citizen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.35k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
123.652	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
101.175	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
99.094	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
99.083	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
98.790	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
98.568	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
98.519	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
98.294	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
96.194	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
95.378	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
94.983	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
94.538	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
94.463	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
94.451	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
94.258	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
92.943	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
92.265	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
92.023	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
91.829	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
91.661	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
91.490	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
91.277	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
91.094	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
90.590	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
90.262	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
89.752	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
89.659	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
89.124	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
88.580	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
87.914	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
87.505	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
86.682	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
86.544	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
86.524	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
85.827	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
85.485	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
85.470	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
84.620	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
83.930	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
83.821	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
83.817	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
83.325	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
82.990	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
82.052	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
80.887	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
79.132	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
79.038	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
78.873	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
78.394	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
78.229	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
78.014	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
77.687	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
77.333	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
77.084	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
76.791	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
76.361	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
76.247	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
75.847	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
75.685	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
75.045	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
74.513	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
74.308	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
73.729	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
73.381	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
73.078	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
72.895	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
72.714	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
71.783	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
71.596	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
71.591	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
71.191	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
71.002	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
71.002	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
70.968	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
70.160	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
69.876	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
69.752	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
68.082	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
67.602	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
67.180	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka)	Continuous
66.494	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
66.154	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
65.962	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
65.405	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
65.373	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
65.277	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
65.204	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
65.160	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
65.159	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
64.541	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia)	Continuous
63.769	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
63.390	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
63.097	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
63.085	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
62.951	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
62.746	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
62.706	How much total trade volume (in 2021 USD) will Israel and Turkey trade in 2022?	Continuous
62.458	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
62.431	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
62.399	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
62.305	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
62.018	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan)	Continuous
61.899	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
61.805	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
60.748	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
60.619	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
60.147	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
59.384	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
58.139	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
57.719	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
56.951	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023)	Continuous
56.810	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
56.809	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
56.700	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
56.500	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
55.273	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan)	Continuous
54.181	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
52.448	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
51.220	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
50.813	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
49.047	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
48.933	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
48.183	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
47.972	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
47.819	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
47.666	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023)	Continuous
47.523	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
46.845	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
46.484	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
46.231	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024?	Continuous
45.267	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
44.795	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
44.183	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
44.094	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
43.475	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon)	Continuous
42.922	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
42.367	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
41.762	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
39.316	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda)	Continuous
38.493	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti)	Continuous
38.182	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
37.762	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
37.536	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
37.532	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
37.387	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
37.356	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
36.676	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
36.663	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
35.563	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
35.509	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
35.160	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
34.357	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
34.170	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
34.146	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
34.026	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
33.282	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
33.171	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
32.540	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
32.275	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
32.209	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
31.802	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
31.766	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
31.714	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
31.439	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
31.425	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
30.841	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
30.786	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
30.619	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
30.371	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
30.116	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
30.042	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
29.523	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.231	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
29.228	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
29.113	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
28.622	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
28.138	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
27.888	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
27.784	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
27.740	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
27.318	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
26.626	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
26.601	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
26.184	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
26.184	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
26.184	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
26.184	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
26.184	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
26.160	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
26.152	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
26.134	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
26.088	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
25.986	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
25.977	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
25.967	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
25.951	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
25.939	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
25.369	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
25.125	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
24.843	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
23.906	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
23.496	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
23.480	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
23.174	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
23.133	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
22.874	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
22.593	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
22.518	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
22.180	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
22.167	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
21.792	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
21.491	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
21.287	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
20.899	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
20.664	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.597	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
20.352	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
19.855	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
19.628	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
19.245	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
18.856	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
18.622	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
18.342	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
17.544	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
16.537	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
16.506	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
14.710	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
14.205	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
13.852	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23)	Continuous
12.557	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
12.504	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
12.154	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
11.986	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
11.919	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
11.743	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants)	Binary
11.074	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
10.956	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
9.991	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
9.197	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
9.000	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
8.501	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
8.461	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
8.432	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
8.413	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
7.885	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
7.873	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
7.839	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
7.833	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
7.544	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
7.475	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
7.301	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
7.155	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
6.936	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
6.849	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
6.486	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
5.965	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2)	Continuous
5.878	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
5.311	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
5.043	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
4.749	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
4.679	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
4.641	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
4.614	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
4.597	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots)	Binary
4.596	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
4.428	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
4.389	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
4.292	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
4.226	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
4.210	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots)	Binary
4.201	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
4.061	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
3.998	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
3.829	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.797	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
3.700	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
3.659	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
3.441	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
3.339	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
2.994	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
2.951	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
2.686	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
2.668	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
2.307	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
2.006	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
1.381	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
1.096	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
0.971	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.886	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.824	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.696	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.689	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.665	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.612	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
0.515	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.379	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
0.333	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.102	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets)	Binary
0.082	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
0.079	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
0.078	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
0.069	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
0.067	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets)	Binary
0.067	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
0.066	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
0.053	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-0.060	What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?	Continuous
-0.167	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-0.866	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.528	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.059	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
-2.339	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-3.174	In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?	Continuous
-3.883	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
-4.169	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
-4.491	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
-5.594	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-5.739	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
-6.668	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-7.375	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-9.790	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
-10.973	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
-11.425	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
-12.198	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary
-13.863	In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?	Continuous
-14.006	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
-14.641	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
-15.444	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-17.481	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
-17.482	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-20.466	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-20.712	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
-22.498	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
-23.570	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
-26.067	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-28.933	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-29.675	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
-33.011	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-44.201	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-45.073	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
-47.077	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-49.452	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-51.666	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-55.321	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-58.955	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-70.112	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-22)	Continuous
-70.681	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
-73.703	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-89.515	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-107.368	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-116.687	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-197.393	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary