Jgalt

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7230	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
126.595	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
112.396	What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2023)	Continuous
98.737	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
98.346	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
98.125	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
96.872	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
96.704	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
95.563	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
95.049	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
95.015	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
91.327	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
91.100	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
90.717	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
90.241	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
89.742	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
89.682	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
88.010	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
87.645	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
87.042	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
86.472	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
86.293	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
86.178	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
85.424	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
85.146	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
84.810	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
84.757	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
84.631	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
83.688	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
83.073	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
83.010	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
81.579	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
81.117	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
80.828	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
80.431	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
79.863	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
79.233	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
78.608	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
77.994	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
76.450	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
76.073	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
75.263	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
74.744	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
74.062	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
72.927	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
72.783	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
72.379	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
72.246	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
71.768	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
71.733	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
70.966	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
69.801	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
69.111	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
68.817	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
65.614	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
64.451	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
63.034	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
62.414	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
62.212	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
62.000	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
61.997	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
61.618	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
61.252	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
61.170	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
61.069	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
59.992	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
59.940	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
59.702	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
59.133	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
59.081	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
57.916	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
57.138	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
57.105	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
56.437	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
56.312	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
55.992	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
55.721	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
54.619	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
53.072	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
52.084	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
51.141	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
50.338	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
50.155	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
49.866	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
49.278	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
48.998	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
48.995	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
48.766	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
48.336	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
48.124	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
47.640	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
47.151	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
46.142	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
44.105	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
41.800	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
41.582	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
40.364	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
40.042	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
39.151	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
38.437	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
37.725	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
37.613	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
37.395	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
35.578	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
34.805	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
34.561	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022)	Continuous
33.912	What will Meta’s yearly operating loss on Reality Labs be? (2023)	Continuous
33.728	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
32.643	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
32.524	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
32.082	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
32.069	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
31.986	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
31.863	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
31.238	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
30.793	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
30.640	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
30.452	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
29.311	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
28.387	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
28.091	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
27.750	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
26.843	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
26.769	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
26.148	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
26.008	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
25.997	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
24.357	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
24.268	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
21.944	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
21.896	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
21.766	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.273	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
20.638	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
20.235	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
20.161	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
18.799	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
18.509	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
15.707	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
15.552	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
10.024	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
9.689	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
9.165	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
9.151	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
8.877	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
8.164	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
7.864	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
7.462	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
7.256	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
5.676	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.322	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
5.258	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
5.152	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
5.019	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.773	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
4.120	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.034	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
4.027	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
3.988	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
2.838	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
2.538	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
2.417	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.414	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
2.389	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
1.197	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
0.989	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.837	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.837	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.837	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.792	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.762	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.175	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.426	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
-0.533	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-0.551	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
-2.091	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-4.306	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-11.274	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-12.270	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-12.741	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
-12.811	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-14.520	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-16.503	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-18.125	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-22.757	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-24.193	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-34.610	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-40.999	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-44.370	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-47.734	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-49.994	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-78.910	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-91.342	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-152.706	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-274.540	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary