TemetNosce

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.01		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
180.060	91.1%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
48.326	31.4%	How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024?	Continuous
46.880	76.3%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
46.000	94.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
44.977	68.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
36.679	68.7%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
36.565	68.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
36.454	57.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
35.980	49.1%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
35.948	79.0%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
33.647	51.1%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
32.660	99.4%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
31.170	94.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
30.823	38.3%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
30.618	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
29.944	68.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
29.149	62.8%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
28.303	100.0%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
28.089	68.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
27.910	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
25.747	31.0%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
24.105	68.1%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
23.561	37.9%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
23.529	68.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
21.908	88.6%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
21.886	68.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
21.789	54.2%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
21.735	28.1%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
21.583	99.1%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
21.539	94.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
21.358	99.1%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
20.690	31.2%	Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31)	Binary
20.395	97.6%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
18.716	62.8%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
18.647	96.8%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
17.993	51.9%	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2024)	Continuous
17.806	36.3%	How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024))	Continuous
17.197	76.3%	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
17.076	99.5%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
16.797	97.7%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
16.231	84.2%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
16.006	47.6%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
15.377	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
15.091	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
14.721	91.4%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
14.388	40.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24)	Continuous
14.356	25.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens)	Continuous
14.141	92.1%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
13.871	29.9%	BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
13.583	62.8%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
12.729	80.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
12.148	31.7%	Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?	Binary
12.022	36.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
12.004	24.9%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
11.805	63.9%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
11.794	76.5%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
11.793	18.4%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
11.522	29.9%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
11.506	75.4%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
11.407	20.2%	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
11.100	28.4%	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
10.977	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
10.885	97.2%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.797	23.5%	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
10.738	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
10.561	7.2%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
10.530	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
10.423	60.9%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.190	21.1%	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
10.110	91.9%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
9.894	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
9.861	20.1%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
9.794	8.1%	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
9.507	94.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
9.366	99.1%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
9.343	97.4%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
9.047	46.8%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
9.000	10.5%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis)	Continuous
8.912	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
8.870	69.9%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
8.833	24.1%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
8.782	30.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
8.699	28.4%	Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?	Binary
8.640	16.7%	How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024))	Continuous
8.298	30.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
7.895	62.8%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.829	20.2%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
7.807	94.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
7.771	66.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
7.576	80.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
7.484	27.7%	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
7.401	97.3%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.296	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
7.257	15.1%	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
7.256	13.4%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK)	Continuous
7.131	53.0%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
7.092	31.1%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
7.081	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
7.010	7.9%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Continuous
6.959	24.1%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
6.938	13.7%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
6.806	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
6.528	68.4%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.449	19.8%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
6.374	36.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
6.365	38.5%	When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?	Continuous
6.293	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
6.263	27.9%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24)	Continuous
6.147	24.1%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
6.134	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
6.063	46.8%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
6.055	24.8%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
6.017	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
5.995	97.4%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.984	25.1%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024)	Continuous
5.958	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
5.892	46.8%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
5.885	62.8%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.882	19.6%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
5.845	11.9%	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
5.809	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
5.775	48.2%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
5.736	46.8%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
5.717	20.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales)	Continuous
5.693	34.4%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24)	Continuous
5.607	13.7%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
5.567	8.3%	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
5.471	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
5.439	27.5%	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
5.420	56.7%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
5.381	36.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
5.361	35.3%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
5.351	24.1%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
5.310	18.3%	Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?	Binary
5.228	47.1%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
5.168	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
5.049	21.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
5.045	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
5.010	94.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.920	7.6%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
4.855	96.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.813	67.2%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
4.756	62.8%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
4.664	30.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
4.504	20.8%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
4.414	46.8%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
4.391	100.0%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
4.273	24.0%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
4.254	10.7%	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024)	Continuous
4.249	11.8%	Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election?	Binary
4.225	62.8%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
4.211	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
4.164	97.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.015	35.7%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
4.013	72.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
3.962	10.3%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
3.843	97.8%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
3.762	26.8%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
3.747	20.2%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
3.718	5.8%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
3.508	62.6%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
3.463	30.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.447	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
3.446	36.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
3.441	24.1%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
3.400	13.7%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
3.349	11.1%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
3.338	19.7%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
3.331	12.0%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
3.267	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
3.247	36.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
3.239	27.7%	Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?	Binary
3.226	24.7%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
3.176	7.6%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
2.992	19.7%	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
2.842	8.8%	What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025?	Continuous
2.776	99.1%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
2.749	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
2.704	21.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
2.702	10.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
2.683	13.7%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
2.675	7.6%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
2.639	22.9%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
2.581	21.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
2.478	10.9%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
2.454	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
2.390	23.4%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
2.385	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
2.343	63.9%	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
2.337	33.5%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
2.318	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.318	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
2.269	82.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.226	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
2.212	27.4%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
2.198	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
2.177	46.8%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
2.090	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
2.084	12.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
2.019	2.4%	When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields?	Continuous
1.995	43.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.978	4.8%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
1.972	8.2%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
1.929	16.5%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
1.904	99.1%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
1.903	10.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
1.884	16.5%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
1.864	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
1.861	22.8%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
1.853	36.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
1.843	20.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
1.817	6.5%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
1.786	21.4%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
1.771	4.2%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
1.747	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
1.734	24.7%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
1.729	30.8%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
1.695	7.1%	What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024?	Continuous
1.674	24.8%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024)	Continuous
1.668	7.6%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.619	18.4%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
1.596	43.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.590	59.3%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
1.580	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
1.569	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
1.552	2.7%	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
1.539	36.8%	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
1.534	52.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
1.500	20.4%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
1.492	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
1.481	43.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
1.431	6.5%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24)	Continuous
1.417	4.9%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (July 2024)	Continuous
1.413	12.1%	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
1.391	43.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.384	4.7%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024)	Continuous
1.363	68.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.353	22.8%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-24)	Continuous
1.325	60.9%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
1.293	30.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
1.287	99.1%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
1.274	77.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.269	43.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
1.244	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.222	95.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.177	24.7%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
1.135	12.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
1.113	21.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
1.088	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
1.075	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.075	35.1%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.059	97.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
1.034	9.4%	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
1.018	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.015	20.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party)	Continuous
1.012	49.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
0.965	2.4%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
0.915	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
0.913	12.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
0.909	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.900	24.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
0.891	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.857	21.9%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.834	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
0.831	24.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.830	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.819	24.7%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
0.809	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
0.807	10.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
0.781	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.769	6.5%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
0.760	1.6%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-24)	Continuous
0.760	0.7%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
0.715	68.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.711	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.711	7.6%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
0.709	20.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party)	Continuous
0.666	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.646	72.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.644	68.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.600	30.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.586	30.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.576	0.7%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
0.574	38.3%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024)	Continuous
0.555	68.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.546	57.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.523	10.9%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
0.520	10.9%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
0.505	0.5%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
0.504	64.3%	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
0.483	22.4%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
0.462	81.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.404	23.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.384	79.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.371	27.3%	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
0.364	91.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.360	6.9%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.324	3.7%	Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?	Binary
0.323	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.322	9.3%	How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024))	Continuous
0.315	1.6%	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
0.289	31.5%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
0.253	11.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.248	10.9%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
0.244	1.4%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
0.241	1.5%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.236	10.9%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
0.230	1.2%	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
0.225	1.3%	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
0.222	49.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.222	10.9%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
0.217	1.3%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.201	0.7%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
0.187	0.5%	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
0.182	79.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.178	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.162	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.135	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.121	12.3%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
0.111	22.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.081	0.5%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
0.077	96.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.073	15.5%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24)	Continuous
0.066	16.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
0.036	0.5%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
0.007	93.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.005	0.2%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
-	8.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24)	Continuous
-	16.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24)	Continuous
-0.103	0.5%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
-0.136	37.1%	How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024))	Continuous
-0.156	0.7%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.189	0.5%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-0.197	0.7%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.206	99.5%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
-0.242	0.5%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
-0.401	0.5%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-0.403	0.5%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
-0.425	0.5%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-0.563	20.9%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
-0.865	5.5%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Chris Christie)	Continuous
-1.870	51.9%	How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024))	Continuous
-2.747	24.7%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
-2.752	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
-2.822	8.1%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson)	Continuous
-2.893	47.4%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024)	Continuous
-2.924	94.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
-3.662	7.7%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
-4.714	21.2%	How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-6.014	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
-6.153	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-6.209	19.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-8.917	8.0%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024)	Continuous
-9.181	24.8%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-9.544	68.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
-9.697	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-11.533	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-12.517	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
-13.996	61.5%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
-14.597	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
-14.774	85.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-15.996	87.4%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
-17.472	44.6%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
-19.127	99.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-21.291	99.2%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-39.414	25.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context))	Continuous
-48.706	25.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context))	Continuous
-61.622	63.9%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-102.794	99.2%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary