StayCalibrated

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2452	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
124.813	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
97.706	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
97.187	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
95.133	Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?	Binary
91.437	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
91.345	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
90.921	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
90.806	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
89.373	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
85.305	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
84.909	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
84.685	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
83.384	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
82.785	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
81.736	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
80.677	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
80.413	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
78.018	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
78.018	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
76.555	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
74.477	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
74.164	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
73.319	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
72.807	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
71.705	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
71.101	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
70.493	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
70.406	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
68.948	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
68.344	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
67.976	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
67.940	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
67.867	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
67.646	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
67.634	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
66.828	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
65.836	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
64.802	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
64.212	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
63.913	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
60.563	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
59.800	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
58.367	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
57.410	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
57.304	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
56.687	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
56.293	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
51.893	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
50.378	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
50.353	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
48.355	[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?	Binary
46.864	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
44.289	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
42.510	Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?	Binary
37.720	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
36.971	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
35.871	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
35.117	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
34.236	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
33.598	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
33.059	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
32.237	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
28.792	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
28.504	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
28.209	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
25.682	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
25.625	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
23.350	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
23.166	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
21.933	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
21.742	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
20.591	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
19.442	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
19.026	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
18.270	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
17.072	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
16.122	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
15.837	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
12.988	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
12.429	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
12.425	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
11.874	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
10.932	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
10.564	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
9.685	When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?	Continuous
8.187	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
7.237	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
6.550	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
5.539	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.179	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
2.331	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
0.808	How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.640	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
0.370	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
-	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-0.268	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-1.041	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
-1.636	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
-6.581	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
-6.689	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
-7.259	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-9.689	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-11.503	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
-16.678	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-18.114	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-20.273	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-21.508	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
-41.447	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
-47.196	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-48.930	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-51.060	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-54.103	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
-56.382	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-60.099	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-77.521	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-83.606	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
-85.030	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-91.585	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-94.807	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-106.710	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-133.051	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-158.941	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-193.225	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-230.487	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-366.328	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary