
-0.671	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
-0.692	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
-0.788	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
-1.012	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-1.013	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
-1.259	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
-1.358	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
-1.468	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
-1.531	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-1.557	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-1.595	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
-1.759	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
-1.861	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
-1.874	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
-1.881	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
-1.902	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
-2.028	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-2.089	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-2.126	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-2.157	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
-2.443	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-2.556	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-2.651	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
-2.749	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
-3.265	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-3.389	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
-3.659	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
-3.716	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-3.998	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
-4.402	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
-4.640	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-4.667	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
-4.816	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
-5.219	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-5.228	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-5.244	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
-5.362	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-5.385	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-5.875	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-6.169	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
-6.470	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
-6.470	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-6.851	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
-6.977	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-7.085	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
-7.867	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-8.244	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-8.374	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
-9.688	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (January 2023)	Continuous
-9.858	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-10.367	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-11.117	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
-12.556	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-13.630	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-14.626	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-15.070	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-15.767	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-20.964	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
-24.109	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-26.503	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-30.223	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous