vakrasiak

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.05		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
137.295	99.9%	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
136.111	95.9%	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
119.964	99.4%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
60.958	99.8%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
58.411	99.3%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
55.770	99.8%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
51.894	60.1%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
48.138	99.8%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
47.340	100.0%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
47.057	76.2%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
47.046	72.2%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
46.860	99.3%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
45.491	93.6%	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
41.164	99.9%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
37.908	99.8%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
37.808	81.9%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
37.686	45.4%	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
37.643	97.2%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
34.256	99.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
33.483	99.7%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
32.066	99.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
30.953	90.5%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
30.407	99.9%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
27.492	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
25.484	99.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
24.814	73.8%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2023)	Continuous
24.254	98.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
23.265	90.0%	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
23.068	99.9%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
22.255	99.9%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
22.008	99.3%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2022)	Continuous
21.838	44.2%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
21.536	90.6%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
21.089	98.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
19.639	98.1%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
19.549	98.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
19.105	96.8%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
18.802	98.9%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
18.791	98.7%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
18.567	98.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
18.294	99.7%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
18.261	93.7%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
15.986	60.4%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
15.328	25.8%	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
15.047	81.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
14.648	99.9%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
14.275	94.1%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
14.125	99.7%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
13.799	100.0%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
13.082	88.3%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
13.054	96.3%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
12.969	99.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
12.889	99.4%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
12.822	49.5%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
12.170	95.1%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.931	95.1%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.887	99.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
11.704	99.9%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
11.375	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
11.348	95.1%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.325	99.8%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
11.213	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
11.054	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
10.961	99.8%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
10.832	77.6%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
10.698	70.6%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
10.606	60.9%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
10.340	76.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
10.151	99.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
10.111	98.7%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.073	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
9.443	91.1%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
9.370	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
9.366	99.3%	What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024?	Continuous
9.321	98.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
9.312	99.6%	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
9.299	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
9.121	99.7%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
8.940	99.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
8.375	99.4%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
8.328	96.5%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
8.181	98.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
8.079	87.2%	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
7.966	70.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
7.863	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
7.854	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
7.827	99.7%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
7.757	96.5%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
7.574	99.9%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
7.539	76.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
7.418	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
7.294	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
7.225	89.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
7.065	98.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
7.004	99.8%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
6.995	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
6.839	99.1%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
6.767	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
6.667	95.1%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.571	98.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
6.403	99.8%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
6.356	100.0%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
5.878	89.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
5.875	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
5.865	14.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
5.849	99.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
5.764	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
5.731	99.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
5.720	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
5.699	70.6%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.648	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
5.569	100.0%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
5.306	49.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
5.292	98.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
5.186	77.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
5.124	77.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
4.896	93.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.876	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.804	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
4.739	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
4.692	95.3%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
4.654	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
4.538	77.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
4.497	98.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
4.425	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
4.356	100.0%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.298	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
4.218	99.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
4.113	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
4.022	86.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
3.868	97.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
3.707	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
3.189	99.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
3.057	60.1%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
3.045	100.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
2.985	100.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
2.884	19.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
2.862	100.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
2.838	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
2.822	96.7%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
2.813	91.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.784	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
2.766	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
2.765	51.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
2.741	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
2.738	98.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
2.631	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.513	92.3%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
2.485	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
2.407	95.1%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
2.357	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
2.276	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
2.241	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
2.171	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
2.132	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
2.113	92.3%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
2.010	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
1.970	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
1.959	100.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
1.827	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.770	99.3%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
1.647	96.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.528	99.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.506	70.6%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
1.462	100.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
1.387	75.7%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
1.374	70.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
1.340	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.340	92.3%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
1.283	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
1.275	70.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.233	99.6%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.176	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.173	4.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party)	Continuous
1.056	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
1.050	92.3%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
0.962	38.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
0.956	95.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.928	92.3%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
0.900	96.8%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
0.890	91.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.876	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.860	49.7%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
0.851	25.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
0.823	100.0%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
0.797	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
0.772	25.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.746	15.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
0.636	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.636	70.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.633	19.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
0.560	94.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.557	18.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.556	96.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.551	70.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.540	71.5%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
0.537	65.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.512	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
0.505	14.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
0.481	100.0%	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
0.471	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.453	1.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
0.402	22.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.393	74.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.373	4.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales)	Continuous
0.351	74.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.332	86.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.328	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.327	0.5%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
0.325	87.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.319	22.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.295	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
0.282	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.276	1.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
0.267	1.6%	Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House?	Binary
0.209	1.2%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
0.193	0.5%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
0.174	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
0.143	47.5%	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
0.114	51.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.113	1.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
0.113	5.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
0.098	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.092	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.083	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.065	99.8%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
0.017	6.9%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
-0.031	0.5%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.039	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
-0.073	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
-0.140	4.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-0.144	4.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
-0.269	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
-0.276	9.3%	Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.305	0.5%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.404	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
-0.522	99.3%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
-0.554	0.6%	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
-0.637	1.6%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
-0.765	95.2%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-0.810	51.3%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
-0.991	6.3%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
-1.048	98.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
-1.051	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
-1.145	91.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
-1.254	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
-1.302	92.3%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
-1.315	4.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party)	Continuous
-1.532	99.2%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
-1.693	99.7%	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
-1.815	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
-1.929	61.8%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
-2.285	71.4%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
-2.333	100.0%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
-2.449	98.7%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
-2.460	85.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
-2.840	60.1%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-3.035	99.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
-3.068	96.0%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
-3.187	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
-3.388	92.3%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
-3.581	21.2%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
-3.843	81.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
-3.952	66.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots)	Binary
-4.058	66.2%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
-4.224	81.3%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
-4.435	77.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary
-5.982	99.9%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
-6.499	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
-6.739	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
-6.868	79.6%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-7.007	98.8%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
-7.136	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
-8.148	66.5%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
-9.686	99.9%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.272	77.6%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
-11.224	98.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-11.364	99.9%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
-11.837	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
-12.283	77.6%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
-12.514	100.0%	What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-13.575	64.6%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
-13.675	46.5%	Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?	Binary
-14.228	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
-14.236	91.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
-14.294	98.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
-14.903	95.1%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-15.692	99.9%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
-17.546	98.7%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
-18.028	100.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
-18.957	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
-18.966	100.0%	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
-20.201	99.9%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
-22.169	21.8%	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
-22.273	99.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
-22.373	98.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
-23.466	100.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
-24.102	95.1%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
-24.696	99.8%	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
-24.780	97.5%	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
-24.794	98.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
-26.982	76.9%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-28.677	98.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
-28.810	99.9%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
-30.490	99.8%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
-31.937	86.0%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
-33.601	99.5%	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
-33.982	99.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-39.976	99.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
-40.658	100.0%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-46.417	45.3%	Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?	Binary
-53.188	70.9%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-64.251	99.8%	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
-77.988	99.8%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
-118.906	91.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary