norick

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.118	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
69.727	What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
66.297	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
65.695	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
62.180	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
56.311	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
54.588	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2023)	Continuous
47.250	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
45.739	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
40.559	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
40.240	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
34.563	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
33.477	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
32.028	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
30.879	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
30.808	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
30.157	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
30.023	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
29.442	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
28.720	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
27.747	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
27.706	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
26.842	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
26.731	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
26.245	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
25.571	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
24.594	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
24.374	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
23.950	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
23.492	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.890	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
21.543	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
20.909	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
19.853	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
19.821	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
19.075	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
18.469	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
18.284	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
18.047	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
17.956	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
17.826	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
17.668	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
17.649	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
17.613	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
17.269	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
16.952	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
16.920	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
16.644	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
16.140	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
15.920	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
15.358	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
15.250	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.355	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
14.006	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
13.226	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
13.178	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
12.375	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
11.844	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
11.831	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.776	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
11.644	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
11.376	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
11.040	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
10.965	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.914	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
10.666	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
10.094	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
10.041	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
9.860	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
9.194	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
9.126	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
8.977	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
8.933	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
8.928	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
8.837	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
8.720	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
8.441	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
8.316	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
7.939	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
7.906	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
7.719	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
7.672	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.602	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
7.483	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.348	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
7.158	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
7.157	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
7.021	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.992	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.929	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.884	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
6.867	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
6.838	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
6.702	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
6.699	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
6.578	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
6.468	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
6.295	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
6.244	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
6.237	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
6.148	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
6.123	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.043	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
5.973	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
5.755	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
5.748	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
5.666	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.663	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
5.599	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
5.552	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
5.432	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
5.345	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
5.274	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
5.227	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
5.221	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
5.144	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
5.048	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
5.031	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.008	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
4.926	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
4.854	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
4.592	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
4.548	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
4.382	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
4.354	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
4.347	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
4.313	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
4.292	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
4.276	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.199	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
4.188	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
3.820	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.744	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
3.677	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
3.665	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.600	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.599	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
3.528	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.527	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
3.521	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
3.426	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
3.394	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.353	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.325	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
3.149	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
3.091	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
2.991	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
2.797	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
2.772	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
2.758	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
2.751	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
2.519	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
2.508	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
2.503	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
2.497	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
2.479	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
2.466	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
2.431	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
2.406	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
2.333	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
2.319	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
2.294	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.026	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
1.940	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
1.911	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
1.680	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
1.583	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.577	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.570	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
1.547	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
1.541	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
1.476	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
1.441	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
1.380	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
1.316	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
1.305	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.295	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
1.248	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
1.231	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
1.191	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
1.166	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
1.164	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
1.154	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
1.015	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
0.991	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.962	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
0.941	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
0.890	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
0.884	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.882	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.874	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
0.782	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
0.723	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
0.713	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
0.706	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.664	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.628	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
0.605	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.539	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
0.538	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.525	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
0.520	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
0.495	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
0.488	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.466	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.458	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
0.457	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.456	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.453	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.442	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.441	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
0.440	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.439	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.415	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.409	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.408	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.398	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
0.368	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
0.360	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.339	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.328	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.287	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.237	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.199	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
0.196	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.195	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
0.193	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.188	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
0.173	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
0.150	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.139	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
0.129	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.128	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.103	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.071	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
0.067	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
0.018	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.015	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.000	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
0.000	Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.067	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.078	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
-0.110	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
-0.125	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
-0.144	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.213	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-0.234	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
-0.248	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
-0.293	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-0.384	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
-0.403	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
-0.528	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-0.603	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
-0.657	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
-0.699	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.791	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
-0.793	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
-0.848	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
-0.851	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-0.871	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.923	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-0.983	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.043	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
-1.171	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
-1.294	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
-1.319	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.337	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
-1.508	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
-1.885	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
-1.911	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
-1.932	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
-2.061	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
-2.092	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
-2.158	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
-2.353	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
-2.491	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
-2.498	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.508	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.630	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-2.833	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
-3.225	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
-3.440	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
-3.752	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
-4.480	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
-4.621	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
-5.058	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
-5.605	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.714	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
-5.792	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
-5.920	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-6.190	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
-6.346	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
-6.555	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-6.665	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
-6.788	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
-7.020	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.725	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
-8.048	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-8.641	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-9.256	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
-9.339	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-9.786	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-10.466	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-11.899	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-12.620	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
-13.854	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
-21.707	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
-21.716	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-22.664	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-27.485	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-30.615	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-32.761	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-32.985	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-33.500	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-33.878	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-36.624	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-38.136	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
-43.648	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-72.516	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
-104.212	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
-119.585	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary