DaAdCh

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7874	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.792	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
97.232	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
97.059	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
96.791	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
95.956	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
95.511	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
94.650	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
93.647	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
92.925	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
92.673	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
92.469	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
92.321	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
89.211	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
88.087	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
87.587	Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?	Binary
87.255	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
86.422	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.355	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
84.867	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
84.777	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director)	Binary
84.677	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
84.669	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
84.497	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
83.698	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
83.550	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
83.200	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
83.088	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Binary
82.944	Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?	Binary
81.782	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.388	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
77.463	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
76.394	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
76.245	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
75.670	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
74.977	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
74.876	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
73.616	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
72.298	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
71.117	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
71.115	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
70.443	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
69.424	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
69.210	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
69.149	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
68.961	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.789	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture)	Binary
67.617	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
67.053	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
67.021	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
66.211	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
65.808	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
65.723	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
65.011	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.984	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
63.472	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
63.291	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
63.142	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
62.948	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
62.368	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.367	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
59.825	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
59.781	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
58.481	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay)	Binary
57.935	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
57.828	Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?	Binary
57.232	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?	Binary
57.151	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
56.964	Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?	Binary
55.926	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
55.532	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
55.179	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
53.857	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
53.545	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
53.346	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (May 2024)	Continuous
53.141	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
53.013	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
52.909	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
52.505	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
52.356	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
51.431	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
50.637	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
50.547	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
50.058	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
49.707	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
49.661	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
49.576	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
49.558	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
49.396	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
48.194	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
47.861	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
47.256	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
46.668	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
46.605	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia)	Binary
45.503	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
45.310	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
45.078	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.613	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.567	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
42.686	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
41.856	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
41.719	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.542	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
41.304	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
41.234	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.531	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
38.964	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
38.480	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
37.999	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
37.960	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.735	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
35.668	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China)	Binary
35.668	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan)	Binary
35.187	Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup?	Multiple Choice
35.143	What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament?	Multiple Choice
33.669	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
33.126	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
32.897	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
31.696	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
30.908	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
29.260	Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?	Binary
29.005	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
28.061	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
28.033	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
27.672	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
27.532	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
27.492	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
27.492	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
27.331	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.208	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
27.162	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
26.844	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
26.771	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
26.644	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
26.607	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
26.483	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
26.283	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
26.099	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
23.759	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
23.455	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
23.327	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
22.900	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
22.770	What will be the price of Palladium futures (in $USD) at the end of 2024?	Continuous
22.189	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
22.126	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
21.808	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
21.523	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
20.235	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
20.233	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
19.903	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
18.486	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PAN (Pessoas-Animais-Natureza))	Continuous
18.475	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (VP (Volt Portugal))	Continuous
18.474	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (RIR (Reagir, Incluir, Reciclar))	Continuous
18.470	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (JPP (Juntos pelo Povo))	Continuous
18.390	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (ADN (Alternativa Democrática Nacional))	Continuous
17.998	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
16.583	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
15.798	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
15.288	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.479	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (BE (Bloco de Esquerda))	Continuous
12.939	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (IL (Iniciativa Liberal))	Continuous
12.938	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CDU (Coligação Democrática Unitária))	Continuous
12.673	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
12.371	Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season?	Multiple Choice
11.331	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
10.740	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
10.556	Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?	Binary
10.414	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
9.468	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
9.190	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (L (LIVRE))	Continuous
8.696	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
8.465	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.012	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
7.354	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
7.299	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
5.530	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico)	Binary
5.530	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh)	Binary
5.350	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
5.258	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (AD (Aliança Democrática))	Continuous
5.185	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
4.652	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
4.598	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil)	Binary
3.966	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France)	Binary
3.803	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
3.638	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey)	Binary
3.499	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
3.429	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
3.370	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.346	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
3.225	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
3.219	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
3.199	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
3.194	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri)	Binary
3.114	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
3.106	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CH (Chega!))	Continuous
2.999	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida)	Binary
2.982	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States)	Binary
2.918	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
2.916	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
2.683	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia)	Binary
2.578	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.496	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PS (Partido Socialista))	Continuous
2.462	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
1.912	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
1.850	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?	Multiple Choice
1.739	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
1.739	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
1.729	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
1.729	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
1.685	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
1.601	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
1.477	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
1.256	Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?	Binary
1.159	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
1.143	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom)	Binary
1.010	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
0.969	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany)	Binary
0.869	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
0.843	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.788	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
0.768	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
0.660	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.656	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
0.454	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.167	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
0.133	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.107	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.074	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.029	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
-	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-	Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?	Binary
-	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-	[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Binary
-	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-0.231	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-0.677	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-1.614	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
-1.668	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-1.712	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-2.947	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.981	What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-5.197	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-5.265	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-8.127	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
-8.866	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
-10.594	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-11.983	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-15.153	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-22.169	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-26.807	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
-29.508	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-35.854	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-51.444	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress)	Binary
-51.595	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
-63.244	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-65.469	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-78.209	Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award?	Multiple Choice
-78.415	Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?	Binary
-112.941	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-115.400	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-209.591	Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?	Binary
-209.863	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary