| 210.319 | What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 124.499 | How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023? | Continuous |
| 92.215 | How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024? | Continuous |
| 68.597 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| 66.261 | How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.442 | What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be? | Continuous |
| 63.213 | What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.229 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023) | Continuous |
| 57.428 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
| 54.219 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 52.930 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
| 49.398 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023) | Continuous |
| 44.416 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.707 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
| 40.690 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection? | Binary |
| 40.382 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
| 38.801 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 38.313 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 36.684 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
| 36.558 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.292 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
| 36.037 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
| 35.501 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 34.677 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
| 34.644 | When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude? | Continuous |
| 34.409 | What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
| 34.315 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
| 33.465 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023) | Continuous |
| 32.669 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 31.602 | Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft? | Continuous |
| 30.781 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 30.279 | Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 30.065 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
| 29.961 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
| 29.837 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 29.709 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 29.250 | How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing? | Continuous |
| 29.012 | Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021? | Binary |
| 28.909 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia) | Continuous |
| 28.637 | What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024? | Continuous |
| 28.412 | What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022? | Continuous |
| 28.183 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 28.128 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 27.001 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti) | Binary |
| 26.664 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
| 26.575 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 26.468 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
| 25.129 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 24.188 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 23.923 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
| 23.912 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 23.441 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.163 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| 22.908 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
| 22.547 | How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024? | Continuous |
| 21.667 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
| 21.501 | Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024? | Binary |
| 21.466 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 21.410 | What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023? | Continuous |
| 21.313 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
| 21.044 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.602 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 20.457 | Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.432 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
| 19.556 | When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day? | Continuous |
| 19.386 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 19.364 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
| 19.191 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 19.181 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 19.163 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 19.008 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
| 18.993 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 18.986 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
| 18.935 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 18.682 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 18.665 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
| 18.567 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 18.448 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan) | Continuous |
| 18.401 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 18.364 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 18.299 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
| 17.997 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
| 17.910 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
| 17.679 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
| 17.462 | When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions? | Continuous |
| 17.432 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.395 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
| 17.232 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
| 17.117 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
| 16.868 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 16.709 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 16.660 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
| 16.518 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.319 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
| 16.313 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.156 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 16.020 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 16.017 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| 15.831 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.765 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.721 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.580 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 15.511 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 15.457 | How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022? | Continuous |
| 15.380 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 15.249 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
| 15.059 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.033 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
| 14.819 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 14.773 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 14.712 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
| 14.642 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.631 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
| 14.423 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 14.282 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
| 14.035 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.803 | What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics? | Continuous |
| 13.730 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
| 13.686 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
| 13.675 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 13.658 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
| 13.520 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 13.386 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
| 13.379 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 13.323 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.315 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 13.224 | Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? | Binary |
| 13.105 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
| 13.083 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
| 12.864 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 12.852 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 12.678 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
| 12.671 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 12.656 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
| 12.611 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
| 12.516 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
| 12.225 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 12.149 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
| 12.007 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 11.953 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 11.546 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 11.290 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 11.277 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 11.214 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 10.970 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| 10.682 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
| 10.390 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 10.363 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.248 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
| 10.245 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
| 10.207 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 10.110 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
| 10.026 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 9.939 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 9.872 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
| 9.863 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
| 9.853 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
| 9.825 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
| 9.778 | How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
| 9.692 | Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election? | Binary |
| 9.562 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
| 9.345 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 9.204 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 9.144 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
| 9.088 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 9.025 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| 8.991 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
| 8.940 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.887 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 8.881 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 8.803 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.741 | Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024? | Binary |
| 8.607 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
| 8.510 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
| 8.237 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 8.196 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 8.189 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
| 8.024 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
| 7.979 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.964 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
| 7.868 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 7.848 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 7.839 | How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024? | Continuous |
| 7.811 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
| 7.765 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 7.714 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
| 7.700 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| 7.633 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
| 7.516 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline) | Binary |
| 7.487 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 7.441 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
| 7.367 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 7.255 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
| 7.150 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.894 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.887 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 6.884 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2) | Continuous |
| 6.863 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 6.774 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 6.598 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.589 | When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA? | Continuous |
| 6.444 | How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.409 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy) | Binary |
| 6.353 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| 6.340 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
| 6.295 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
| 6.236 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.224 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.127 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.116 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
| 6.094 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 6.085 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.074 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
| 6.056 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| 5.998 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
| 5.856 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 5.825 | How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)? | Continuous |
| 5.747 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
| 5.740 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 5.721 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
| 5.671 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
| 5.614 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| 5.579 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 5.531 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
| 5.530 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor? | Continuous |
| 5.451 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
| 5.427 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
| 5.426 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
| 5.361 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
| 5.322 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
| 5.296 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 5.274 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
| 5.252 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.233 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
| 5.222 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking) | Binary |
| 5.179 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
| 5.173 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
| 5.114 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 5.074 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 5.050 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
| 5.020 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.909 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
| 4.884 | What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 4.867 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 4.843 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
| 4.839 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 4.788 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
| 4.784 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
| 4.772 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
| 4.762 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
| 4.701 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment) | Binary |
| 4.694 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
| 4.656 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 4.654 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| 4.619 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
| 4.609 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23) | Continuous |
| 4.440 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 4.438 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 4.261 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
| 4.243 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 4.087 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
| 4.084 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
| 4.035 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 4.030 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 3.986 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
| 3.942 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
| 3.820 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 3.814 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 3.774 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
| 3.695 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 3.684 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
| 3.658 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 3.550 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 3.543 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 3.522 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
| 3.482 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
| 3.337 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 3.307 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 3.271 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 3.240 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
| 3.170 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
| 3.102 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 3.100 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 3.093 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 3.043 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 3.041 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 3.018 | Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public) | Binary |
| 3.001 | In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell? | Continuous |
| 2.975 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 2.944 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 2.892 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Continuous |
| 2.856 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
| 2.835 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 2.832 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 2.831 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.808 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 2.796 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.667 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
| 2.615 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
| 2.613 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 2.605 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 2.587 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
| 2.498 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation) | Binary |
| 2.391 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.383 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
| 2.359 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
| 2.328 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
| 2.282 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
| 2.183 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.180 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
| 2.146 | What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.138 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| 2.095 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 2.003 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
| 1.986 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23) | Continuous |
| 1.969 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 1.847 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 1.831 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| 1.774 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 1.728 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| 1.659 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 1.550 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.514 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 1.448 | How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.160 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 1.147 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23) | Continuous |
| 1.096 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
| 0.988 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
| 0.911 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
| 0.711 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
| 0.592 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23) | Continuous |
| 0.466 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti) | Continuous |
| 0.375 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| 0.337 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
| 0.310 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 0.193 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
| 0.131 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23) | Continuous |
| 0.098 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
| 0.045 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
| 0.028 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
| 0.016 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
| 0.015 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
| 0.012 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
| 0.007 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
| -0.025 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
| -0.204 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
| -0.295 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -0.353 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
| -0.489 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -0.675 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
| -0.821 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
| -0.856 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
| -1.005 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -2.007 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -2.192 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -2.392 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23) | Continuous |
| -2.397 | Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023? | Binary |
| -2.443 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan) | Continuous |
| -2.517 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| -2.550 | How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -2.597 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| -3.102 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda) | Continuous |
| -4.176 | Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022? | Binary |
| -4.232 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka) | Continuous |
| -4.342 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| -5.510 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| -5.794 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
| -5.959 | What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| -6.252 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
| -6.274 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
| -7.390 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
| -7.642 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -7.719 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
| -7.807 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| -7.859 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
| -8.298 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon) | Continuous |
| -9.278 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
| -9.876 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| -9.964 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
| -10.218 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
| -10.334 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| -10.403 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -10.749 | Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report? | Binary |
| -11.049 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
| -11.220 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Continuous |
| -11.300 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| -11.493 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| -13.561 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
| -13.698 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| -13.985 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| -14.227 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Binary |
| -14.340 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
| -16.370 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
| -16.493 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| -17.619 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
| -18.234 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
| -18.837 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23) | Continuous |
| -19.471 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024? | Binary |
| -19.765 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
| -20.535 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
| -21.739 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -22.675 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| -24.262 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
| -25.215 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
| -25.530 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -27.089 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
| -29.843 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| -35.469 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -37.137 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| -39.421 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| -44.069 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| -44.190 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| -44.350 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
| -45.601 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
| -47.154 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
| -47.748 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -56.309 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
| -61.093 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
| -95.243 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| -121.447 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |