94.521 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
85.563 | Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
84.755 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
80.602 | Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
80.239 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso) | Binary |
77.447 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan) | Binary |
77.447 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce) | Binary |
77.447 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan) | Binary |
77.053 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel) | Binary |
77.002 | Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023? | Binary |
74.916 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
74.808 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül) | Binary |
73.467 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek) | Binary |
73.467 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller) | Binary |
73.467 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener) | Binary |
72.934 | Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
72.669 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP) | Binary |
72.172 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos) | Binary |
72.112 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu) | Binary |
72.112 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan) | Binary |
72.111 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu) | Binary |
71.924 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia) | Binary |
70.741 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan) | Binary |
70.741 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal) | Binary |
70.741 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan) | Binary |
70.740 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli) | Binary |
70.740 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu) | Binary |
70.740 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş) | Binary |
70.602 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül) | Binary |
69.911 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu) | Binary |
69.695 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens) | Binary |
69.094 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia) | Binary |
68.493 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens) | Binary |
67.610 | What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023? | Continuous |
67.277 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU) | Binary |
66.460 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England) | Binary |
65.684 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden) | Binary |
65.277 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
64.644 | Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party? | Binary |
64.423 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan) | Binary |
64.296 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
64.253 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens) | Binary |
63.814 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
63.771 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
63.174 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
62.805 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
62.401 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands) | Binary |
62.394 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa) | Binary |
62.394 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba) | Binary |
62.347 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France) | Binary |
62.125 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema) | Binary |
61.166 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |
59.932 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
59.910 | Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024? | Binary |
59.504 | Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023? | Binary |
59.135 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
59.135 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
58.979 | Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024 | Binary |
58.716 | Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
58.453 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco) | Binary |
58.249 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner) | Binary |
58.232 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica) | Binary |
57.797 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers) | Binary |
56.406 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas) | Binary |
56.153 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
55.882 | Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023? | Binary |
55.807 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark) | Binary |
55.584 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria) | Binary |
55.572 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
54.812 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
54.046 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
53.652 | Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023? | Binary |
53.649 | Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate? | Binary |
53.521 | Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
53.314 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
53.233 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
53.066 | Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023? | Binary |
52.768 | Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023? | Binary |
52.601 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
52.424 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | Binary |
52.423 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
52.131 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa) | Binary |
52.058 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
52.042 | Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th? | Binary |
51.939 | Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023? | Binary |
51.720 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
50.967 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
50.871 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
50.217 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway) | Binary |
50.025 | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
49.995 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Binary |
49.885 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
49.878 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland) | Binary |
48.357 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition) | Binary |
48.357 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation) | Binary |
48.357 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050) | Binary |
48.357 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement) | Binary |
48.357 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15) | Binary |
48.357 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left) | Binary |
48.308 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left) | Binary |
47.850 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars) | Binary |
47.721 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
46.104 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
45.705 | Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023? | Binary |
45.368 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams) | Binary |
44.674 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea) | Binary |
44.081 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
44.066 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
43.627 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
43.179 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS)) | Binary |
42.882 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes) | Binary |
42.568 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
42.299 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy) | Binary |
42.073 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina) | Binary |
42.072 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil) | Binary |
42.031 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
41.617 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
41.345 | Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024? | Binary |
41.275 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
41.271 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed) | Binary |
41.126 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP) | Binary |
40.859 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States) | Binary |
40.608 | Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023? | Binary |
40.573 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti) | Binary |
40.512 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg) | Binary |
40.158 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
40.097 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | Binary |
39.956 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | Binary |
39.785 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | Binary |
39.695 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China) | Binary |
39.606 | Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024? | Binary |
39.396 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
39.237 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
39.132 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal) | Binary |
38.772 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
38.731 | Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season? | Binary |
38.370 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
38.308 | Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
38.271 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany) | Binary |
37.561 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
37.184 | Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7? | Binary |
36.766 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada) | Binary |
36.740 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
36.674 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
36.499 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić) | Binary |
35.335 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | Binary |
35.180 | Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate? | Binary |
35.006 | Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st? | Binary |
34.365 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Binary |
33.829 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines) | Binary |
33.702 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
33.694 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers) | Binary |
33.562 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis) | Binary |
33.360 | [Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023? | Binary |
33.260 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
33.179 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
33.126 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand) | Binary |
33.080 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
32.826 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar) | Binary |
32.562 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | Binary |
32.244 | Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023? | Binary |
31.978 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | Binary |
31.931 | Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections? | Binary |
31.874 | Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
31.807 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
31.709 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
31.634 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
31.630 | Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023? | Binary |
31.629 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs) | Binary |
31.424 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama) | Binary |
31.406 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei) | Binary |
31.332 | Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
30.896 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
30.789 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
30.751 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils) | Binary |
30.725 | In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012? | Binary |
30.469 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita) | Binary |
30.266 | Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023? | Binary |
30.051 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
29.504 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan) | Binary |
29.473 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
29.329 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
29.322 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |
29.179 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti) | Binary |
29.166 | Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting? | Binary |
29.115 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
29.030 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
28.656 | Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List? | Binary |
28.501 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman) | Binary |
28.406 | ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023? | Binary |
28.276 | Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023? | Binary |
28.015 | Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023? | Binary |
27.953 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
27.952 | Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
27.915 | Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024? | Binary |
27.890 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Binary |
27.730 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
27.609 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
27.548 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
27.539 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
27.436 | Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024? | Binary |
27.318 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
27.277 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
27.216 | Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023? | Binary |
26.989 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam) | Binary |
26.918 | Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again? | Binary |
26.804 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks) | Binary |
26.802 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
26.598 | Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize? | Binary |
26.386 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland) | Binary |
26.356 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
26.356 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
26.263 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R)) | Binary |
26.222 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
26.075 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
25.983 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
25.944 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023? | Continuous |
25.920 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai) | Binary |
25.423 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
25.240 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
24.939 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66) | Binary |
24.719 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.631 | US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
24.566 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
24.553 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich) | Binary |
24.507 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
24.087 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | Binary |
23.553 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
23.519 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
23.426 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox) | Binary |
23.147 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0) | Binary |
22.949 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica) | Binary |
22.948 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia) | Binary |
22.672 | Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law? | Binary |
22.661 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB) | Binary |
22.624 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Binary |
22.178 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
21.934 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos) | Binary |
21.844 | Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023? | Binary |
21.532 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |
21.469 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
21.458 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1) | Binary |
21.285 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers) | Binary |
21.283 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | Binary |
21.278 | Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class? | Binary |
21.224 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5) | Binary |
20.683 | Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023? | Binary |
20.548 | Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th? | Binary |
20.510 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche) | Binary |
20.497 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
20.465 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform) | Binary |
20.315 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA) | Binary |
20.307 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins) | Binary |
20.274 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
20.180 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings) | Binary |
19.861 | Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023? | Binary |
19.749 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1) | Binary |
19.476 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings) | Binary |
19.429 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
19.408 | Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year? | Binary |
19.376 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning) | Binary |
19.357 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
19.114 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD) | Binary |
18.861 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi) | Binary |
18.725 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
18.511 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild) | Binary |
18.494 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
17.991 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
17.964 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
17.877 | Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)? | Binary |
17.799 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | Binary |
17.599 | Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024? | Binary |
17.377 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
16.856 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa) | Binary |
16.837 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei) | Binary |
16.819 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R)) | Binary |
16.744 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
16.633 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
16.633 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
16.578 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | Binary |
16.396 | Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? | Binary |
15.673 | Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023? | Binary |
15.537 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
15.413 | Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country? | Binary |
15.397 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC) | Binary |
15.253 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5) | Binary |
15.025 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL) | Binary |
14.542 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
14.517 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
14.421 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.270 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R)) | Binary |
13.848 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.699 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0) | Binary |
13.631 | Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023? | Binary |
13.558 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
13.515 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies) | Binary |
13.151 | Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023? | Binary |
12.954 | How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023? | Continuous |
12.829 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R)) | Binary |
12.236 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
11.991 | Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
11.920 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023? | Binary |
11.752 | "Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
11.624 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |
11.417 | Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023? | Binary |
11.170 | Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022? | Binary |
11.054 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |
10.996 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D)) | Binary |
10.833 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf) | Binary |
10.366 | Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List? | Binary |
10.206 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes) | Binary |
10.110 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros) | Binary |
10.108 | Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon? | Binary |
9.504 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
9.479 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
9.284 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Binary |
9.278 | Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023? | Binary |
9.092 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP)) | Binary |
8.959 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2) | Binary |
8.811 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
8.551 | Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards? | Binary |
8.530 | Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023? | Binary |
8.338 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
8.233 | Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election? | Binary |
7.929 | Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season? | Binary |
7.674 | Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024? | Binary |
7.351 | Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th? | Binary |
7.313 | Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024? | Binary |
7.207 | Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote? | Binary |
7.205 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu) | Binary |
6.859 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R)) | Binary |
6.706 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | Binary |
6.420 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Binary |
5.934 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight? | Binary |
5.922 | Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023? | Binary |
5.618 | Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024? | Binary |
5.087 | Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case? | Binary |
5.035 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | Binary |
4.891 | Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election? | Binary |
4.634 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023? | Binary |
4.532 | Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
4.411 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
4.096 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.999 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE) | Binary |
3.803 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins) | Binary |
3.586 | Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years)) | Binary |
3.526 | Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
3.377 | Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time? | Binary |
3.170 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | Binary |
3.104 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves) | Binary |
3.015 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers) | Binary |
3.014 | 2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion? | Binary |
3.012 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D)) | Binary |
3.008 | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | Binary |
2.908 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D)) | Binary |
2.398 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles) | Binary |
2.390 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D)) | Binary |
2.305 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2) | Binary |
2.115 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
2.109 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D)) | Binary |
2.022 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
1.993 | Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety? | Binary |
1.894 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.846 | Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012? | Binary |
1.806 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
1.591 | Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.513 | Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023? | Binary |
1.341 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
1.303 | Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023? | Binary |
0.936 | Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023? | Binary |
0.731 | Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023? | Binary |
0.384 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D)) | Binary |
0.359 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Binary |
0.348 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D)) | Binary |
0.327 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D)) | Binary |
0.293 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D)) | Binary |
0.272 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D)) | Binary |
0.252 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)) | Binary |
0.235 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D)) | Binary |
0.233 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D)) | Binary |
0.216 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D)) | Binary |
0.213 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D)) | Binary |
0.163 | [Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023? | Binary |
- | Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days? | Binary |
-0.081 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.291 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D)) | Binary |
-0.802 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
-1.842 | Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023? | Binary |
-1.876 | Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023? | Binary |
-2.128 | Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks? | Binary |
-2.211 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
-3.391 | Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024? | Binary |
-3.550 | Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023? | Binary |
-4.439 | Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%? | Binary |
-4.719 | Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.889 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R)) | Binary |
-6.153 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
-6.250 | Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional? | Binary |
-6.583 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-7.278 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023) | Binary |
-7.647 | Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff? | Binary |
-7.661 | Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024? | Binary |
-7.981 | Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship? | Binary |
-8.681 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
-9.176 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-11.471 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3) | Binary |
-12.665 | Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024? | Binary |
-13.107 | Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023? | Binary |
-13.126 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
-14.773 | Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist? | Binary |
-15.280 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
-16.062 | Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow? | Binary |
-16.202 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
-16.243 | Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election? | Binary |
-18.980 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-20.529 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers) | Binary |
-24.722 | Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years)) | Binary |
-26.079 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-37.014 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV) | Binary |
-42.208 | Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023? | Binary |
-46.674 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
-57.804 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González) | Binary |
-59.461 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left) | Binary |
-66.380 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
-85.768 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín) | Binary |
-91.270 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights) | Binary |
-117.370 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU) | Binary |
-162.833 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain) | Binary |