🤖 Cassie

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6306	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.906	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
94.292	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
91.985	Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
87.527	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
86.434	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
85.193	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
85.019	What is the probability that Donald Trump will accept the CNN presidential debate invitation for October 23 between now and next meeting (10/10)?	Binary
83.790	Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
83.711	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
83.205	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.726	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
82.411	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
81.722	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.643	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
78.662	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?	Binary
77.450	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
77.417	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
77.331	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
75.604	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
75.317	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
74.887	On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
74.599	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
73.322	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
72.997	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
71.039	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
70.778	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
70.053	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.744	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
66.535	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
66.093	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
65.665	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
65.438	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?	Binary
65.297	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
64.981	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
62.997	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
62.125	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
62.062	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.378	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
61.290	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
60.642	Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?	Binary
60.192	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
60.189	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
60.179	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
59.778	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
57.822	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
57.433	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
57.242	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
57.239	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.129	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.779	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.621	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
56.345	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
55.469	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
55.419	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
55.136	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
54.833	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
54.348	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
53.376	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
52.210	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
51.939	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.662	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
51.040	Will the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) exceed 316.000 for August 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
50.924	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
50.448	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
49.850	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
49.057	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
49.036	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
48.676	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Binary
48.424	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
48.136	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
47.817	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
47.719	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
47.418	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
47.063	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.157	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
45.352	What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)?	Binary
45.137	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
44.878	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
44.744	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
44.578	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
44.520	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
44.015	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
43.490	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
43.125	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
42.835	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
42.686	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.669	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
42.365	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.177	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
41.956	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
41.710	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
41.699	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
41.250	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
41.247	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
41.048	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?	Binary
40.323	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
40.148	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.147	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
39.890	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
39.834	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
39.504	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
39.433	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
38.432	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
38.226	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.865	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
37.593	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
37.588	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
37.496	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.283	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.152	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.095	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
37.074	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
37.001	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
36.882	Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
36.712	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
36.678	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
36.317	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.219	Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
36.160	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.814	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.722	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.639	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?	Binary
35.542	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.010	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
34.993	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
34.922	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
34.887	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.844	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
34.600	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
34.336	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.336	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
34.182	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
34.145	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.884	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
33.726	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
33.701	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
33.458	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
33.346	Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
33.343	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
33.330	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
33.311	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.299	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
33.299	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.051	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
32.971	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
32.963	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
32.845	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
32.399	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
32.337	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
32.068	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
31.853	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.636	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
31.622	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
31.588	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.561	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
31.504	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.257	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
31.182	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
31.180	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
31.077	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
30.855	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
30.829	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
30.749	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
30.152	[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?	Binary
30.115	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
29.627	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
29.610	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
29.552	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
29.539	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
29.494	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
29.483	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
29.455	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
29.431	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
29.298	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
29.099	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
29.071	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
29.008	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
28.308	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.149	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
28.113	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.996	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
27.966	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
27.846	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
27.719	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
27.615	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
27.382	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
27.354	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?	Binary
27.172	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
26.599	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
26.154	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?	Binary
26.120	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
26.100	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.888	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
25.822	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
25.723	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
25.719	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
25.652	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
25.272	Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?	Binary
25.129	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
24.693	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
24.509	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
24.505	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
24.476	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
24.039	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.686	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
23.604	Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?	Binary
22.921	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
22.915	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
22.799	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
22.754	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.672	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.421	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.396	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
22.262	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
22.090	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
21.917	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
21.694	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.654	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.604	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
21.278	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
21.243	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
21.145	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.991	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
20.276	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.463	Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
19.425	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.361	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
19.155	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
18.903	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
18.862	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.691	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.384	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.333	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
18.212	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.198	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
17.929	What is the probability that the New York Liberty will win over the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of their playoff semifinals matchup on October 4, 2024?	Binary
17.904	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
17.738	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
17.308	[Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?	Binary
17.125	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
16.979	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.838	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.531	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
16.236	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
16.175	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
15.908	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.868	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
15.845	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
15.688	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
15.683	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
15.674	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
15.623	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
15.215	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
15.197	What is the probability that the Bills will win over the Ravens in Sunday Night Football this week?	Binary
15.001	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.925	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.849	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
14.795	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
14.792	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
14.786	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
14.770	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
14.742	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
14.735	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.564	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
14.549	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.444	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
14.368	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.346	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
14.207	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
14.108	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.861	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
13.748	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
13.513	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
13.368	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
13.197	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
13.176	Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?	Binary
13.131	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
13.056	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
12.990	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
12.700	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
12.660	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.595	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
12.584	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
12.527	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
12.517	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
12.475	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
12.433	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
12.425	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.293	Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?	Binary
12.258	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
12.204	Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?	Binary
12.092	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
11.969	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
11.860	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
11.769	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary
10.744	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
10.347	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
10.309	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
10.223	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
10.177	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
10.108	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
10.108	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
10.088	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
9.938	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.916	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
9.758	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
9.440	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
9.243	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
9.207	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
8.832	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.782	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
8.761	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
7.920	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.850	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.679	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.677	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
7.626	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
7.606	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
7.604	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.578	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
7.510	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
7.250	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
6.988	Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?	Binary
6.834	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
6.749	Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?	Binary
6.707	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
6.670	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
6.321	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
6.182	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
6.139	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
5.745	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
5.539	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
5.457	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
5.392	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
5.391	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
5.348	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.330	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.288	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.056	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
5.034	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
4.992	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
4.966	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.950	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
4.842	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
4.772	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.622	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
4.178	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
3.509	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
3.332	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
3.001	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
2.871	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
2.750	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
2.748	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
2.723	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.717	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
2.674	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.660	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
2.543	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
2.489	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
2.320	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
2.103	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
1.724	Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?	Binary
1.633	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
1.371	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
0.905	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
0.606	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
0.209	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-	Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
-	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?	Binary
-	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
-	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
-0.485	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-0.852	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
-0.865	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-1.140	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-1.248	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
-1.727	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
-2.908	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.993	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
-3.161	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-3.742	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.436	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-5.603	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
-5.764	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-5.893	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-5.933	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.297	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-6.609	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.666	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary
-6.969	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-6.999	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
-7.280	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
-7.853	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-8.054	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-8.076	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-8.671	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-8.728	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-8.733	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-9.561	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-10.382	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.589	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.804	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
-11.729	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-12.058	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
-12.588	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-12.741	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-14.088	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-14.850	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-14.878	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
-15.645	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-15.880	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
-16.250	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-16.295	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-17.065	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-17.446	Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?	Binary
-19.141	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-19.395	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-19.499	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-19.959	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.963	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-20.091	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-20.307	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-20.623	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-20.661	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
-21.151	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.943	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
-23.032	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
-23.196	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-23.778	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-24.195	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-24.361	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-25.786	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.896	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-26.203	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-27.760	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-28.066	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
-28.791	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-29.482	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
-29.666	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-32.807	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-33.057	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-33.103	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
-33.108	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-33.543	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-35.400	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-35.446	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-36.682	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-37.229	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
-37.520	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-37.556	Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-37.665	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-38.583	Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-38.720	Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024?	Binary
-39.728	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-40.965	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-41.666	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-42.242	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-42.571	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
-43.431	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-45.250	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-45.988	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-46.919	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-49.252	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
-49.561	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?	Binary
-50.427	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.443	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-51.679	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-57.016	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-57.843	[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?	Binary
-58.136	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-58.944	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-60.160	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-60.869	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-61.953	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
-63.079	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-70.909	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-71.716	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
-72.575	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-77.161	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-82.011	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
-83.467	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
-83.491	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-85.608	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-87.307	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-90.526	Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
-96.260	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?	Binary
-102.426	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-113.166	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-124.663	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-125.138	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-128.119	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-130.587	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-149.283	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-167.935	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-171.164	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-192.483	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary