evergreenemily

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4548	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.123	Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?	Binary
97.525	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
97.447	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
95.039	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
93.993	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
92.619	What percent of Americans will hold a favorable view of China per the Pew Research Center's 2025 annual poll?	Continuous
91.495	Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?	Binary
91.351	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-25)	Continuous
90.541	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
90.135	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
86.973	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
86.491	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
85.461	Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?	Binary
83.810	Will the U.S. tax code still allow carried interest to be taxed as a long-term capital gain on January 1, 2026?	Binary
83.747	Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?	Binary
82.810	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
82.047	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
80.968	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Ukraine)	Binary
80.137	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
79.675	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
78.238	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
76.740	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
76.624	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
76.387	Will the FTC's proposed ban on non-compete agreements for most workers be enacted in more or less its current form before 2026?	Binary
75.406	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
75.283	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
73.877	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
73.758	Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?	Binary
73.688	Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?	Binary
72.419	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
72.062	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Israel)	Binary
72.031	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
71.913	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
71.741	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
71.222	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
71.198	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
70.621	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
70.494	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)	Binary
69.849	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Peru)	Binary
69.168	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
68.367	How many days will Donald Trump spend golfing in November 2025?	Continuous
68.242	Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?	Multiple Choice
66.936	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
66.010	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
64.322	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
62.982	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
61.818	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
61.548	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
60.644	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
60.458	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
59.917	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
59.755	When will Donald Trump sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill averting or ending a government shutdown?	Continuous
59.630	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?	Binary
58.113	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
57.883	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
56.032	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
55.929	Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?	Binary
54.686	Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?	Binary
53.999	How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?	Multiple Choice
53.865	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
53.840	Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?	Binary
53.721	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
53.695	Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?	Binary
52.947	How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (People's)	Continuous
52.829	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
52.562	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
51.283	Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?	Binary
50.444	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
49.851	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
48.450	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
47.614	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
47.426	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
47.399	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
47.069	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
45.973	How many days will Donald Trump spend golfing in September 2025?	Continuous
45.224	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
44.052	Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?	Binary
43.672	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
42.760	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
42.736	Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?	Binary
42.643	Who will win the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Multiple Choice
41.863	Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?	Binary
41.414	How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (Green)	Continuous
39.529	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
38.921	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Turkiye)	Binary
38.125	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
37.904	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
37.806	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
37.777	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
36.872	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Eduardo Artés)	Binary
36.872	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Marco Enríquez-Ominami)	Binary
36.872	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Harold Mayne-Nicholls)	Binary
36.872	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Franco Parisi)	Binary
36.722	Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?	Binary
36.621	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
36.105	What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the top marginal tax rate for ordinary income in tax year 2026?	Continuous
35.241	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Evelyn Matthei)	Binary
35.241	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Johannes Kaiser)	Binary
35.089	What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the standard deduction for married couples filing jointly in tax year 2026?	Continuous
34.973	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
34.469	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
34.276	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
34.104	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
34.025	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
33.924	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
33.142	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
32.295	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
30.099	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
29.438	Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?	Binary
29.341	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
28.325	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
28.260	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
27.785	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
27.189	What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the cap for the state and local tax deduction (SALT) for married couples filing jointly in tax year 2026?	Continuous
27.178	Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?	Binary
26.960	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
26.677	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
26.675	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce spending on education programs?	Continuous
26.437	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
25.121	Will Ghana sign into law "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values" bill before 2026?	Binary
24.690	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
24.590	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill impose new work requirements on Medicaid recipients?	Binary
24.372	Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?	Multiple Choice
24.356	Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?	Binary
24.024	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
23.856	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
23.236	How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?	Multiple Choice
23.158	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
23.091	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
22.906	Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?	Binary
22.826	Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?	Binary
22.641	Will the EU suspend visa liberalisation for Georgia before March 2026?	Binary
22.258	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
21.347	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
21.015	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
20.842	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
20.779	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
20.772	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025?	Multiple Choice
20.650	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
20.233	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (José Antonio Kast)	Binary
20.077	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating be on November 25, 2025?	Continuous
19.830	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
19.482	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.375	Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?	Binary
19.079	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
18.532	Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?	Binary
18.461	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
18.165	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
17.891	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
17.310	How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (New Democratic)	Continuous
17.259	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
17.065	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
17.042	What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the percent deduction allowed for qualified business income (QBI) in tax year 2026?	Continuous
16.438	How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
15.986	How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (Liberal)	Continuous
15.675	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
15.659	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
15.341	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
15.271	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
15.241	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce the taxation of Social Security income in tax year 2026?	Binary
14.541	How much funding for a border wall will the 2025 reconciliation bill provide?	Continuous
14.054	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?	Binary
13.820	Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?	Binary
13.664	When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?	Continuous
13.458	How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (Conservative)	Continuous
13.180	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
12.578	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
12.489	How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Continuous
12.312	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
12.175	Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?	Binary
11.990	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
11.948	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on December 14, 2025?	Continuous
11.359	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Jeannette Jara)	Binary
11.214	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
11.073	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
10.906	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
10.744	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
9.853	Will Boeing's total revenue for 2025 be equal to or higher than $85 billion?	Binary
9.069	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
8.649	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2025)	Continuous
8.531	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
8.177	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
7.250	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
7.139	Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?	Binary
6.878	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce spending on energy and environmental tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act?	Continuous
6.799	Will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom win 33 or more seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives in the 2025 election?	Binary
6.653	Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?	Binary
6.557	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
6.261	Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?	Binary
5.993	Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?	Binary
5.913	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
5.787	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
5.700	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
5.621	Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?	Binary
5.565	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce health insurance coverage?	Continuous
5.419	What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Continuous
5.325	Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?	Binary
4.697	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
4.636	Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?	Binary
4.409	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
4.377	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
4.249	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill make any car loan interest deductable in tax year 2026?	Binary
4.177	Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
3.935	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2025 North Rhine-Westphalia local elections?	Continuous
3.830	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
3.333	Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?	Binary
3.158	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
2.933	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
2.855	What percentage of the Project 2025 Tracker will be complete on October 1, 2025?	Continuous
2.577	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for overtime income in tax year 2026?	Binary
2.453	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
2.453	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
2.383	Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?	Binary
2.110	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
2.077	Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
2.064	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
1.868	Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?	Binary
1.456	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
0.887	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
0.749	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
0.038	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-0.359	What will the Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot (for the 2026 midterms) on December 2, 2025?	Continuous
-1.180	Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?	Binary
-2.754	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
-4.737	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Lebanon)	Binary
-5.440	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-5.689	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-6.085	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
-6.351	Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?	Binary
-9.190	Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?	Binary
-9.845	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
-10.608	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
-10.915	Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?	Binary
-11.113	Who will win the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-11.505	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-12.052	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-12.108	How many incidents of unruly passengers will the FAA report for September 2025?	Continuous
-12.191	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-12.358	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-15.818	What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the excise tax rate on remittances in tax year 2026?	Continuous
-17.227	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-18.008	Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?	Binary
-21.576	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
-22.832	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-24.314	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-26.232	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
-30.593	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-33.126	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill cut the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or food stamps)?	Continuous
-35.577	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
-37.716	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
-38.889	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-42.272	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-45.293	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
-46.988	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-50.551	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase spending on defense?	Continuous
-51.487	Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?	Binary
-53.231	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-53.403	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-54.809	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-59.299	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-59.585	Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?	Binary
-62.765	What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the excise tax rate on university endowments in tax year 2026?	Continuous
-69.315	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
-72.124	Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?	Binary
-72.340	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-74.752	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-83.631	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
-95.501	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-98.660	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-104.638	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-110.830	Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-139.530	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-155.778	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
-158.091	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-164.144	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
-206.717	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
-213.126	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-220.905	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-315.782	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary