citizen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.508	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.001	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
93.608	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
90.455	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
83.208	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
82.670	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
77.082	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
71.092	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
64.313	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
63.466	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
63.193	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
60.957	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
59.189	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
58.849	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
57.303	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
56.922	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
52.391	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
51.213	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
51.154	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
49.934	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
47.696	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
46.789	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
42.948	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
42.887	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
41.724	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
41.557	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
41.385	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
38.578	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
37.816	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
35.463	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
34.448	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
33.982	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
32.099	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
31.702	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
31.543	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
30.595	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
30.566	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
30.281	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
30.143	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
30.102	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
30.050	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
29.850	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
29.441	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
29.015	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
29.001	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.398	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
27.958	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
26.825	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
26.747	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
26.501	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
26.346	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
26.041	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
25.371	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
25.365	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
23.870	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
23.737	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
23.001	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
22.794	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
22.501	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
22.038	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
21.756	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
20.819	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
19.577	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
19.144	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
18.811	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
18.256	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
17.988	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
17.882	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.574	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
16.870	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
16.828	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
16.759	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
16.584	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
16.405	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
16.319	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.804	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
15.692	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
15.579	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
15.323	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
15.248	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
14.944	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
14.760	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
14.699	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
14.372	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
14.002	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
13.812	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
13.675	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
13.660	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
13.465	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
13.086	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
12.943	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
12.864	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
12.788	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
12.783	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
12.366	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
12.357	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
12.159	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
12.130	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
11.934	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
11.740	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
11.714	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
11.617	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
11.441	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
11.396	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
11.363	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
11.152	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
11.018	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
10.952	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
10.863	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.857	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.691	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
10.574	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
10.543	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
10.529	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
9.715	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
9.596	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
9.547	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
9.508	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
8.826	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
8.788	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.661	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
8.590	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
8.373	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
8.335	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.100	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
8.064	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
8.011	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.883	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
7.788	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.663	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
7.480	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
7.408	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
7.369	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
7.355	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.156	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
7.148	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.141	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.071	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
7.015	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
6.925	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
6.870	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
6.768	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
6.648	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.604	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
6.595	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
6.577	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
6.568	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.454	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
6.453	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
6.316	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
6.261	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
6.212	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
6.204	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
6.143	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
6.067	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.015	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.978	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
5.976	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
5.878	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
5.848	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.847	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
5.717	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
5.653	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
5.595	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
5.594	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
5.574	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
5.557	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.539	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
5.425	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
5.323	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.250	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
5.205	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
5.154	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
5.087	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
4.926	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
4.895	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.827	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.812	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
4.790	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
4.625	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
4.550	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
4.413	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
4.364	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
4.279	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.236	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
4.228	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
4.193	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
4.178	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
4.174	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.131	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.109	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
4.048	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
4.004	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
3.990	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
3.854	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
3.756	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
3.664	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
3.624	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.554	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
3.451	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.432	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
3.418	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
3.346	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
3.324	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
3.282	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.282	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
3.236	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.185	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
3.162	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
3.043	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
3.015	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
2.735	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
2.621	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
2.609	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
2.559	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
2.507	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
2.435	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
2.407	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
2.251	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.146	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
2.091	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
2.066	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
2.065	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
1.950	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
1.909	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
1.762	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
1.592	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
1.569	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
1.546	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
1.546	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
1.401	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.376	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
1.300	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
1.275	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
1.270	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.251	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
1.169	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
1.163	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
1.134	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
1.010	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
0.853	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.843	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
0.810	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.780	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
0.758	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
0.746	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
0.744	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.716	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.675	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.668	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
0.626	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.624	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
0.617	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.597	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.594	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.566	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.465	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.442	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
0.441	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
0.437	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.323	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
0.301	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
0.249	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.247	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.242	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
0.238	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
0.227	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.226	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.225	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.196	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.191	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.181	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
0.165	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.154	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
0.132	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
0.103	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.058	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
0.030	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.017	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
0.008	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
0.007	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
0.006	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
0.004	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
0.004	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
0.001	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
-0.010	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
-0.033	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
-0.051	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-0.077	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
-0.180	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-0.245	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
-0.246	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.297	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.325	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
-0.364	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
-0.427	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
-0.434	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
-0.488	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-0.497	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
-0.535	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
-0.600	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
-0.672	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
-0.703	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
-0.833	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
-1.032	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
-1.267	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
-1.301	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
-1.333	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
-1.432	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-1.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
-1.843	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-1.938	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
-1.940	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
-1.948	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
-1.953	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
-1.972	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.014	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
-2.161	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
-2.241	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
-2.488	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
-2.512	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.567	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-2.824	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
-2.865	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
-3.092	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
-3.475	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
-3.498	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
-4.004	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
-4.111	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
-4.369	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
-4.716	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.748	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
-5.056	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-5.286	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
-5.889	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
-6.410	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
-6.612	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
-6.784	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
-6.806	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-6.944	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
-7.002	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-7.517	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-9.965	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.101	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
-12.499	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
-13.454	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-16.530	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-19.878	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
-21.018	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-22.010	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-23.715	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
-25.246	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-26.333	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-28.623	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
-29.087	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
-31.766	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
-32.080	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
-35.329	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-37.991	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
-42.203	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
-42.470	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
-45.468	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-45.557	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-45.871	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-48.372	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-48.787	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
-50.154	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
-57.378	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
-68.799	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-142.063	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary