| 114.897 | What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024? | Continuous |
| 100.427 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 99.850 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 99.706 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 99.650 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 99.477 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 99.167 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 99.137 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 99.118 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.958 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.881 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 98.740 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 98.060 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 97.817 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 97.517 | By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025) | Binary |
| 97.457 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.157 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.397 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.087 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 96.082 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 96.013 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 95.576 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.438 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.686 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.510 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.492 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 94.234 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 94.209 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.029 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 93.310 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 93.244 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 93.244 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 93.214 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 92.610 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 92.463 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.436 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.119 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.562 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Burnley) | Continuous |
| 91.395 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 91.304 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 91.223 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 90.216 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 89.906 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Luton Town) | Continuous |
| 89.705 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 89.298 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Sheffield United) | Continuous |
| 88.686 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 88.488 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.420 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 88.414 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.608 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 87.556 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 86.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 86.801 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 86.785 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 85.908 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 85.306 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 85.108 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 85.017 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 83.981 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 83.981 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 83.354 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 83.241 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 83.241 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 82.770 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 82.416 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 82.085 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 81.788 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 81.615 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.372 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 81.147 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 80.437 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 80.250 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 80.002 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 79.954 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 79.456 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 78.886 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 77.815 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 77.815 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 77.739 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 77.322 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 77.268 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 77.073 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 76.517 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 76.493 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 76.366 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 76.198 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 76.165 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.049 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 75.935 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 74.669 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 74.649 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 74.312 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 74.225 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 74.159 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 73.613 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 73.495 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 73.370 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 73.096 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 73.033 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 72.841 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 72.161 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 72.123 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.123 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.123 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.671 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 71.537 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 71.528 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 70.888 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 70.682 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 70.597 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 69.927 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 68.945 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 68.568 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 67.766 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 67.417 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.297 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 66.815 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 66.056 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 65.742 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 64.586 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 64.581 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 64.146 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| 64.098 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 64.082 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 63.400 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 63.064 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 62.969 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 62.669 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 62.399 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.498 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 61.185 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 60.780 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 60.245 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.213 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.894 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 59.119 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 58.417 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.305 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 57.924 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 57.907 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 57.887 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 57.545 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.541 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 57.393 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 57.199 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.949 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 56.948 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 56.930 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 56.877 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 56.619 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 56.492 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 56.071 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 55.465 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 55.439 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 55.325 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.701 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 54.501 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 54.201 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 53.716 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 53.259 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 52.922 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.611 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 52.611 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 52.245 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks) | Binary |
| 51.926 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics) | Binary |
| 51.926 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky) | Binary |
| 51.913 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream) | Binary |
| 51.913 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 50.872 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 50.872 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 50.872 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 50.827 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 50.648 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 50.496 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 50.155 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 49.593 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 49.593 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 49.417 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 49.297 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 49.107 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 48.836 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| 46.576 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 46.356 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.281 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 44.281 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 43.816 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 43.702 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 43.659 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 43.278 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 43.268 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 43.268 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 43.263 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 43.052 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 43.049 | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 43.008 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| 42.774 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 42.719 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 42.436 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 42.423 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 41.849 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 41.649 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 41.313 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.291 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 41.012 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.748 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.093 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023) | Continuous |
| 39.632 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 39.575 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 39.247 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 39.183 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 38.881 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 38.880 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 38.806 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 38.417 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 37.851 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 37.797 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 37.397 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 37.389 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 36.839 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 36.639 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 36.228 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 36.013 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 35.144 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.143 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.909 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 33.882 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 33.760 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 33.041 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 32.783 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 32.103 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.213 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 30.758 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.680 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 30.499 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 28.513 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 28.362 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 27.369 | What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 26.906 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.355 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024)) | Continuous |
| 26.305 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 25.602 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 25.602 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 25.602 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 25.595 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 25.339 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 24.675 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 24.675 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 24.295 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 24.000 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 23.995 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 23.077 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 22.997 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024)) | Continuous |
| 22.596 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 22.365 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 21.952 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 21.939 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.886 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 21.784 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 20.948 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 19.313 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| 18.896 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 18.841 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.608 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.323 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 18.100 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 18.099 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 17.631 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.621 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.328 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 17.172 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 17.167 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 16.864 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 16.202 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 16.145 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 16.089 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 15.472 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 15.364 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 13.729 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 13.468 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 12.214 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| 11.591 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.534 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 11.439 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 11.122 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 11.122 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 11.122 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 9.585 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 9.238 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.058 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 8.547 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.463 | What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024) | Continuous |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.684 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 4.515 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.031 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 3.402 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 2.699 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 2.180 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 2.106 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 1.680 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.647 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.647 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.530 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 1.244 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.233 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 1.215 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| -3.387 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -5.407 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -9.759 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -11.602 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -11.750 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -11.857 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -12.990 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -15.872 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -28.974 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -39.804 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -57.981 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| -75.835 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -91.657 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -101.209 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -169.291 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -177.777 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -186.307 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -242.585 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -319.061 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |