Vang

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.436	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
294.686	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
155.257	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
104.788	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
100.852	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
69.266	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
58.740	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
55.983	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
50.380	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan)	Continuous
45.063	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
44.142	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
42.550	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
40.286	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
38.591	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
37.995	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
37.530	When will New York City's subway ridership return to pre-COVID pandemic levels for the first time?	Continuous
37.233	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
36.404	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
35.945	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
35.311	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
35.287	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
34.636	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
34.305	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
33.531	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia)	Continuous
33.489	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
32.697	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
32.410	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
32.048	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
31.870	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
31.503	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
30.411	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
30.141	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
29.703	How much total trade volume (in 2021 USD) will Israel and Turkey trade in 2022?	Continuous
28.613	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
28.086	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
27.373	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
27.136	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
26.715	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
26.129	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
25.919	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
25.872	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
25.729	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
25.030	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
24.043	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
23.723	What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
22.910	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
22.712	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.929	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
21.897	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
21.543	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
21.421	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
20.507	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
20.336	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
19.997	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
19.864	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
19.761	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
19.734	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
19.614	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
19.334	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
19.208	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
19.182	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
19.096	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
18.564	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
18.395	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
17.620	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
17.298	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
17.286	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
17.278	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
17.077	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
16.777	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
16.098	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
16.011	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
15.895	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
15.875	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.771	What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics?	Continuous
15.710	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
15.504	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
15.465	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
15.378	What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2023)	Continuous
15.131	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
14.981	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
14.887	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
14.872	What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?	Continuous
14.662	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.598	What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?	Continuous
14.331	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.048	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.971	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
13.954	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
13.838	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
13.340	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
13.233	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.094	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
12.815	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
12.714	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.634	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
12.543	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
12.513	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022)	Continuous
12.458	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary
12.406	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
12.286	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
12.188	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
11.806	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
11.489	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
11.330	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
11.057	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
11.047	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
10.884	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
10.866	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.760	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
10.522	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
10.449	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
10.357	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
10.337	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
10.312	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
10.255	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
10.246	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
10.244	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
10.054	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
9.926	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
9.701	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
9.640	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
9.561	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
9.458	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
9.368	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
9.235	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
9.156	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
8.954	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
8.877	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
8.866	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
8.674	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
8.500	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
8.485	When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA?	Continuous
8.444	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
8.427	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
8.412	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots)	Binary
8.361	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
8.307	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
8.279	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
8.214	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
8.153	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
8.109	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
8.066	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
8.039	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
8.011	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
8.007	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
7.774	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
7.679	Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?	Binary
7.573	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.518	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti)	Continuous
7.492	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
7.458	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
7.437	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
7.398	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
7.397	In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?	Continuous
7.381	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
7.338	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
7.314	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.299	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
7.292	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
7.221	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
7.114	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
7.105	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
7.092	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
7.057	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
7.004	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
6.996	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
6.989	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
6.798	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
6.776	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
6.769	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
6.598	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.595	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
6.559	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
6.484	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
6.459	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
6.426	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
6.268	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
6.218	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
6.108	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
6.077	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
6.059	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.921	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
5.914	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.828	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
5.777	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
5.769	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
5.693	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.679	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
5.639	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
5.636	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
5.618	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
5.596	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.532	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
5.434	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
5.398	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
5.376	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
5.257	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
5.191	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
5.188	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.129	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
5.112	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.052	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
5.025	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
4.875	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
4.875	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
4.856	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
4.817	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
4.771	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
4.770	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
4.741	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
4.666	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
4.653	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
4.638	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
4.535	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
4.531	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
4.530	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
4.524	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
4.518	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
4.516	In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?	Continuous
4.504	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
4.404	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
4.398	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
4.376	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
4.370	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
4.267	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.201	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
4.043	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots)	Binary
4.018	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.969	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
3.939	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
3.916	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
3.878	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
3.846	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
3.806	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.712	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
3.684	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.670	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
3.609	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
3.548	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
3.522	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
3.490	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
3.489	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
3.388	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
3.362	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
3.352	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
3.331	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
3.322	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
3.321	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
3.319	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
3.259	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
3.181	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
3.175	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
3.171	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.117	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
3.115	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants)	Binary
3.104	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
3.089	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets)	Binary
3.079	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
3.013	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.961	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
2.929	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
2.897	Will Ukrainian military forces strike targets more than 10 kilometers inside Russian territory?	Continuous
2.893	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
2.880	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
2.879	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
2.850	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
2.825	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets)	Binary
2.813	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
2.721	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
2.654	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
2.640	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.630	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
2.624	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
2.621	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
2.580	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
2.535	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
2.500	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
2.458	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
2.440	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
2.390	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
2.339	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.293	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
2.273	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
2.262	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
2.255	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
2.235	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
2.230	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
2.228	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
2.155	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans)	Binary
2.120	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.107	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
2.095	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
2.077	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
2.054	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
2.019	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
1.804	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.801	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
1.758	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
1.661	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
1.643	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
1.589	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
1.586	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
1.549	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
1.548	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
1.474	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
1.356	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
1.318	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.229	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
1.207	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
1.205	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
1.171	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
1.136	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
1.118	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
0.923	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
0.886	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
0.879	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
0.878	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan)	Continuous
0.746	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.634	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
0.634	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
0.557	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
0.525	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
0.226	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.224	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
0.145	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.132	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.132	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.110	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.067	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.051	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
0.024	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.022	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.018	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-0.034	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
-0.070	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
-0.248	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-0.289	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-0.533	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-0.633	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-0.736	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
-0.976	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-0.993	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-1.006	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-1.027	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-1.211	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
-1.632	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-1.714	What percent of UK will have long-COVID (12 weeks after infection) on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
-1.941	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
-2.053	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-2.259	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-2.629	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-2.831	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
-3.124	What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2023)	Continuous
-3.348	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-3.656	In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?	Continuous
-4.606	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
-4.828	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka)	Continuous
-4.841	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
-4.933	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-5.648	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
-5.656	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-5.971	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
-6.274	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-6.694	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-6.850	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
-7.344	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
-7.367	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-7.532	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2023)	Continuous
-7.939	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
-8.487	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-8.569	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-9.453	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-10.233	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.018	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-11.404	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-11.688	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon)	Continuous
-11.857	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda)	Continuous
-12.065	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-12.326	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-12.560	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-13.002	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
-18.199	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
-19.176	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
-19.755	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
-20.857	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
-21.813	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
-21.863	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-22.567	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-22.618	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
-24.049	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
-25.320	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-26.204	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-26.570	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.604	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
-30.369	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
-30.632	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
-31.374	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
-31.467	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
-32.708	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
-39.151	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
-40.530	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
-41.760	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
-42.102	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
-42.635	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
-62.259	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
-62.894	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
-68.608	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous