Contests
This page shows the obsolete contests. They were superseded in April 2021 by Tournaments.
Contest | Start | End | Questions |
---|---|---|---|
Forecasting AI Progress — Bayes Prize Leaderboard | Dec 13, 2020 | Apr 16, 2021 | 81 |
Consensus Forecasting | . | . | . |
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament I | Feb 17, 2020 | Jun 17, 2020 | 52 |
Li Wenliang Tournament 2 | . | . | . |
Covid-19 Tournament Round 2 | . | . | . |
Cryptocurrency Prediction Contest | Sep 14, 2017 | Dec 1, 2017 | 24 |
Forecasting AI Progress — Deep Learning Round | Feb 13, 2021 | Apr 16, 2021 | 30 |
El Paso Series | . | . | . |
COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [first tournament] | . | . | . |
COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [second tournament] | . | . | . |
Foresight 2020 contest | Oct 14, 2019 | Oct 31, 2020 | 13 |
Forecasting AI Progress — Hill Climbing Round | Jan 13, 2021 | Mar 15, 2021 | 29 |
Lockdown Tournament | . | . | . |
Forecasting AI Progress — Maximum Likelihood Round | Dec 9, 2020 | Jun 15, 2021 | 29 |
Road to recovery | Oct 1, 2020 | Feb 28, 2021 | 16 |
Salk Tournament | . | . | . |
Forecasting AI Progress
is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to
predicting advances in artificial intelligence.
The Maximum Likelihood Round is aimed at forecasting key AI questions
over timeframes of 6-months and longer timeframes (over 2 years out). Note
that the questions that span longer timeframes are not intended to resolve
within 6 months. There is a total prize pool of $7,000 for this round.
Rank | Player | Points | Questions |
---|---|---|---|
1 | datscilly | 1325 | 43 |
2 | Cory | 1263 | 43 |
3 | Vang | 1249 | 45 |
4 | PepeS | 1198 | 44 |
5 | SimonM | 1076 | 45 |
6 | elifland | 856 | 37 |
7 | Zweihander | 645 | 45 |
8 | TeeJayKay | 626 | 24 |
9 | galen | 610 | 34 |
10 | Pablo | 605 | 22 |
11 | 2e10e122 | 600 | 35 |
12 | Bob_Jacobs | 555 | 35 |
13 | MaciekK | 532 | 21 |
14 | Reprisal | 498 | 25 |
15 | ItsRyan | 488 | 15 |
16 | Alexander230 | 395 | 24 |
17 | Jotto | 358 | 23 |
18 | lars3loff | 335 | 18 |
19 | JAJMLP | 333 | 31 |
20 | JonathanShi | 309 | 20 |
21 | chipsie | 300 | 10 |
22 | joshyou | 292 | 9 |
23 | Jgalt | 289 | 19 |
24 | taskaryan | 255 | 10 |
25 | dosthus | 244 | 19 |
26 | nostramus | 236 | 14 |
27 | Jrob6122 | 199 | 14 |
28 | mattvdm | 191 | 13 |
29 | Sergio | 186 | 7 |
30 | jack | 179 | 11 |
31 | benz | 144 | 1 |
32 | schelling42 | 142 | 2 |
33 | Takeshi | 137 | 8 |
34 | ScottLeibrand | 128 | 3 |
35 | schkolne | 122 | 10 |
36 | sergeant1337 | 121 | 2 |
37 | yobi | 117 | 3 |
38 | halvorz | 109 | 4 |
39 | James | 108 | 4 |
40 | nextbigfuture | 101 | 11 |
41 | ClayGraubard | 98 | 7 |
42 | AloanCloud | 90 | 4 |
43 | EvanHarper | 80 | 13 |
44 | JasperGötting | 80 | 6 |
45 | beala | 79 | 3 |
46 | prowler | 78 | 1 |
47 | alexlitz | 78 | 9 |
48 | JamesEvans | 76 | 1 |
49 | bryanleroylewis | 74 | 6 |
50 | pg3516 | 69 | 1 |
51 | brp | 68 | 5 |
52 | TheObsoleteMan | 68 | 3 |
53 | foo | 65 | 10 |
54 | SamtheSamurai | 64 | 1 |
55 | minnow_beacon | 60 | 2 |
56 | Mohican | 59 | 1 |
57 | jgil | 59 | 7 |
58 | tsmilton | 57 | 1 |
59 | isaacdunn | 55 | 9 |
60 | jjbalisanyukasmith | 55 | 1 |
61 | eidanjacob | 55 | 9 |
62 | BrentR | 54 | 3 |
63 | redcell254 | 53 | 1 |
64 | sriniv.venkat | 50 | 15 |
65 | jgoss1074 | 47 | 1 |
66 | koe | 46 | 1 |
67 | ManyEyed | 45 | 1 |
68 | arun2642 | 44 | 4 |
69 | kermit17 | 42 | 1 |
70 | StevenG | 41 | 1 |
71 | PeterWildeford | 40 | 18 |
72 | zenblews | 39 | 1 |
73 | nickkees | 37 | 7 |
74 | citizen | 36 | 16 |
75 | gph | 36 | 1 |
76 | nathan.j.mcdougall | 34 | 1 |
77 | TrevorH | 34 | 1 |
78 | ege_erdil | 34 | 1 |
79 | Charles | 30 | 1 |
80 | MJ | 29 | 1 |
81 | matei.ionita | 27 | 1 |
82 | JohnBeshir | 26 | 2 |
83 | Physburgh | 25 | 1 |
84 | wleightond | 25 | 2 |
85 | jacobgerlach | 24 | 1 |
86 | jimmy.p.watts | 24 | 1 |
87 | M4 | 23 | 1 |
88 | ChALkeR | 23 | 3 |
89 | Shiremonkey | 23 | 1 |
90 | dyoshida | 22 | 1 |
91 | Caelestis | 22 | 5 |
92 | isaacbg227 | 21 | 2 |
93 | meril | 20 | 1 |
94 | isinlor | 19 | 3 |
95 | oakley.wall | 19 | 1 |
96 | jox | 18 | 1 |
97 | wobblybobby | 16 | 1 |
98 | Brick.Tamland | 14 | 4 |
99 | samuelraasch | 14 | 1 |
100 | ctlcactuS | 13 | 1 |