datscilly

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.15		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
120.039	95.0%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
109.979	99.4%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
103.369	99.9%	What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years? (2025)	Continuous
92.063	99.5%	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024)	Continuous
88.599	98.1%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context))	Continuous
83.334	99.9%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
77.993	98.3%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
77.137	95.8%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
75.511	84.5%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
74.159	99.5%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
68.417	98.1%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context))	Continuous
58.148	98.1%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens)	Continuous
57.431	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
57.379	99.5%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
57.179	92.5%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
57.149	90.7%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
55.947	61.2%	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
55.261	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
55.165	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
54.725	98.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
53.318	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
52.757	99.2%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
50.540	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington)	Continuous
48.538	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
46.707	99.4%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
45.417	58.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
45.323	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
45.221	99.4%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
45.193	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
43.132	84.7%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
40.980	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
40.493	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
40.381	98.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
37.751	95.4%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
36.677	96.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
36.310	94.7%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
36.196	65.0%	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
35.738	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
34.079	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
32.974	97.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
32.750	93.5%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
32.375	98.8%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
32.310	45.1%	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
32.047	98.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
31.698	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
31.025	22.4%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
31.012	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
30.896	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
30.777	98.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
30.616	84.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
30.288	96.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
29.415	98.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
29.375	99.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
29.134	97.3%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
28.854	98.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
28.559	68.9%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
28.455	99.4%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
28.307	95.7%	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
28.257	99.5%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
28.110	99.4%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
27.536	69.8%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
27.186	89.8%	BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
27.016	92.2%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
26.719	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
26.683	99.4%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
26.409	98.8%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
26.297	98.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
25.741	97.7%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
25.558	99.4%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
24.191	99.8%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
24.098	98.8%	COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19)	Continuous
23.333	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
22.583	99.1%	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
22.304	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
21.984	67.7%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
21.819	97.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
21.636	77.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City)	Binary
21.073	99.9%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
21.029	97.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
20.893	74.0%	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
20.717	84.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
20.645	92.5%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
20.532	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
20.456	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
20.288	97.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
19.793	97.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
19.567	66.3%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
19.240	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
18.777	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
18.710	99.4%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
18.669	18.0%	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
18.483	99.9%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
18.448	85.5%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
17.974	28.6%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
17.105	92.4%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
17.019	37.8%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
16.705	97.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
15.413	92.2%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
15.338	92.2%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
15.202	99.1%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
15.107	91.7%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
14.922	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
13.805	84.5%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
13.595	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
13.414	99.7%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
13.261	98.8%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
13.140	84.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
12.910	98.0%	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
12.859	99.4%	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
12.827	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
12.612	98.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
12.465	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
12.437	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
11.703	98.6%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
11.483	99.1%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
11.293	42.1%	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
10.922	99.2%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.698	93.4%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
10.269	92.2%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
10.254	77.4%	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
10.165	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
10.151	97.6%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
10.151	99.7%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
9.879	17.4%	When will the first Activision/Blizzard/King game be added to Xbox Game Pass?	Continuous
9.837	92.5%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
9.782	99.2%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
9.626	63.7%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
9.361	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
9.203	90.2%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
8.931	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
8.681	87.0%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
8.666	92.2%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
8.616	84.9%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
8.294	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
8.281	99.1%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
8.281	99.1%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
8.228	99.1%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
8.094	99.2%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.684	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
7.661	76.1%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
7.546	99.1%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.487	99.2%	Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined)	Continuous
7.303	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
7.153	95.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
6.875	98.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
6.808	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
6.401	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
6.198	65.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
6.172	99.5%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
6.091	65.8%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
6.008	98.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
5.958	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
5.769	98.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
5.532	84.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
5.506	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
5.470	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
5.399	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
5.388	85.5%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
5.221	98.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
5.160	45.3%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
5.152	36.0%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
5.092	84.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
5.066	5.0%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
5.058	98.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
5.054	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
4.939	93.3%	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before)	Binary
4.834	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
4.785	92.2%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
4.676	99.8%	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
4.538	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
4.476	84.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
4.404	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
4.328	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
4.285	98.9%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
4.274	20.6%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
4.236	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
4.216	98.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.161	84.5%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
4.134	97.0%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
4.094	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
4.089	99.9%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
3.975	87.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich)	Binary
3.832	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.807	99.1%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
3.793	98.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
3.775	19.5%	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
3.719	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
3.656	67.2%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024)	Continuous
3.651	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
3.505	94.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
3.479	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
3.427	79.6%	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
3.421	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
3.363	99.1%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
3.260	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
3.226	85.5%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.152	97.3%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
3.107	42.5%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024)	Continuous
3.093	92.2%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.087	32.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
2.991	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
2.962	98.9%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
2.889	99.2%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
2.801	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
2.755	77.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal)	Binary
2.751	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
2.723	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
2.709	98.3%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
2.635	65.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
2.570	36.1%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
2.363	7.1%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
2.323	98.0%	What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024?	Continuous
2.287	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
2.225	81.3%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
2.168	99.7%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
2.114	95.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.063	65.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
1.952	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
1.896	56.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad)	Binary
1.870	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
1.869	96.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
1.863	84.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.782	57.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig)	Binary
1.667	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.651	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
1.638	63.7%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
1.638	60.8%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan)	Binary
1.574	19.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
1.560	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
1.550	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
1.495	60.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto)	Binary
1.478	76.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona)	Binary
1.475	87.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
1.416	19.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.328	56.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio)	Binary
1.327	60.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV)	Binary
1.326	98.3%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
1.238	57.8%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen)	Binary
1.229	58.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
1.194	98.8%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
1.154	93.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
1.147	7.1%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.138	98.9%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
1.128	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
1.102	44.2%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
1.099	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
1.076	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
1.061	97.0%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
1.059	65.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
0.982	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.974	98.0%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
0.941	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
0.908	22.1%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
0.858	10.5%	Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?	Binary
0.801	99.0%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
0.784	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.772	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.760	17.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.757	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.728	32.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
0.727	72.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
0.723	17.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray)	Binary
0.712	18.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
0.709	97.7%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
0.704	19.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.656	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
0.637	17.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga)	Binary
0.592	11.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla)	Binary
0.580	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.571	1.6%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.571	76.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid)	Binary
0.539	65.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
0.521	84.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.514	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
0.510	11.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens)	Binary
0.504	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
0.494	11.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord)	Binary
0.468	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.456	93.1%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
0.432	11.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda)	Binary
0.430	94.8%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
0.408	6.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.397	18.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk)	Binary
0.382	17.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.362	18.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan)	Binary
0.362	99.5%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
0.354	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.349	11.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic)	Binary
0.337	86.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain)	Binary
0.244	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.188	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.181	7.1%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.174	21.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.172	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.166	75.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.161	7.1%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.120	7.1%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.109	21.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.095	95.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.089	72.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.086	1.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp)	Binary
0.079	7.1%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.076	1.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg)	Binary
0.075	1.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica)	Binary
0.072	1.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin)	Binary
0.056	99.2%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
0.038	1.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys)	Binary
0.032	80.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
0.002	72.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
-0.014	87.3%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
-0.039	46.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
-0.045	95.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
-0.074	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-0.114	77.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
-0.221	58.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
-0.241	81.3%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
-0.277	84.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
-0.319	82.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
-0.345	84.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
-0.475	92.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
-0.506	94.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
-0.535	49.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
-0.581	95.0%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
-0.607	49.9%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
-0.677	11.4%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
-0.863	4.0%	When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?	Continuous
-0.872	60.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli)	Binary
-0.938	97.0%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
-0.956	77.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
-1.069	58.4%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024)	Continuous
-1.229	98.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
-1.275	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
-1.495	98.8%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
-1.511	97.0%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
-1.548	98.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
-1.639	39.7%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
-1.875	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
-2.695	99.1%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.774	93.3%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-3.339	19.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
-3.680	81.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
-3.843	69.9%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
-4.571	81.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
-4.864	91.5%	What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-5.101	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
-5.493	78.0%	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
-5.670	97.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
-6.221	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
-6.437	98.2%	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
-6.564	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
-6.802	98.1%	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
-7.611	85.5%	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
-7.732	98.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
-8.540	65.1%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
-8.717	98.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
-10.744	89.3%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
-11.030	64.6%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
-11.216	87.3%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
-11.540	97.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-12.662	80.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
-13.608	99.4%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-18.687	93.2%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-19.518	42.3%	Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?	Binary
-21.471	98.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
-44.351	97.0%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary