M

Duration:1 year
Time Period:2021
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
4.003Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
63.629What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?Continuous
25.296On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?Continuous
20.680What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?Continuous
20.480What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021Continuous
17.837Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?Binary
17.276When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?Continuous
16.182What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?Continuous
15.328How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?Continuous
15.217Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?Binary
14.680What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?Continuous
13.092On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?Binary
12.427Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?Binary
11.474Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?Binary
10.303Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?Binary
10.266What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?Continuous
8.131Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?Binary
7.296What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?Continuous
7.243When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?Continuous
6.638What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?Continuous
6.591What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?Continuous
6.483How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)Continuous
6.457How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?Continuous
6.363What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?Continuous
6.049For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?Continuous
5.917What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?Continuous
5.899For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?Continuous
5.826What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?Continuous
5.517Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?Binary
5.479What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?Continuous
5.397Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?Binary
5.227What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?Continuous
4.917What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?Continuous
4.815When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?Continuous
4.798What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?Continuous
4.415Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?Binary
3.938What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?Continuous
3.793When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?Continuous
3.788Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?Binary
3.596Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?Binary
3.481How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?Continuous
3.404Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?Binary
3.358Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?Binary
3.327What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?Continuous
3.265What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?Continuous
3.184Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?Binary
3.100What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?Continuous
3.081What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?Continuous
3.078Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?Binary
3.035Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?Binary
2.869Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?Binary
2.689What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?Continuous
2.601Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?Binary
2.442[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?Continuous
2.371Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?Binary
2.317Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?Binary
2.221What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?Continuous
2.213Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?Binary
2.193Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?Binary
2.161Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?Binary
2.100Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?Binary
1.921When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?Continuous
1.914What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?Continuous
1.878Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?Binary
1.751Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?Binary
1.578Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?Binary
1.552Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?Binary
1.513When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?Continuous
1.425In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?Binary
1.298What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?Continuous
1.291What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?Continuous
1.217What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?Continuous
1.115What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?Continuous
1.090What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?Continuous
1.052[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?Binary
0.935What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?Continuous
0.843What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?Continuous
0.825Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?Binary
0.806What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?Continuous
0.795How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?Continuous
0.780What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?Continuous
0.697How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?Continuous
0.521When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?Continuous
0.505Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?Binary
0.265When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?Continuous
0.242When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?Continuous
0.212Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?Binary
0.128Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?Binary
0.118Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?Binary
0.095Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?Binary
0.033Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?Binary
0.031[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?Binary
0.029Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?Binary
-0.052What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?Continuous
-0.185What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?Continuous
-0.274What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?Continuous
-0.301On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?Binary
-0.346What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?Continuous
-0.354Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?Binary
-0.513What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?Continuous
-0.844Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?Binary
-1.044Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?Binary
-2.171When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?Continuous
-4.015How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?Continuous
-8.151What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?Continuous
-8.534Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?Binary
-9.575Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?Binary
-14.629Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?Continuous
-22.377What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?Continuous