Jgalt

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.4	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
77.463	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
58.896	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
56.624	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
56.551	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
55.034	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
54.873	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
53.184	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
51.654	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
50.712	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
47.757	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
47.031	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
45.970	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
44.519	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
42.975	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
42.560	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
40.617	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
40.486	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
40.128	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
37.883	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
37.000	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
35.996	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
35.825	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
34.630	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
34.354	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
34.158	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
33.370	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
32.737	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
32.442	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
30.775	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
30.627	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
30.504	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
30.208	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.706	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
29.674	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
28.961	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.445	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
26.344	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
25.718	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
25.181	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
24.340	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
23.964	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
23.702	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
23.489	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
23.056	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
21.237	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
20.862	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
20.180	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
20.093	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
19.724	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
19.059	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.877	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
17.877	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
17.139	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
17.107	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.046	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.806	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
15.529	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
15.512	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
14.761	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
14.489	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
13.864	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
13.858	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
13.655	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
13.504	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
12.855	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
12.769	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.751	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
12.620	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.428	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
12.373	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
12.088	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
11.583	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
11.582	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
11.416	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.365	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
10.919	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
10.397	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
10.025	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
9.904	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
9.815	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.722	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.688	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
9.438	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.335	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
9.227	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
9.131	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
9.042	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
8.866	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
8.788	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
8.526	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
8.028	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
7.974	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
7.912	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
7.882	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
7.835	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
7.754	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
7.477	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
6.754	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
6.662	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
6.553	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
5.871	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
5.688	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.656	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
5.653	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
5.580	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
5.478	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.048	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
4.937	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.793	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
4.741	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
4.709	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
4.602	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
4.555	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.488	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
4.361	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022)	Continuous
4.225	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.171	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
4.034	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.955	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
3.838	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.815	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.800	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
3.747	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
3.531	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.279	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
3.072	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.866	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
2.670	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
2.586	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
2.564	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
2.348	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.101	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
1.907	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.744	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.712	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
1.404	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
1.402	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
1.200	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
1.149	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
0.862	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
0.794	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.782	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.593	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.590	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
0.517	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
0.480	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
0.345	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.189	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
0.160	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
0.029	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.024	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.022	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.018	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.013	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.004	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
-0.013	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
-0.022	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
-0.079	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
-0.188	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-0.286	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
-0.365	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
-0.479	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
-0.684	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
-0.795	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.810	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
-0.923	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-1.047	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
-1.104	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
-1.485	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
-2.025	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-2.963	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
-3.093	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-3.535	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
-4.354	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-5.290	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
-5.630	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-6.037	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-6.918	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
-8.923	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
-9.539	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-10.613	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
-10.746	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
-11.640	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-12.508	What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2023)	Continuous
-15.049	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
-15.218	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-15.773	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-17.654	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
-19.009	What will Meta’s yearly spending on Reality Labs be? (2023)	Continuous
-22.561	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-30.968	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-49.967	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-88.382	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-122.836	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary