aristophanes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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18.67		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
88.716	95.6%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
77.965	76.5%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
65.975	98.2%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
64.325	79.5%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
64.246	90.9%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
57.234	62.1%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
50.327	93.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
50.227	77.7%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
45.125	81.1%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
42.673	86.4%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
42.589	81.8%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
41.943	98.4%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
40.250	44.5%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
37.224	86.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
36.319	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
36.315	81.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
33.270	97.9%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
32.100	84.9%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
31.903	95.6%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.572	77.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
31.480	94.0%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
31.289	86.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
30.052	72.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
29.308	99.4%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
28.344	77.4%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
27.723	98.7%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
26.787	89.7%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
26.290	76.3%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
26.108	72.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
23.393	32.8%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.904	80.0%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
20.721	91.4%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
20.488	96.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
20.005	96.0%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
19.920	95.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
19.668	96.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
19.634	96.0%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
19.112	33.3%	When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?	Continuous
19.055	95.1%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
18.322	77.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
18.090	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
17.554	90.0%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
17.340	77.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
16.564	96.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
16.375	77.4%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
16.144	79.0%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
14.799	96.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
13.850	71.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
12.184	44.8%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
11.663	95.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
11.168	83.5%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
10.797	18.1%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
10.648	64.7%	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
10.314	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
10.222	87.2%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
9.865	96.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
9.418	75.9%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
8.867	92.5%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
8.582	51.1%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
8.416	77.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
8.409	96.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
8.333	28.8%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
7.243	67.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
7.187	26.3%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
7.065	14.5%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.042	23.4%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
6.952	78.2%	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
6.866	96.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
6.804	78.2%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
6.339	95.8%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
6.189	96.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
5.531	39.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
4.955	6.4%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
4.835	96.8%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
4.743	78.2%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
4.642	76.1%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
3.786	41.2%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
3.416	18.7%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
3.372	3.3%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
2.231	78.2%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
2.040	9.8%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
1.813	79.9%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
1.490	22.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
1.370	8.2%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
1.040	25.3%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
0.823	50.8%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.767	10.9%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
0.762	96.7%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.661	16.2%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
0.409	86.0%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
0.161	0.9%	Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.100	1.7%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
0.071	0.4%	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100)	Binary
0.016	0.1%	Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?	Binary
-1.122	56.6%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-1.417	37.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-1.431	96.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
-2.741	64.1%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-2.813	95.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-3.190	68.2%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-9.653	62.3%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-10.453	10.8%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-15.192	86.8%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
-17.573	96.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
-18.257	58.6%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-18.674	93.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
-21.624	94.7%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
-22.082	96.0%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-22.259	95.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-22.920	96.0%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-32.805	88.8%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
-37.674	33.2%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-141.128	92.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary