| 94.951 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 93.441 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 90.089 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 90.050 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 89.409 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 86.553 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 86.269 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 84.671 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 84.593 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 84.516 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 83.724 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 83.611 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 83.245 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 82.846 | Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 82.661 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 82.036 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 81.935 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 81.808 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 81.504 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 81.309 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 80.415 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 78.785 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 78.699 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 78.543 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 78.497 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 78.304 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 78.245 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 77.480 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 77.423 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 77.009 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 76.715 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 76.477 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 76.102 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 75.285 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 75.242 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 75.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 75.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 75.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 74.141 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 73.111 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.042 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 71.722 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 70.960 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 70.714 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 70.512 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 70.410 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Burnley) | Continuous |
| 68.651 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 67.887 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 67.887 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 67.887 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 67.852 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 67.084 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 66.462 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 66.335 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Luton Town) | Continuous |
| 65.796 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 65.404 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 64.205 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 63.725 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 63.041 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 62.141 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 61.838 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 61.493 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 61.016 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 60.263 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 60.221 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 60.131 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 60.131 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 60.033 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.708 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 59.477 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 59.030 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 58.762 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 58.762 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 58.474 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 58.195 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 57.262 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 57.195 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.503 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 56.470 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 56.451 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 55.914 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 55.911 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 55.911 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 55.766 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 55.655 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 55.655 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 55.268 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 54.867 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 54.605 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 54.462 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 54.434 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 53.615 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 53.152 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 53.100 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 53.100 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 52.802 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 52.728 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 52.690 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 52.689 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 52.411 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 52.391 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 51.157 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 51.157 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 50.985 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 49.574 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 48.766 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 48.739 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 47.105 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 46.952 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 46.881 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 46.184 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 45.064 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 44.788 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 44.252 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 44.121 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 43.955 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 43.477 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 43.330 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 42.895 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 42.805 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 40.392 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 39.911 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 39.737 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 39.358 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 39.264 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 37.419 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Sheffield United) | Continuous |
| 36.522 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 36.398 | How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 36.140 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 35.795 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 35.557 | What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.305 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 34.188 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 34.153 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 34.009 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 33.908 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 32.779 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 32.727 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 32.720 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 32.614 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 32.578 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 32.374 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.374 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.373 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.373 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.372 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.371 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.371 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.371 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.370 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.369 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.272 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 32.235 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 31.775 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 31.581 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 30.913 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.817 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 30.023 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 29.836 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 29.577 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 29.014 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 28.670 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 28.661 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 27.984 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 27.770 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.482 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 26.267 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 26.192 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 25.931 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 25.456 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 24.692 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 24.584 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 24.239 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 23.475 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 23.165 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 23.029 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 22.991 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 22.991 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 22.904 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 22.822 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 22.435 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 22.061 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 22.041 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 21.948 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 21.811 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.722 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 21.051 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 21.039 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 21.023 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 20.796 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 20.711 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 20.278 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 20.233 | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 19.993 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 19.527 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 19.504 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 19.504 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 19.504 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 19.274 | What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025? | Continuous |
| 19.062 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 19.028 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 18.208 | COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 18.002 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 17.615 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 17.138 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 16.991 | How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 16.907 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 16.517 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 15.944 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.656 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Dec-23) | Continuous |
| 15.639 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 15.396 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.196 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.626 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 14.601 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 14.414 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 14.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 14.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 14.087 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 14.087 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 14.087 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 14.087 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 13.886 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 13.886 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 13.876 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 13.742 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.647 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
| 13.525 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 13.407 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.172 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 13.063 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 13.063 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 13.037 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 13.023 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 12.372 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.054 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 11.656 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 11.325 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 11.150 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 11.116 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.312 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 10.179 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 10.179 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 9.260 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 9.260 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 9.260 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 9.188 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 9.152 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 9.037 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.682 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.659 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 8.582 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.190 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 7.966 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 7.932 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 7.924 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 7.924 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 7.635 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.635 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.635 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.552 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 7.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 7.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 7.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.069 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 6.846 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 6.521 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 6.436 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 6.379 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 6.316 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 6.118 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 5.929 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 5.657 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 5.560 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 5.345 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| 5.265 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 5.116 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 4.675 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 4.610 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 4.529 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 4.097 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 3.336 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 2.989 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 2.373 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 2.305 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 2.153 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-24) | Continuous |
| 2.085 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 2.031 | How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.742 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| 1.533 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 1.495 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| 1.420 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 1.283 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 1.119 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 1.118 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 1.087 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 1.045 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.027 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 1.012 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.005 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 0.991 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 0.987 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 0.970 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.922 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.922 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.912 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.912 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.912 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.910 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.910 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.901 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q4 (ends Dec 2024)) | Continuous |
| 0.900 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.849 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.832 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.814 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.813 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 0.804 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.804 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.791 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.785 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.784 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.782 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.743 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.742 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 0.736 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.732 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.721 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.660 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.635 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.616 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.609 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 0.591 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.584 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.567 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.431 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| 0.354 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens) | Continuous |
| 0.348 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun) | Binary |
| 0.346 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.295 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 0.223 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| - | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| - | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| - | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| - | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| - | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| -0.000 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty) | Binary |
| -0.149 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context)) | Continuous |
| -0.287 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| -0.573 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -0.785 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -1.334 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -1.622 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context)) | Continuous |
| -1.655 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -1.761 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -1.761 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -2.935 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-24) | Continuous |
| -3.167 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -3.702 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -6.650 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -8.019 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -8.972 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -9.602 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -9.744 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -12.230 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -13.683 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -16.214 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -21.591 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -21.679 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -21.739 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| -24.259 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -24.950 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -49.629 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -49.765 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -59.155 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -61.370 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| -67.527 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -69.876 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -84.842 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -88.124 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| -91.037 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -92.133 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -102.882 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -123.435 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -124.899 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| -187.013 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -205.905 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -374.676 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |