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Contests

This page shows the obsolete contests. They were superseded in April 2021 by Tournaments.

Contest Start End Questions
Forecasting AI Progress — Bayes Prize Leaderboard Dec 13, 2020 Apr 16, 2021 81
Consensus Forecasting . . .
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament I Feb 17, 2020 Jun 17, 2020 52
Li Wenliang Tournament 2 . . .
Covid-19 Tournament Round 2 . . .
Cryptocurrency Prediction Contest Sep 14, 2017 Dec 1, 2017 24
Forecasting AI Progress — Deep Learning Round Feb 13, 2021 Apr 16, 2021 30
El Paso Series . . .
COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [first tournament] . . .
COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [second tournament] . . .
Foresight 2020 contest Oct 14, 2019 Oct 31, 2020 13
Forecasting AI Progress — Hill Climbing Round Jan 13, 2021 Mar 15, 2021 29
Lockdown Tournament . . .
Forecasting AI Progress — Maximum Likelihood Round Dec 9, 2020 Jun 15, 2021 29
Road to recovery Oct 1, 2020 Feb 28, 2021 16
Salk Tournament . . .

Forecasting AI Progress is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to predicting advances in artificial intelligence.

The Maximum Likelihood Round is aimed at forecasting key AI questions over timeframes of 6-months and longer timeframes (over 2 years out). Note that the questions that span longer timeframes are not intended to resolve within 6 months. There is a total prize pool of $7,000 for this round.

Rank Player Points Questions
1 datscilly 1325 43
2 Cory 1263 43
3 Vang 1249 45
4 PepeS 1198 44
5 SimonM 1076 45
6 elifland 856 37
7 Zweihander 645 45
8 TeeJayKay 626 24
9 galen 610 34
10 Pablo 605 22
11 2e10e122 600 35
12 Bob_Jacobs 555 35
13 MaciekK 532 21
14 Reprisal 498 25
15 ItsRyan 488 15
16 Alexander230 395 24
17 Jotto 358 23
18 lars3loff 335 18
19 JAJMLP 333 31
20 JonathanShi 309 20
21 chipsie 300 10
22 joshyou 292 9
23 Jgalt 289 19
24 taskaryan 255 10
25 dosthus 244 19
26 nostramus 236 14
27 Jrob6122 199 14
28 mattvdm 191 13
29 Sergio 186 7
30 jack 179 11
31 benz 144 1
32 schelling42 142 2
33 Takeshi 137 8
34 ScottLeibrand 128 3
35 schkolne 122 10
36 sergeant1337 121 2
37 yobi 117 3
38 halvorz 109 4
39 James 108 4
40 nextbigfuture 101 11
41 ClayGraubard 98 7
42 AloanCloud 90 4
43 EvanHarper 80 13
44 JasperGötting 80 6
45 beala 79 3
46 prowler 78 1
47 alexlitz 78 9
48 JamesEvans 76 1
49 bryanleroylewis 74 6
50 pg3516 69 1
51 brp 68 5
52 TheObsoleteMan 68 3
53 foo 65 10
54 SamtheSamurai 64 1
55 minnow_beacon 60 2
56 Mohican 59 1
57 jgil 59 7
58 tsmilton 57 1
59 isaacdunn 55 9
60 jjbalisanyukasmith 55 1
61 eidanjacob 55 9
62 BrentR 54 3
63 redcell254 53 1
64 sriniv.venkat 50 15
65 jgoss1074 47 1
66 koe 46 1
67 ManyEyed 45 1
68 arun2642 44 4
69 kermit17 42 1
70 StevenG 41 1
71 PeterWildeford 40 18
72 zenblews 39 1
73 nickkees 37 7
74 citizen 36 16
75 gph 36 1
76 nathan.j.mcdougall 34 1
77 TrevorH 34 1
78 ege_erdil 34 1
79 Charles 30 1
80 MJ 29 1
81 matei.ionita 27 1
82 JohnBeshir 26 2
83 Physburgh 25 1
84 wleightond 25 2
85 jacobgerlach 24 1
86 jimmy.p.watts 24 1
87 M4 23 1
88 ChALkeR 23 3
89 Shiremonkey 23 1
90 dyoshida 22 1
91 Caelestis 22 5
92 isaacbg227 21 2
93 meril 20 1
94 isinlor 19 3
95 oakley.wall 19 1
96 jox 18 1
97 wobblybobby 16 1
98 Brick.Tamland 14 4
99 samuelraasch 14 1
100 ctlcactuS 13 1