nextbigfuture

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3246	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.845	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
92.824	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
92.790	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
83.355	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
82.238	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
81.179	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
79.368	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
71.319	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
69.979	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
67.578	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
65.509	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
65.239	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
64.825	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
63.751	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
62.899	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
61.565	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
59.664	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
58.907	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
58.890	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
57.784	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
56.871	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
56.728	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
51.521	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
50.798	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
50.220	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
50.128	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
49.762	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
49.674	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
48.536	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
48.170	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
46.688	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
46.093	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
45.639	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
45.319	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
43.721	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
42.728	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
38.654	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
38.563	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
37.797	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
37.250	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
36.293	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
35.311	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
35.283	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
34.428	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
34.319	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
33.731	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
33.403	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
33.317	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
32.099	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
30.983	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
30.966	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
30.929	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
30.778	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
30.310	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
30.106	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
29.591	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
27.893	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
27.165	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
26.809	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
26.378	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
26.290	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
26.092	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
25.463	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
24.859	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
24.666	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
24.589	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
24.483	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
24.370	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
23.836	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
23.614	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
23.476	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
23.431	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
22.646	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
22.058	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
21.940	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
21.579	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
21.572	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
21.186	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
20.589	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
20.579	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
20.336	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
20.047	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
19.369	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
19.059	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
19.008	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
18.516	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
18.250	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
17.695	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
17.169	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
17.140	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
16.963	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
16.044	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
15.672	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
15.565	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
15.386	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
15.082	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
15.067	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
15.021	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
15.012	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
14.996	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
14.800	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
13.974	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
13.956	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
13.756	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
13.407	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
13.120	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
13.004	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
12.840	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
11.903	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
11.824	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
11.690	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
11.618	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
11.618	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
10.666	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
10.381	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
10.216	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
10.176	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
10.119	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
10.107	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
9.335	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
9.210	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
9.122	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
8.797	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
8.655	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
7.702	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
7.626	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.843	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
6.628	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
6.362	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
5.599	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
5.310	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
5.069	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
5.041	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
4.898	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
4.682	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
4.046	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
3.991	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
3.952	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
3.816	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
3.801	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
3.340	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
2.860	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
2.845	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
2.818	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
2.606	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
1.888	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
1.615	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
1.508	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
1.438	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
1.406	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.742	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.485	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
0.229	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
0.163	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
0.129	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
-0.096	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.216	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.265	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-0.530	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
-0.626	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-0.761	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-0.992	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-1.273	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-2.369	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
-2.743	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-4.257	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
-4.421	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.965	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-7.837	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-9.438	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-11.260	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-11.324	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-12.736	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-12.851	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-32.694	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-35.607	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-45.149	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-56.315	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-111.404	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-152.239	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-170.314	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-252.422	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary