| 205.594 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 197.306 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 150.958 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 150.244 | What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 149.662 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 148.548 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 141.339 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 137.236 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 136.811 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 127.072 | COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 125.110 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 124.211 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 123.991 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 122.794 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 122.279 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 120.403 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 118.903 | Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 117.957 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 116.251 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 116.062 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 114.626 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 112.561 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.346 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.289 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 111.288 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 108.523 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 106.063 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 103.654 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 103.523 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 101.020 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 97.510 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 97.236 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.798 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 96.615 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 96.538 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 96.344 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.436 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 95.373 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 95.355 | Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024) | Binary |
| 94.452 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.333 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 94.309 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.309 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.007 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.691 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 93.691 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 93.531 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 93.193 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.068 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 93.066 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 92.931 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 92.813 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 92.799 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 92.653 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 92.653 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 92.481 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.340 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 92.340 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 92.340 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 92.307 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 92.290 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 92.147 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.028 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 92.009 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.941 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 91.941 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.941 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.752 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.568 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 91.489 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 91.486 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 91.290 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 91.039 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 90.849 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 90.849 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 90.838 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 90.481 | By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025) | Binary |
| 90.338 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 90.300 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 89.974 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.905 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.772 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 89.670 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 89.498 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 89.381 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 89.265 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.246 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.200 | In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before) | Binary |
| 88.432 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 87.854 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 87.337 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.489 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 86.402 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.255 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.060 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.640 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.363 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 84.889 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.757 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.386 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.085 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.600 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 83.470 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.212 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 83.212 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 83.212 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 83.042 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 82.936 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 82.317 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 82.122 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 81.327 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 81.128 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 81.096 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 80.692 | What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024) | Continuous |
| 80.641 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 80.591 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 80.573 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.309 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 79.935 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 78.932 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 78.733 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.847 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 77.761 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 77.614 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 77.438 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 77.279 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 77.155 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 76.051 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.752 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 75.286 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 75.202 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 75.194 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 75.088 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 74.724 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 74.640 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 74.461 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 74.420 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 73.982 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 73.949 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 73.664 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 72.710 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.060 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 71.679 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 71.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 71.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 71.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.257 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 71.125 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 70.392 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 69.340 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 68.786 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 68.080 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 67.469 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 67.353 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 66.149 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 65.862 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 65.783 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 65.574 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.386 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 64.926 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 64.914 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 64.914 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 64.914 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 64.889 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 64.785 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 64.218 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 63.908 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 63.429 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 62.942 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 62.819 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 62.749 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 62.622 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 62.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 62.508 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 62.398 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 61.693 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 61.492 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 61.344 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 61.180 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 60.827 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 60.827 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 60.827 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 60.811 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 60.632 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 60.479 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 60.323 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 60.288 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context)) | Continuous |
| 60.080 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 59.841 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 59.282 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.199 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 58.987 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 58.973 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 58.403 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.257 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 56.996 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 56.986 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 56.840 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 56.523 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.258 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 56.175 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 56.060 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 56.060 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 55.926 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.819 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.519 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 54.363 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 53.820 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 53.760 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 53.721 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 53.014 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 52.441 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 52.325 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.275 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 49.820 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 49.780 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.445 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 48.990 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.122 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 48.120 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 47.911 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 46.401 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 46.385 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 46.159 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 45.958 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.562 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.463 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.203 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 44.605 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 44.478 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 43.917 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 43.598 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 43.024 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 42.634 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 40.340 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 39.781 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens) | Continuous |
| 39.674 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.577 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 38.880 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 37.225 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.983 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 36.772 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 35.798 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 35.605 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.503 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 34.229 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 33.879 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 33.512 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.370 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.057 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 32.823 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 32.378 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 31.863 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 30.482 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 29.787 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 28.759 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 28.514 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 27.776 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 27.443 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.762 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 26.343 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 24.955 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.859 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.606 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.606 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.093 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 20.982 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 19.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 19.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 19.038 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 17.719 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 17.719 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 17.523 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.270 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 17.256 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.247 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.000 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 16.649 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 14.939 | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| 14.658 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 14.198 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 14.173 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.768 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 12.960 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 11.458 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 11.295 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 11.295 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.207 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 11.206 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 10.833 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 10.832 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 10.832 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.780 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 10.391 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 10.147 | Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 9.315 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.273 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 8.862 | When will the first Activision/Blizzard/King game be added to Xbox Game Pass? | Continuous |
| 8.364 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 8.349 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 8.242 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 8.090 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 7.032 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.032 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.032 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 6.822 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.822 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 6.155 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.859 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context)) | Continuous |
| 5.676 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 5.549 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 5.406 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 5.115 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 5.094 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 5.093 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 2.435 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| 2.108 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 1.517 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.482 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.482 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.156 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 1.084 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.061 | When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods? | Continuous |
| 1.055 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 0.332 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| - | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -0.284 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| -2.130 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -5.086 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -5.428 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -7.892 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.060 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -10.369 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -10.862 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -12.309 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -20.109 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| -24.961 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -25.834 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| -26.858 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -29.402 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -31.178 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| -38.954 | Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -46.691 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -50.352 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -51.855 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -52.571 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -60.678 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -80.602 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -132.402 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -152.331 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -201.555 | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -235.476 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |