epicurious

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3852	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.108	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
92.655	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
92.603	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
91.315	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
89.591	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
89.273	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
88.789	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
88.019	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
86.785	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
85.698	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
85.607	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
83.369	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
81.334	How many confirmed mpox cases for the following years (2025+)? (2025)	Continuous
80.994	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
80.421	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
80.085	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
79.780	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
78.330	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
77.815	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
76.578	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
76.289	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
75.905	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
75.811	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
75.339	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
73.236	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
71.345	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
70.303	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
69.353	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
66.948	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
66.048	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
65.343	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
64.647	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
64.611	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
63.821	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
63.733	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
62.776	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
61.550	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
60.410	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
60.216	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
59.965	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
59.949	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
59.535	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
57.667	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
56.646	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
56.601	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
55.585	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
55.141	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
54.991	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
54.253	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
54.053	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
52.458	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
50.126	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
49.909	When will the 2025 Australian Federal election be held?	Continuous
49.313	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
45.844	How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?	Multiple Choice
45.682	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
45.475	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
44.267	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
43.713	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
43.437	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
43.365	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
43.339	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
41.997	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
40.685	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
40.459	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
39.282	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
36.862	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
36.741	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
36.423	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
35.807	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
35.759	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
34.099	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
34.055	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
33.818	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
33.355	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.172	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
32.912	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
32.793	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
31.121	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
30.804	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
30.614	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
30.525	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
29.664	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
28.624	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
27.067	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
26.633	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
26.589	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
25.524	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
24.378	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
23.908	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
23.096	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
22.999	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
22.283	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
22.131	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
21.666	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
21.344	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
20.903	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
20.870	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
19.907	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
17.809	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
17.589	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
17.529	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
17.285	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
16.794	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
16.254	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
15.638	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
15.599	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
15.368	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
14.584	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
14.116	How many days of snow will New York City see between December 11, 2025 and January 10, 2026?	Multiple Choice
13.111	What will be the global year-over-year change in seated diners reported by OpenTable for the week ending January 1, 2026?	Continuous
12.951	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
12.474	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.988	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
11.017	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
10.694	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
8.493	What will be the total domestic box office in the US & Canada during 2025?	Continuous
8.069	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
7.487	Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?	Binary
7.427	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
5.451	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
4.193	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
3.967	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
3.486	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
1.228	Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?	Binary
1.003	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
0.250	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
0.093	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
-0.215	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
-0.896	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
-0.919	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-2.905	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-2.991	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-4.920	Will the US unemployment rate for December 2025 be higher than November 2025?	Binary
-7.562	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-14.856	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-16.019	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-16.130	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
-16.939	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-19.664	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-22.182	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-23.177	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-23.281	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-26.201	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-26.832	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-34.942	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
-35.118	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
-37.863	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-40.260	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-42.119	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-42.121	How many new energy vehicle sales will BYD report for December 2025?	Continuous
-58.468	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-59.071	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
-60.837	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-69.234	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-77.852	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-81.650	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-88.743	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-96.846	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-226.742	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-377.325	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary