PhilippSchoenegger

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9763	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
128.046	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
109.836	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
99.012	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
98.595	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
98.378	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
97.612	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
97.598	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
97.432	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
97.369	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
96.820	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
96.527	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
96.032	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
95.910	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
95.443	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
95.252	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
94.808	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
94.789	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
94.114	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
94.008	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
93.842	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
93.831	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
93.656	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
92.987	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
92.511	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
92.221	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
92.098	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
91.856	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
90.942	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
90.817	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
89.907	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
89.904	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
89.604	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
88.882	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
88.841	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
88.773	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
88.652	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
87.813	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
87.391	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
87.100	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
86.546	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
86.491	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
85.394	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
84.364	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
84.336	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
84.128	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
83.624	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
83.427	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
82.814	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
82.596	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
82.308	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
82.101	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
80.984	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
80.216	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
79.752	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
79.459	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
79.121	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
78.921	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
78.705	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
78.138	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023)	Continuous
78.090	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
78.027	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
76.959	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
76.329	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
75.701	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023)	Continuous
75.698	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
75.402	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
75.319	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
74.032	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
73.512	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
73.498	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
73.224	What will Meta’s yearly operating loss on Reality Labs be? (2023)	Continuous
71.964	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
71.834	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
71.618	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
71.524	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
71.515	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
70.678	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
70.618	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
69.986	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
69.300	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
69.139	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
68.942	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
68.758	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
68.582	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
68.162	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
68.049	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
67.884	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
67.577	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
67.043	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
64.959	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
64.678	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
64.382	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
63.897	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
63.590	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
62.909	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
62.861	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
61.669	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
60.803	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
59.063	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
58.283	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
57.380	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
57.336	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
56.949	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
55.932	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
55.884	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
55.275	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
55.118	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
53.486	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
53.401	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
53.098	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
52.204	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
51.290	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
50.593	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
50.266	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
50.218	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
49.495	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
48.709	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
47.398	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
47.247	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
47.245	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
46.411	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
46.324	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
46.317	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
45.750	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
43.724	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
43.627	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
43.346	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
41.225	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
39.786	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
37.507	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
37.256	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
37.231	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
36.117	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
35.321	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
35.061	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
34.484	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
34.435	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
34.239	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
32.397	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
32.381	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
31.404	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
30.885	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
30.707	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
29.333	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
29.202	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
29.196	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
28.491	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
28.462	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
28.402	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
26.786	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
26.683	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
26.673	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
26.545	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
26.384	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
26.384	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
26.384	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
26.384	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
26.384	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
26.384	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
26.384	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
26.201	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
25.606	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
25.520	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
25.445	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
25.081	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
24.408	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
24.367	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
23.835	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
23.276	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
22.689	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q1)	Continuous
22.610	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
21.554	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
21.354	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022)	Continuous
20.521	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
19.833	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
19.506	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
18.985	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
18.481	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
18.400	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
17.061	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
16.993	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
16.863	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.472	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
16.405	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
16.077	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
14.958	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.148	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
13.780	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
11.949	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
11.261	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
10.493	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
10.067	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.491	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
8.269	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
8.177	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
7.040	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
6.682	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
6.361	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
6.246	Will Ukrainian military forces strike targets more than 10 kilometers inside Russian territory?	Continuous
5.950	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
5.925	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
5.803	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
5.427	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
5.267	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
4.706	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
4.214	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
4.123	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
3.061	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
3.029	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
1.750	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
1.588	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
1.316	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
1.286	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
0.920	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.852	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.840	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.726	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.726	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.726	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.723	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
0.392	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.324	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.105	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-0.131	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-0.237	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
-0.411	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
-0.792	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-1.637	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-1.751	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
-1.948	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
-2.696	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-3.597	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-4.162	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
-4.554	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.732	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-4.845	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
-5.199	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-5.727	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-7.826	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-12.793	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
-17.137	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-19.850	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-28.146	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-30.714	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
-38.983	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-39.471	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-43.924	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-46.906	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
-51.130	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-51.412	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-55.200	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-68.650	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-72.800	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-88.975	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-91.141	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-97.474	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-100.154	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-106.181	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
-110.041	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-308.051	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary