| 78.327 | 87.7% | What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024? | Continuous |
| 61.894 | 99.8% | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 57.285 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Sheffield United) | Continuous |
| 54.782 | 98.4% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 53.199 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 46.573 | 99.8% | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 43.247 | 82.5% | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 43.191 | 57.6% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 41.271 | 99.8% | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 36.199 | 99.5% | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 36.034 | 98.7% | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 35.100 | 99.9% | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 33.699 | 99.3% | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 33.197 | 48.3% | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 33.004 | 99.3% | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 32.722 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 32.694 | 72.3% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 32.326 | 99.2% | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 31.534 | 100.0% | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.258 | 99.3% | By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025) | Binary |
| 29.608 | 97.9% | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.276 | 92.6% | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 28.932 | 99.8% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 28.338 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 28.116 | 55.5% | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024)) | Continuous |
| 24.203 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 23.209 | 81.9% | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.086 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 22.816 | 72.3% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 21.760 | 38.3% | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024)) | Continuous |
| 21.199 | 27.3% | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.032 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 20.937 | 99.7% | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 19.210 | 30.9% | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 19.094 | 98.8% | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 18.940 | 99.7% | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 18.489 | 37.5% | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 18.481 | 99.7% | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023) | Continuous |
| 18.268 | 95.2% | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 18.175 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 18.110 | 60.1% | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 17.994 | 72.3% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 17.956 | 59.5% | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.707 | 54.0% | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.643 | 43.5% | What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024) | Continuous |
| 17.547 | 99.0% | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.313 | 99.2% | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 17.312 | 25.0% | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.208 | 99.8% | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 16.192 | 25.5% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 16.064 | 78.3% | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 15.971 | 97.4% | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.852 | 81.4% | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 15.632 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 15.282 | 99.6% | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.035 | 93.4% | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 14.580 | 25.4% | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| 14.187 | 78.2% | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 14.082 | 95.9% | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 14.012 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 14.001 | 91.7% | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 13.645 | 99.4% | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 13.574 | 98.8% | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 13.442 | 39.6% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 13.348 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Burnley) | Continuous |
| 13.161 | 94.9% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| 13.151 | 55.3% | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 12.422 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Luton Town) | Continuous |
| 12.137 | 98.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 12.097 | 100.0% | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.970 | 62.8% | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.761 | 99.7% | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 11.596 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 11.263 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 11.096 | 52.0% | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.035 | 99.0% | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 10.836 | 96.2% | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 10.617 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 10.542 | 77.3% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 10.412 | 61.3% | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.383 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 9.787 | 57.6% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 9.691 | 40.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 9.597 | 99.3% | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 9.391 | 98.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 9.246 | 98.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 9.122 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 9.064 | 98.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 8.948 | 99.9% | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.942 | 40.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 8.846 | 58.8% | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.790 | 50.0% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 8.779 | 57.0% | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 8.777 | 63.3% | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.283 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 7.947 | 98.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 7.846 | 57.6% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.579 | 38.9% | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.496 | 52.7% | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics) | Binary |
| 7.295 | 17.5% | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 7.175 | 40.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 6.975 | 29.9% | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 6.831 | 40.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 6.756 | 89.1% | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.661 | 32.0% | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.522 | 84.4% | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 6.490 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 6.230 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 6.186 | 99.7% | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 6.161 | 99.1% | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.013 | 38.9% | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.968 | 26.4% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 5.957 | 84.4% | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 5.826 | 44.3% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 5.805 | 41.0% | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.726 | 89.7% | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.703 | 57.6% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 5.598 | 94.2% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 5.570 | 35.4% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.534 | 76.9% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 5.508 | 35.1% | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 5.502 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 5.472 | 94.2% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 5.387 | 40.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 5.368 | 78.3% | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 5.141 | 99.8% | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 5.132 | 99.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 5.105 | 84.4% | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 4.990 | 51.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 4.947 | 51.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 4.881 | 95.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 4.718 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 4.707 | 38.9% | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.626 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 4.617 | 94.2% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 4.609 | 98.2% | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 4.572 | 99.9% | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.557 | 99.7% | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 4.466 | 58.9% | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 4.406 | 17.5% | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 4.244 | 49.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 4.221 | 99.7% | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 4.215 | 98.3% | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 4.193 | 51.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 4.171 | 99.8% | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.164 | 74.8% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 4.161 | 97.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.025 | 57.2% | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.013 | 54.2% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 3.986 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 3.939 | 98.8% | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 3.886 | 76.8% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 3.846 | 32.1% | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.766 | 99.9% | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 3.649 | 50.8% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 3.643 | 17.5% | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 3.581 | 78.3% | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 3.467 | 45.0% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 3.406 | 20.5% | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.359 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 3.348 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 3.320 | 52.7% | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky) | Binary |
| 3.243 | 44.3% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 3.199 | 52.7% | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks) | Binary |
| 3.193 | 17.5% | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 3.185 | 43.7% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 3.132 | 49.7% | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.104 | 41.5% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 2.919 | 5.8% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 2.897 | 40.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 2.892 | 38.9% | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.872 | 12.9% | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 2.797 | 99.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 2.785 | 59.5% | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| 2.765 | 60.9% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 2.748 | 89.7% | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.659 | 95.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.637 | 95.1% | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.633 | 44.3% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 2.619 | 99.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 2.535 | 77.5% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 2.477 | 76.8% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 2.456 | 57.0% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 2.443 | 99.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 2.431 | 35.8% | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.197 | 30.9% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 2.179 | 57.5% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 2.102 | 97.2% | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.098 | 68.0% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 2.076 | 60.3% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 2.045 | 76.5% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 2.037 | 22.1% | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 2.004 | 51.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 2.000 | 49.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 1.971 | 26.4% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 1.965 | 43.8% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 1.938 | 82.9% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 1.932 | 53.3% | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 1.923 | 99.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 1.912 | 60.9% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 1.905 | 44.3% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 1.899 | 81.7% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 1.895 | 4.8% | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| 1.887 | 57.6% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 1.877 | 57.7% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 1.876 | 57.0% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 1.860 | 57.7% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 1.814 | 71.2% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 1.795 | 58.0% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 1.772 | 53.3% | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 1.756 | 28.6% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 1.744 | 72.3% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 1.713 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 1.678 | 39.6% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 1.650 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 1.647 | 96.2% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 1.644 | 70.5% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 1.619 | 86.5% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 1.568 | 53.5% | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream) | Binary |
| 1.565 | 99.8% | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 1.563 | 62.0% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 1.555 | 99.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 1.555 | 33.9% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 1.550 | 100.0% | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.478 | 66.6% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 1.461 | 62.0% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 1.417 | 100.0% | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 1.407 | 77.3% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 1.390 | 49.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 1.385 | 72.2% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 1.379 | 48.8% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| 1.374 | 41.4% | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 1.343 | 75.3% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 1.313 | 60.4% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 1.300 | 5.7% | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 1.294 | 83.2% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 1.271 | 16.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 1.271 | 77.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 1.221 | 57.9% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 1.220 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 1.219 | 49.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 1.206 | 55.0% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 1.196 | 16.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 1.196 | 54.7% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 1.175 | 66.6% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 1.168 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 1.125 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 1.113 | 98.2% | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 1.080 | 99.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 1.055 | 71.3% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 1.047 | 24.1% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 1.029 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 1.024 | 5.8% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 0.998 | 99.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.979 | 60.3% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 0.967 | 87.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 0.905 | 49.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 0.904 | 18.1% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 0.900 | 17.7% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 0.831 | 25.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 0.813 | 17.6% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 0.804 | 17.7% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 0.780 | 98.8% | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 0.776 | 18.1% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 0.769 | 12.0% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 0.764 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.756 | 49.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 0.753 | 25.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 0.752 | 1.5% | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 0.746 | 72.2% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 0.659 | 72.2% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 0.633 | 11.6% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 0.611 | 11.1% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 0.611 | 11.6% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 0.576 | 94.8% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 0.576 | 18.1% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 0.546 | 11.1% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 0.537 | 2.4% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 0.536 | 22.6% | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 0.514 | 63.1% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.493 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 0.490 | 84.1% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 0.482 | 5.8% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 0.467 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 0.465 | 82.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 0.463 | 11.1% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 0.458 | 4.8% | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.445 | 49.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 0.423 | 84.1% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 0.393 | 2.4% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 0.383 | 15.5% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 0.348 | 22.0% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.347 | 88.8% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 0.338 | 90.3% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 0.315 | 43.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 0.259 | 5.8% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 0.241 | 1.5% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 0.180 | 5.8% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 0.174 | 22.0% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 0.157 | 87.2% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 0.139 | 5.8% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 0.114 | 1.2% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 0.109 | 5.8% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 0.102 | 1.7% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 0.101 | 1.6% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 0.097 | 1.6% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 0.077 | 2.4% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 0.077 | 2.4% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 0.056 | 1.2% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 0.029 | 2.4% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 0.024 | 2.4% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 0.023 | 2.4% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 0.013 | 4.8% | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| -0.110 | 59.6% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| -0.157 | 99.8% | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -0.164 | 22.6% | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.294 | 4.8% | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -0.407 | 23.6% | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| -0.466 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| -0.608 | 94.9% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| -1.032 | 98.4% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| -1.098 | 75.3% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| -1.360 | 70.1% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| -3.716 | 57.6% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -3.718 | 76.0% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| -3.841 | 99.8% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -4.138 | 98.8% | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| -4.614 | 87.7% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| -5.191 | 47.0% | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| -8.581 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| -8.736 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| -10.154 | 97.7% | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -10.552 | 54.0% | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -10.613 | 30.0% | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -12.073 | 84.0% | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| -12.599 | 99.8% | What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -12.801 | 86.7% | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| -13.197 | 99.7% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| -13.782 | 83.3% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| -18.363 | 60.4% | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| -23.283 | 99.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| -47.150 | 99.0% | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -47.575 | 36.5% | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| -81.530 | 78.0% | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -110.566 | 98.0% | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |