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Contests

This page shows the obsolete contests. They were superseded in April 2021 by Tournaments.

Contest Start End Questions
Forecasting AI Progress — Bayes Prize Leaderboard Dec 13, 2020 Apr 16, 2021 81
Consensus Forecasting . . .
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament I Feb 17, 2020 Jun 17, 2020 52
Li Wenliang Tournament 2 . . .
Covid-19 Tournament Round 2 . . .
Cryptocurrency Prediction Contest Sep 14, 2017 Dec 1, 2017 24
Forecasting AI Progress — Deep Learning Round Feb 13, 2021 Apr 16, 2021 30
El Paso Series . . .
COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [first tournament] . . .
COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [second tournament] . . .
Foresight 2020 contest Oct 14, 2019 Oct 31, 2020 13
Forecasting AI Progress — Hill Climbing Round Jan 13, 2021 Mar 15, 2021 29
Lockdown Tournament . . .
Forecasting AI Progress — Maximum Likelihood Round Dec 9, 2020 Jun 15, 2021 29
Road to recovery Oct 1, 2020 Feb 28, 2021 16
Salk Tournament . . .

Metaculus is hosting the Road to recovery forecasting tournament, a forecasting tournament on mobility trends in the United States.

Our aim with this tournament is to generate accurate predictions on US mobility trends to assist with transit planning during our current turbulent moment.

In addition to the reputation benefits you will accrue for out-predicting the Metaculus crowd, we will award prizes to each of the top four predictors:

These are to be awarded to the users with the highest number of points on the tournament's end date.

There is one small catch: in order to be eligible for prizes, you'll need comment explaining the reasoning behind your forecasts or significant updates. Specifically, we require you to share your reasoning on at least 5 occasions over the course of the tournament.

Rank Player Points Questions
1 Pablo 1488 16
2 alexrjl 1481 16
3 mattvdm 1420 16
4 datscilly 1386 16
5 PepeS 1379 16
6 JonathanShi 1362 16
7 elifland 1313 16
8 Vang 1209 16
9 Cory 1183 16
10 SimonM 1165 16
11 Reprisal 1134 15
12 lars3loff 1119 16
13 galen 1101 16
14 onl 1054 16
15 Zweihander 1051 16
16 Jgalt 1037 16
17 isinlor 843 16
18 isaacdunn 800 16
19 Bob_Jacobs 796 12
20 Alexander230 726 16
21 foo 721 12
22 ethulin 691 8
23 PeterWildeford 651 13
24 Bernhard 650 16
25 2e10e122 646 16
26 jack 640 12
27 Pazzaz 629 13
28 AvrahamEisenberg 623 13
29 Mn_geneer 533 10
30 JAJMLP 511 9
31 Natalia_Mendonca 446 11
32 alexlitz 385 5
33 OughtCommunityPrior 346 6
34 nextbigfuture 333 9
35 mavrande 328 9
36 yagudin 328 9
37 helpermonkey 303 7
38 traviswfisher 297 6
39 thomasr75 284 4
40 arun2642 284 9
41 chris.j.cundy 279 7
42 preskitt91 271 3
43 beala 245 5
44 bc219 245 5
45 Bob_Muller 244 5
46 Jotto 235 5
47 berekuk 232 3
48 felawinkelmolen 231 5
49 ChALkeR 223 4
50 James 214 6
51 converse 211 5
52 Roon 208 4
53 schelling42 208 8
54 james.jj.barry 206 4
55 steven0461 201 5
56 oughtpublic 195 6
57 FinanAdamson 195 6
58 ItsRyan 195 5
59 jds_newton 194 4
60 jvonk 189 5
61 krtnu 186 11
62 ege_erdil 162 4
63 elikoga 160 5
64 RKSingh28 151 5
65 BrianGoodrich 147 4
66 PMC_UwU 147 4
67 Fedop 138 4
68 lauren 133 3
69 davidmanheim 116 6
70 Nichevo 110 4
71 pagouy 108 2
72 niklaswik 108 4
73 AloanCloud 102 5
74 nwj 99 1
75 SamiM 97 4
76 lifi 92 3
77 randallburns 85 2
78 clearthis 82 1
79 TeeJayKay 80 2
80 sbdor 79 1
81 goktanyaman 75 1
82 mxshn 64 2
83 gusperezian 62 1
84 Jeremiah 56 1
85 andrewjbrereton31 50 1
86 juckser 48 1
87 kellersphoenix 44 1
88 CalebParikh 43 1
89 thmt 41 1
90 nickgentile01 40 1
91 Lavi 40 1
92 danrrobb 38 1
93 mishasamin 37 1
94 Tolpuddle 35 1
95 Charles 33 1
96 HadiKhan 32 1
97 John Gardiner 31 1
98 StevenLochner 30 1
99 antony.trupe 28 1
100 fullyou0798 27 1