Zaldath

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.032	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
104.973	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
53.247	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
41.613	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
34.448	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2025 questions)	Continuous
32.359	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
31.677	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
29.808	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
27.296	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
27.034	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.934	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
25.802	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.226	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.627	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
23.831	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
23.499	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
23.267	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2032 questions)	Continuous
23.164	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
21.998	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
21.802	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
21.671	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
21.048	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
20.076	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
19.759	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
18.721	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.857	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
17.745	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
17.558	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
17.533	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
17.291	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2052 questions)	Continuous
17.156	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
16.152	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2122 questions)	Continuous
15.829	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
15.726	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
14.261	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
14.215	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
14.123	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
13.595	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
12.998	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
12.462	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
12.272	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
12.251	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.020	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
11.993	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
11.919	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
11.813	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
11.806	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.561	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
11.355	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
11.019	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
10.710	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
10.428	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
9.970	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2023 questions)	Continuous
9.795	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
9.592	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
9.527	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
9.407	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
9.400	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.320	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
9.209	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
9.180	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
9.153	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
8.686	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
8.639	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
8.558	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
8.384	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.196	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
8.118	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
8.039	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
8.010	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
7.914	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
7.908	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.892	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
7.815	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
7.739	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
7.723	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
7.568	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
7.548	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
7.151	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
7.051	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
7.048	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
6.869	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
6.692	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
6.656	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.574	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.569	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
6.509	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
6.427	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
6.171	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
6.054	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.943	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
5.696	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
5.424	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
5.371	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
5.057	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
4.731	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
4.599	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.599	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.423	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
4.213	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.196	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
4.018	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
4.009	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.988	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
3.818	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
3.812	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
3.707	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
3.504	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.244	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
3.147	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
2.851	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
2.789	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.696	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.665	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.410	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.388	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
2.286	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.274	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
2.264	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
2.110	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
1.907	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.742	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
1.668	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.613	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.518	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
1.444	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
1.311	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
1.267	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.960	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
0.956	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.831	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
0.780	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
0.542	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
0.527	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.416	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.377	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
0.196	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.101	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
0.100	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
0.048	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
0.039	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
0.010	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
-0.234	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
-0.641	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
-0.656	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-1.124	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-2.124	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-2.358	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-5.048	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-6.146	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
-6.689	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
-6.998	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.028	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-10.934	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-18.507	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-25.066	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-25.567	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary