TheObsoleteMan

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.19k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.521	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
85.563	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
84.755	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.602	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.239	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
77.447	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
77.447	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
77.447	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
77.053	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
77.002	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
74.916	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
74.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
73.467	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
73.467	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
73.467	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
72.934	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
72.669	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
72.172	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
72.112	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
72.112	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
72.111	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
71.924	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
70.741	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
70.741	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
70.741	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
70.740	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
70.740	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
70.740	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
70.602	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
69.911	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
69.695	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
69.094	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
68.493	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
67.610	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
67.277	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
66.460	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
65.684	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
65.277	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
64.644	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
64.423	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
64.296	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
64.253	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
63.814	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
63.771	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
63.174	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
62.805	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
62.401	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
62.394	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
62.394	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
62.347	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
62.125	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
61.166	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
59.932	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
59.910	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
59.504	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
59.135	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
59.135	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
58.979	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
58.716	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
58.453	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
58.249	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
58.232	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
57.797	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
56.406	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
56.153	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
55.882	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
55.807	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
55.584	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
55.572	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
54.812	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
54.046	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
53.652	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
53.649	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
53.521	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
53.314	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
53.233	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
53.066	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
52.768	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
52.601	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
52.424	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
52.423	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
52.131	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
52.058	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
52.042	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
51.939	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
51.720	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
50.967	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
50.871	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
50.217	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
50.025	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
49.995	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
49.885	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
49.878	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
48.357	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
48.357	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
48.357	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
48.357	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
48.357	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
48.357	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
48.308	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
47.850	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
47.721	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
46.104	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
45.705	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
45.368	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
44.674	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
44.081	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
44.066	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
43.627	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
43.179	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
42.882	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
42.568	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
42.299	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
42.073	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
42.072	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
42.031	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
41.617	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
41.345	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
41.275	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
41.271	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
41.126	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
40.859	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
40.608	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
40.573	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
40.512	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
40.158	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
40.097	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
39.956	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
39.785	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
39.695	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
39.606	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
39.396	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
39.237	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
39.132	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
38.772	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
38.731	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
38.370	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
38.308	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
38.271	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
37.561	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
37.184	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
36.766	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
36.740	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
36.674	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
36.499	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
35.335	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
35.180	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
35.006	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
34.365	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
33.829	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
33.702	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
33.694	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
33.562	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
33.360	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
33.260	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
33.179	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
33.126	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
33.080	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
32.826	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
32.562	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
32.244	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
31.978	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
31.931	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
31.874	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
31.807	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
31.709	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
31.634	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
31.630	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
31.629	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
31.424	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
31.406	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
31.332	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
30.896	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
30.789	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
30.751	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
30.725	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
30.469	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
30.266	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
30.051	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
29.504	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
29.473	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
29.329	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
29.322	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
29.179	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
29.166	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
29.115	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
29.030	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
28.656	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
28.501	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
28.406	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
28.276	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
28.015	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
27.953	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
27.952	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
27.915	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
27.890	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
27.730	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
27.609	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
27.548	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
27.539	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
27.436	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
27.318	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
27.277	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
27.216	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
26.989	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
26.918	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
26.804	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
26.802	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
26.598	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
26.386	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
26.356	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
26.356	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
26.263	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
26.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
26.075	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
25.983	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
25.944	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
25.920	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
25.423	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
25.240	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
24.939	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
24.719	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.631	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
24.566	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
24.553	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
24.507	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
24.087	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
23.553	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
23.519	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
23.426	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
23.147	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
22.949	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
22.948	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
22.672	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
22.661	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
22.624	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
22.178	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
21.934	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
21.844	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
21.532	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
21.469	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
21.458	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
21.285	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
21.283	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
21.278	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
21.224	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
20.683	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
20.548	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
20.510	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
20.497	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
20.465	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
20.315	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
20.307	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
20.274	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
20.180	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
19.861	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
19.749	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
19.476	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
19.429	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
19.408	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
19.376	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
19.357	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
19.114	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
18.861	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
18.725	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
18.511	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
18.494	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
17.991	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
17.964	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
17.877	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
17.799	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
17.599	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
17.377	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
16.856	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
16.837	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
16.819	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
16.744	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
16.633	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
16.633	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
16.578	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
16.396	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
15.673	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
15.537	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.413	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
15.397	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
15.253	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
15.025	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
14.542	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
14.517	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
14.421	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
14.270	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
13.848	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.699	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
13.631	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
13.558	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
13.515	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
13.151	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
12.954	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
12.829	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
12.236	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
11.991	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
11.920	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
11.752	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.624	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
11.417	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
11.170	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
11.054	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
10.996	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
10.833	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
10.366	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
10.206	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
10.110	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
10.108	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
9.504	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
9.479	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
9.284	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
9.278	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
9.092	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
8.959	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
8.811	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
8.551	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
8.530	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
8.338	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
8.233	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
7.929	Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?	Binary
7.674	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
7.351	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
7.313	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
7.207	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
7.205	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
6.859	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
6.706	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
6.420	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
5.934	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
5.922	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
5.618	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
5.087	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
5.035	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
4.891	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
4.634	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
4.532	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
4.411	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.096	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.999	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
3.803	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
3.586	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years))	Binary
3.526	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
3.377	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
3.170	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
3.104	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
3.015	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
3.014	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
3.012	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
3.008	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
2.908	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
2.398	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
2.390	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
2.305	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
2.115	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.109	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
2.022	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.993	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
1.894	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.846	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
1.806	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
1.591	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
1.513	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
1.341	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
1.303	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
0.936	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
0.731	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
0.384	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
0.359	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
0.348	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
0.327	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
0.293	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
0.272	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
0.252	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
0.235	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
0.233	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
0.216	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
0.213	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
0.163	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
-	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
-0.081	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.291	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-0.802	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-1.842	Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023?	Binary
-1.876	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-2.128	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
-2.211	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-3.391	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
-3.550	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-4.439	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-4.719	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.889	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-6.153	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-6.250	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-6.583	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.278	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
-7.647	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-7.661	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-7.981	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-8.681	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-9.176	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.471	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-12.665	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-13.107	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-13.126	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-14.773	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-15.280	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-16.062	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-16.202	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.243	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-18.980	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-20.529	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-24.722	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years))	Binary
-26.079	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-37.014	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
-42.208	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-46.674	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-57.804	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-59.461	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-66.380	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-85.768	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-91.270	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-117.370	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
-162.833	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary