kjz

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5616	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
110.265	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
107.456	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
98.717	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
97.294	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
96.919	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
96.749	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
94.692	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
93.367	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
92.986	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
92.409	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
92.290	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
92.097	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
91.893	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
90.830	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
90.336	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
88.675	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
88.283	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
88.218	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
87.428	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
86.990	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
86.792	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
86.666	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
86.363	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
86.214	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
85.892	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
85.403	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
85.241	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
84.770	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
84.587	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
84.564	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
83.966	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
83.478	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
83.272	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
82.531	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
82.467	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
82.383	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
82.229	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
81.498	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
80.888	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
80.721	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
78.707	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
78.189	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
77.581	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
77.215	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
77.196	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
75.930	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
75.166	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
74.725	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
74.656	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
73.620	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
72.223	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
70.544	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
70.200	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
70.195	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
68.053	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
67.929	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
67.912	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
67.016	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
63.869	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
63.340	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
62.570	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
61.745	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
61.171	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
60.187	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
60.001	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
59.907	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
59.624	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
59.007	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
58.374	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
58.138	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
57.750	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
56.441	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
54.973	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
54.803	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
54.380	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
52.661	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
52.277	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
52.076	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
51.724	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
51.719	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
51.589	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
51.556	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
49.533	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
49.529	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
49.040	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
48.574	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
47.589	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
46.580	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
46.137	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
45.972	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
44.454	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
44.194	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
44.112	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
43.360	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
42.705	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
42.032	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
41.810	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
41.251	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
39.317	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
38.484	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
37.709	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
37.249	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
36.505	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
36.156	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
35.563	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
35.349	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
34.781	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
33.300	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
32.117	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
31.431	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
29.647	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
28.270	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
28.093	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
25.926	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
25.634	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
24.929	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
24.606	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
22.662	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.562	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
20.771	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
20.494	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
17.627	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
16.751	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
16.609	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
16.192	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
15.072	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
14.491	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
13.319	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
12.614	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
11.816	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
11.623	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
10.215	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
7.272	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
7.046	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
5.507	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
5.471	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
5.261	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
5.010	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
4.892	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
4.556	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
4.020	Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?	Binary
3.269	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
1.397	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
0.872	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
0.870	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-0.284	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-0.287	Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-0.994	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
-2.204	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
-3.705	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-4.449	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-4.833	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
-7.311	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
-8.083	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-9.433	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
-10.236	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-10.425	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
-10.964	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-11.405	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
-13.648	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-17.339	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
-24.042	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-24.209	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
-25.098	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-25.683	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-27.165	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-30.184	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-30.754	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
-32.724	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-35.121	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-38.530	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-38.783	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-38.867	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-39.780	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-41.898	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-54.653	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-58.019	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-80.902	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-93.398	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-104.672	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-111.853	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-113.854	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-121.398	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-127.345	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-277.920	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-484.567	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary