PhilippSchoenegger

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.638	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
81.611	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
66.613	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
50.815	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
46.316	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q1)	Continuous
41.919	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
36.336	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
36.161	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
35.394	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
33.921	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
33.709	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
33.689	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
32.299	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
32.171	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
32.155	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
29.891	What will Meta’s yearly spending on Reality Labs be? (2023)	Continuous
29.248	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.742	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
28.618	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
28.189	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
27.896	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
27.510	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
27.254	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
27.217	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
26.460	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
25.997	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
25.425	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
24.675	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
24.359	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
24.205	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
24.187	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
23.766	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
22.772	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
22.692	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
22.589	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
21.960	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
21.674	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
21.360	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
21.010	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
20.715	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
20.614	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
20.331	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
19.683	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
19.590	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
18.987	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
18.929	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
18.917	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
18.774	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
18.456	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
17.972	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
17.919	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
17.692	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
17.302	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.872	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
16.818	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
15.948	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
15.448	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
15.436	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
14.933	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
14.920	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
14.912	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.657	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
14.490	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
14.151	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
14.104	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
13.944	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
13.645	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
13.556	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
13.268	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
12.955	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
12.808	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
12.448	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
12.388	Will Ukrainian military forces strike targets more than 10 kilometers inside Russian territory?	Continuous
12.384	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
12.332	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
12.259	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
12.162	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.112	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
11.991	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
11.885	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
11.727	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
11.700	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
11.640	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
11.458	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
11.364	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
10.967	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
10.942	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
10.871	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.778	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
10.542	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
10.462	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
10.200	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
9.953	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
9.852	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
9.598	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
9.551	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
9.471	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
9.456	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
9.441	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.435	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
9.407	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.381	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
9.315	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
9.301	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.076	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
8.966	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.622	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
8.404	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
8.385	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
8.304	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
7.968	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
7.918	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
7.797	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
7.555	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
7.437	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
7.299	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
7.207	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.923	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
6.816	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
6.810	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.679	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
6.640	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.618	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
6.546	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.356	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
6.286	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
6.280	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
6.277	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
6.084	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
6.046	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
5.990	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
5.913	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
5.791	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
5.630	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.502	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
5.326	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
5.035	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.920	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
4.859	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
4.820	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023)	Continuous
4.766	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.621	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
4.347	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.340	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.308	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
4.253	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
4.237	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
4.216	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
4.160	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
3.918	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.838	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
3.811	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.515	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
3.386	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
3.382	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
3.348	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.244	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
3.233	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
3.131	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
3.120	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.055	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.012	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
3.002	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.963	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
2.855	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
2.759	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
2.661	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
2.591	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
2.393	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
2.365	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
2.285	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
2.016	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
1.991	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
1.975	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
1.910	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
1.899	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
1.890	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
1.869	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
1.743	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
1.720	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
1.665	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
1.650	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
1.648	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
1.581	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023)	Continuous
1.520	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.502	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
1.465	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
1.460	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
1.378	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
1.375	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
1.228	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
1.174	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
1.145	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.140	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
1.109	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
1.088	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
1.074	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
1.072	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.970	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
0.938	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
0.786	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
0.782	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
0.765	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
0.715	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
0.692	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
0.681	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
0.679	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
0.677	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
0.660	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
0.627	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
0.624	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
0.602	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022)	Continuous
0.428	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
0.308	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
0.277	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.230	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.153	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.080	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.076	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
0.050	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
0.023	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.020	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
0.017	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.015	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.013	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-0.011	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
-0.041	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
-0.147	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
-0.171	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
-0.286	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
-0.437	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-0.450	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-0.561	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
-0.684	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
-0.864	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
-1.053	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.202	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
-1.956	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
-2.046	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-2.189	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
-2.598	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-2.683	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
-2.748	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-2.792	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
-4.498	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-5.129	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
-5.701	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-6.574	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-7.287	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
-7.904	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-8.651	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-8.747	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-8.784	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
-9.080	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-9.339	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
-9.448	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-10.797	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-10.866	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
-15.756	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-19.177	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
-73.257	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary