| 144.871 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 124.065 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 124.064 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 118.472 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 116.048 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 115.416 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 114.244 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 105.968 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 99.335 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 97.677 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 97.637 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.637 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 97.637 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.563 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.393 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.070 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.467 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 96.387 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.384 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 96.205 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.008 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.603 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 95.467 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 95.305 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.948 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.458 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.829 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.821 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 92.534 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 92.296 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.815 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 91.793 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 91.444 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 90.627 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 90.579 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 89.758 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 88.924 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 88.279 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 86.861 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 86.313 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 86.313 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.394 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 82.422 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.020 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 81.705 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 81.630 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 80.486 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 80.434 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 80.147 | By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025) | Binary |
| 80.023 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 79.524 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 79.498 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 79.395 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 79.208 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 79.135 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 79.017 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 79.017 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 78.808 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 78.562 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 77.215 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 76.376 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 75.509 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 75.449 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 74.392 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 74.095 | How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024? | Continuous |
| 73.362 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.730 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 71.950 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 71.326 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 68.573 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 68.573 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 68.573 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 68.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 68.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 68.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 67.930 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 67.930 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 67.864 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 67.864 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 67.861 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 67.777 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 67.758 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 67.685 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 67.015 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 66.761 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 65.325 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 62.531 | Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024) | Binary |
| 61.927 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 61.152 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.082 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.850 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 60.848 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 60.782 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.992 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 59.984 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.798 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 58.156 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.142 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.141 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 57.896 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 57.294 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 57.294 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 57.294 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 56.582 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 56.072 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 55.905 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 54.639 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| 52.235 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.212 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 51.011 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 50.739 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.956 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 49.141 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 48.273 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 48.082 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 47.756 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 46.449 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 45.159 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 44.607 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 43.805 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 43.531 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 40.504 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.233 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 40.233 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 40.069 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.867 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 38.454 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.255 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 35.237 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 35.184 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.162 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.578 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 34.320 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 34.194 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 34.170 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| 33.075 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.059 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.201 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 32.170 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 31.631 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 31.429 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 31.380 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 30.529 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 30.460 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 30.429 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 30.400 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 30.386 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 30.368 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 29.874 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 28.827 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 28.827 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 28.762 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 27.951 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 27.461 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 27.401 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 27.324 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.310 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 26.958 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 26.884 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 25.785 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.784 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.605 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.572 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 25.254 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 24.960 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.739 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 24.363 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.071 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.026 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 24.026 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 23.780 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.780 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.780 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.386 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 23.240 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 23.211 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.158 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 22.585 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.465 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.368 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.277 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 22.255 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 21.299 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 20.787 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.495 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 20.222 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 19.887 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.585 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 19.384 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 19.359 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.956 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 18.689 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 18.599 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 18.347 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 18.146 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 17.156 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 17.056 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 16.290 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 16.074 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 15.605 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens) | Continuous |
| 14.780 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 14.745 | What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024? | Continuous |
| 14.644 | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 14.435 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 14.330 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 13.561 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 13.505 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 13.504 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 13.500 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 13.032 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 13.032 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 12.488 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.167 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 12.099 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 11.911 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 11.702 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| 11.684 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 11.670 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.620 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 11.332 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 11.165 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 11.157 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 10.917 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 10.119 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 10.066 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 9.795 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.782 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 9.497 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 9.385 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-24) | Continuous |
| 9.335 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 9.335 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 8.900 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 8.501 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 8.180 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson) | Continuous |
| 8.038 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| 8.020 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis) | Continuous |
| 8.000 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 7.700 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24) | Continuous |
| 7.612 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.612 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.537 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 7.495 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 7.495 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 7.477 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.477 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.305 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 7.305 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 7.305 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 7.222 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.838 | What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024) | Continuous |
| 6.710 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 6.670 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 6.618 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.529 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 6.425 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 6.422 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.388 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.218 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Continuous |
| 6.133 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.661 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 5.649 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 5.643 | What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025? | Continuous |
| 5.638 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 5.277 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 5.203 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 4.774 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 4.057 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 3.882 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 3.737 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (July 2024) | Continuous |
| 3.685 | Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 3.499 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 3.482 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 2.974 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Chris Christie) | Continuous |
| 2.459 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 2.106 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| 1.808 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 1.733 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 1.588 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 1.517 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.478 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 1.420 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 1.420 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 1.193 | When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields? | Continuous |
| 1.107 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.028 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 1.017 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 0.771 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| 0.636 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.569 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| 0.566 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces) | Binary |
| 0.461 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.454 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.221 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.207 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.151 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.103 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.088 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| - | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| - | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty) | Binary |
| -0.125 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.242 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.363 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.652 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| -1.669 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -2.654 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| -6.353 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -9.651 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| -10.448 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -11.505 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -12.487 | Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -17.314 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -24.786 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -24.948 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -26.977 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -30.333 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -31.713 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -32.909 | How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -35.416 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -50.798 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -55.143 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -55.451 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -56.813 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context)) | Continuous |
| -57.041 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context)) | Continuous |
| -59.659 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -60.341 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -79.235 | When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods? | Continuous |
| -84.777 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -85.596 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -110.995 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -114.729 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -165.616 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -266.000 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |