107.592 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
71.095 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
66.813 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
62.839 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-22) | Continuous |
60.352 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
56.075 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
50.168 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
49.924 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
47.713 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.479 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
44.217 | How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022? | Continuous |
42.212 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
38.700 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
38.474 | What will Meta’s yearly spending on Reality Labs be? (2023) | Continuous |
37.656 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
37.431 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
35.867 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
35.104 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
34.506 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation) | Binary |
34.471 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
34.455 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
33.833 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
31.546 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
30.343 | What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023? | Continuous |
30.043 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
28.537 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
23.527 | Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023? | Binary |
22.242 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
22.110 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
21.619 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.006 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment) | Binary |
20.989 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
20.847 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
20.424 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
20.133 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
19.539 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
19.087 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking) | Binary |
18.082 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
18.065 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
17.369 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
15.481 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
15.238 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
15.225 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
15.173 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.978 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
14.430 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
13.604 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
13.200 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.982 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
12.909 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
12.358 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
12.099 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
11.388 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
10.737 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
10.569 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
10.267 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
10.067 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
9.648 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
9.588 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
9.396 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
9.094 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
8.777 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
8.731 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
8.498 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
8.343 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
7.751 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
7.744 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
7.549 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
7.417 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
7.285 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
7.268 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
7.211 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
7.117 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
7.110 | When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day? | Continuous |
7.089 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
6.978 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
6.795 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
6.763 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
6.478 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
6.431 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
6.155 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
6.127 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
5.888 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
5.811 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
5.523 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
5.481 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
5.005 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
4.819 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
4.735 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
4.726 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
4.695 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
4.502 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
4.493 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
4.492 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
4.444 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
4.363 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
4.241 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
3.879 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
3.740 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
3.670 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
3.664 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
3.596 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
3.434 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
3.342 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
3.237 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
3.190 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
2.853 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
2.588 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
2.496 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
2.469 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
2.385 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
2.355 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
2.240 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
2.208 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
2.190 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
2.186 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
2.137 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
2.133 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
2.116 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
2.108 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
2.085 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
2.074 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
1.980 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
1.979 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
1.960 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
1.958 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
1.931 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
1.930 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
1.922 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
1.916 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
1.894 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
1.850 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
1.847 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.784 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
1.754 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
1.698 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
1.668 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
1.624 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
1.617 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
1.595 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
1.592 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
1.576 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
1.555 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
1.540 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
1.505 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
1.484 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
1.460 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
1.459 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
1.449 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
1.445 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
1.424 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
1.280 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
1.229 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
1.162 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
1.135 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
1.077 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
1.020 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
1.015 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
0.973 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
0.942 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
0.854 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
0.806 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
0.691 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
0.690 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
0.540 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
0.529 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
0.498 | What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
0.446 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
0.355 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
0.231 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
0.198 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
0.143 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
0.077 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
0.038 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
0.035 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
0.025 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
0.011 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
0.010 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
-0.064 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
-0.287 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
-0.583 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
-1.226 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
-1.576 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
-1.990 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
-2.602 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
-2.784 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
-3.616 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
-3.830 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
-4.424 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
-5.028 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.137 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
-5.470 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
-5.603 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-5.610 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
-5.718 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
-6.341 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
-7.104 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
-7.722 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
-8.126 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
-8.423 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
-9.345 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
-9.717 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023) | Continuous |
-11.851 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
-13.007 | What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022? | Continuous |
-14.933 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
-15.051 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
-18.094 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
-20.040 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
-21.916 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
-22.062 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-27.239 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
-28.508 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
-31.121 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
-47.092 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
-117.873 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |