Sergio

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5759	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
151.075	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
140.682	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
131.007	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
126.299	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
115.472	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
115.035	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
111.209	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
107.318	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
106.869	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
106.120	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
104.253	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
104.182	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
101.143	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
98.639	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
96.331	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
95.507	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
95.445	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
95.192	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
94.795	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
92.365	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
90.821	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
90.328	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
90.184	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
89.554	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
86.839	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
86.340	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
84.634	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
84.302	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
83.503	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
83.490	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
83.397	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
77.995	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
77.559	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
77.244	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
77.054	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
75.277	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
74.198	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
73.880	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
72.959	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
72.955	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
72.841	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
72.722	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
72.720	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
70.556	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
70.326	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
70.183	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
67.985	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
67.930	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
66.715	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
65.284	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
64.452	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
64.101	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
64.049	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
61.616	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
59.720	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
59.714	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
59.581	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
57.791	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
57.116	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
54.976	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
53.076	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
52.140	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
50.862	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
50.051	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
48.595	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
47.469	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
46.198	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
45.937	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
45.534	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
44.688	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
41.510	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
41.484	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
41.063	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
40.972	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
40.390	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
40.148	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
39.078	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
38.934	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
38.730	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
38.259	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
37.940	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
37.847	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
36.063	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
34.311	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
34.127	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
33.493	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
31.213	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
30.974	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
27.722	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
27.428	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
27.425	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
26.411	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
26.322	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
25.687	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
25.364	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
24.654	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
23.670	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
21.813	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
21.746	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
21.586	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
21.396	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
20.967	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
20.233	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
19.853	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
19.793	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
19.203	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
18.501	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
17.625	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
16.803	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
14.306	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
12.892	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
11.781	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
10.854	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
10.583	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
10.376	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
10.341	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
10.142	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.661	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
7.468	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
7.409	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
7.126	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
6.683	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
6.350	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
5.485	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
4.744	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
4.543	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
4.295	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
2.904	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
2.435	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
2.333	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
2.060	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
1.742	Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?	Binary
1.305	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.259	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
1.076	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
0.332	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.145	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-0.153	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-0.526	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-0.894	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
-1.438	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
-2.549	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-3.115	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
-6.329	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-7.928	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-9.469	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-10.304	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-11.532	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-19.397	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-22.147	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-24.640	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-28.647	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-32.610	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-36.522	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-39.119	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-46.262	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-51.841	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-63.658	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-70.395	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-71.664	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-72.334	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
-73.028	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-77.006	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-85.860	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-131.355	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-165.933	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous