131.862 | How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025? | Continuous |
131.747 | What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025? | Continuous |
96.902 | Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada? | Multiple Choice |
95.269 | Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
93.957 | What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025? | Continuous |
92.109 | What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)? | Continuous |
89.199 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025? | Continuous |
88.114 | Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025? | Binary |
87.469 | Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
85.913 | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | Binary |
85.805 | Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%? | Binary |
84.927 | Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
82.861 | Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025? | Binary |
82.478 | What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025? | Continuous |
80.911 | Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025? | Binary |
80.285 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? | Binary |
79.918 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025) | Continuous |
76.853 | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | Continuous |
76.272 | Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025? | Binary |
75.368 | Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
75.325 | What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale? | Continuous |
75.093 | How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025? | Continuous |
72.293 | What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units? | Continuous |
71.268 | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
68.453 | Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
65.628 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | Binary |
63.911 | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
62.911 | Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
61.182 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World) | Continuous |
60.732 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025) | Continuous |
60.152 | What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025? | Continuous |
60.102 | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
60.011 | How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
59.756 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
58.694 | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
58.654 | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
57.911 | Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025? | Binary |
56.052 | What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025? | Continuous |
54.664 | What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
54.534 | What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
54.118 | How many parties will be in the next German parliament? | Multiple Choice |
53.467 | What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025? | Continuous |
53.218 | What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025? | Continuous |
51.541 | Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025? | Binary |
51.526 | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD) | Continuous |
51.015 | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
49.079 | How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025? | Continuous |
46.262 | Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025? | Binary |
45.624 | How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session? | Continuous |
44.768 | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025) | Continuous |
43.361 | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
41.173 | What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
40.631 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025? | Continuous |
39.464 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
38.034 | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN) | Continuous |
37.023 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
33.509 | By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup? | Multiple Choice |
31.370 | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
27.386 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | Continuous |
27.048 | What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
23.535 | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
21.062 | How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week? | Multiple Choice |
19.806 | Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025? | Binary |
19.707 | Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from? | Multiple Choice |
16.299 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | Continuous |
13.743 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)) | Binary |
13.506 | How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025? | Continuous |
13.430 | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
12.880 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)) | Binary |
11.542 | Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313? | Multiple Choice |
10.463 | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
9.482 | What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025? | Continuous |
9.471 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? | Binary |
8.510 | What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025? | Continuous |
8.046 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey) | Continuous |
4.492 | Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place? | Binary |
3.938 | What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament? | Multiple Choice |
3.410 | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |
2.957 | Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025? | Binary |
2.141 | Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
1.939 | [Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have? | Continuous |
1.894 | Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
1.348 | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
1.292 | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
0.691 | What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
0.442 | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
0.384 | Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
-1.928 | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
-2.376 | Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting? | Multiple Choice |
-2.472 | What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025? | Continuous |
-4.357 | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
-6.781 | What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter? | Continuous |
-7.706 | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
-10.172 | Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships? | Binary |
-15.432 | When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-16.901 | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights) | Continuous |
-17.079 | Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025? | Binary |
-17.350 | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
-20.318 | What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025? | Continuous |
-27.775 | What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025? | Continuous |
-28.779 | What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
-33.330 | What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025? | Continuous |
-35.685 | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025? | Continuous |
-37.934 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
-38.922 | How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-64.555 | What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025? | Continuous |
-75.882 | What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025? | Continuous |
-78.169 | What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
-85.331 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-133.299 | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
-435.524 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print)) | Binary |