citizen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.749	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
78.470	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
78.459	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
76.571	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
75.722	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
62.334	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
59.105	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
53.276	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
52.652	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
49.585	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
47.964	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
45.273	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
44.316	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
43.209	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
43.165	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
42.389	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
41.704	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
40.743	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.030	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
37.364	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
37.140	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
37.009	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
35.745	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
34.996	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
34.927	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
33.955	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
33.603	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
32.527	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
31.400	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
31.335	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024?	Continuous
31.219	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
30.905	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
30.821	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
30.804	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
27.809	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
27.809	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
27.388	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
27.030	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
26.269	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
26.126	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
26.077	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
24.209	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
24.176	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
23.607	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
23.410	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
20.814	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
20.806	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
20.400	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
20.296	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
19.883	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
19.842	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.552	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
18.939	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
18.812	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
18.756	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
18.724	How much total trade volume (in 2021 USD) will Israel and Turkey trade in 2022?	Continuous
18.651	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
18.602	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
18.060	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
17.980	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
17.887	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
17.856	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
17.553	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
17.553	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
17.101	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
16.824	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.616	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
16.458	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
16.432	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
15.820	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
15.760	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
15.752	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
15.675	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
15.336	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
14.946	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.860	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
14.853	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
14.618	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.604	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
14.389	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
13.967	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
13.896	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
13.879	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
13.859	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
13.573	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.317	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
13.077	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
12.810	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia)	Continuous
12.693	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
12.653	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
12.528	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
12.506	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023)	Continuous
12.439	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
12.345	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
12.172	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
12.122	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
11.588	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
11.493	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
11.418	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
11.081	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
10.960	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.899	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
10.811	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.695	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
10.343	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
10.248	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
10.047	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.029	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary
10.009	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
9.742	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
9.718	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
9.712	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
9.503	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
9.478	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
9.473	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
9.391	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
9.195	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
9.005	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
8.894	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
8.881	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
8.814	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
8.335	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
8.266	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
8.215	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
8.127	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
7.994	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.810	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
7.807	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
7.701	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
7.630	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
7.623	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
7.610	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
7.492	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
7.481	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
7.436	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
7.213	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
7.141	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
7.067	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
6.998	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
6.935	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
6.661	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.584	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
6.476	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.428	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
6.330	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
6.265	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
6.085	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.073	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.028	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
6.022	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
5.948	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
5.628	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
5.544	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
5.306	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
5.305	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
5.241	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
5.068	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
4.959	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
4.908	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
4.892	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
4.878	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.867	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
4.708	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
4.663	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
4.638	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
4.543	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
4.464	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
4.349	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
4.328	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.983	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
3.965	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
3.693	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023)	Continuous
3.630	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
3.587	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.509	What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?	Continuous
3.293	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
3.213	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.209	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
3.202	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
3.174	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.152	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
3.148	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
3.113	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
3.108	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka)	Continuous
3.077	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.865	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
2.813	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
2.799	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
2.781	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
2.709	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
2.700	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
2.681	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
2.669	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
2.651	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.550	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
2.536	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
2.522	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
2.520	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
2.516	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
2.497	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
2.291	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
2.284	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
2.261	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
2.234	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
2.136	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
2.059	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
2.043	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
1.965	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
1.963	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
1.903	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
1.853	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
1.754	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
1.698	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
1.684	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
1.633	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
1.605	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
1.597	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
1.549	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
1.536	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
1.519	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
1.469	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
1.447	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
1.447	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
1.445	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
1.408	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
1.404	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
1.332	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
1.286	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
1.179	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
1.087	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
1.076	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.003	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
0.984	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.975	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots)	Binary
0.954	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
0.920	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
0.895	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.812	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
0.781	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
0.779	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
0.761	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
0.737	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
0.686	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
0.664	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
0.594	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
0.538	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
0.390	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
0.387	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
0.376	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
0.350	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
0.327	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
0.296	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
0.286	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
0.273	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
0.261	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
0.252	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots)	Binary
0.179	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
0.168	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
0.137	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
0.136	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants)	Binary
0.134	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
0.129	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
0.093	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.083	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
0.064	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
0.062	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.031	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.024	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.019	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.015	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.015	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
0.012	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
0.009	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets)	Binary
0.007	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
-0.005	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
-0.005	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-0.007	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
-0.012	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
-0.132	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
-0.290	In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?	Continuous
-0.297	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
-0.332	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-0.393	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23)	Continuous
-0.568	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-0.845	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
-0.882	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
-1.018	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
-1.022	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
-1.039	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
-1.267	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
-1.315	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.337	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
-1.424	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
-1.440	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
-1.529	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
-1.656	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-2.036	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
-2.259	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-2.913	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
-3.001	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2)	Continuous
-3.368	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-3.533	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
-3.539	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-3.658	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
-3.884	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
-4.021	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-4.169	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
-4.869	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
-4.870	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
-5.099	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-5.680	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.791	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
-5.996	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
-7.642	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
-7.643	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
-8.068	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-8.402	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-9.204	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
-10.960	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-12.455	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-13.323	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
-13.528	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-14.242	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan)	Continuous
-14.720	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
-14.906	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
-15.255	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-15.264	In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?	Continuous
-16.413	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
-16.749	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
-17.653	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-22)	Continuous
-20.825	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
-21.152	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-21.614	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
-22.512	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
-22.710	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan)	Continuous
-23.068	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda)	Continuous
-23.918	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon)	Continuous
-25.249	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
-25.313	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-25.440	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
-28.120	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
-29.514	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-33.216	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
-34.610	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-38.355	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti)	Continuous
-46.937	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-55.618	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-56.617	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
-64.276	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary