| 98.960 | 96.9% | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | Continuous |
| 90.156 | 95.0% | Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024? | Binary |
| 86.521 | 97.9% | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 76.759 | 98.1% | What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026? | Continuous |
| 76.385 | 98.0% | Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025? | Binary |
| 76.025 | 98.0% | On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
| 69.854 | 99.9% | Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026? | Binary |
| 69.779 | 99.9% | Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313? | Multiple Choice |
| 69.517 | 99.3% | How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 65.241 | 99.7% | Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025? | Binary |
| 61.699 | 97.8% | Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 61.363 | 98.6% | How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 59.086 | 99.9% | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
| 57.219 | 100.0% | Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 55.214 | 99.7% | On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025? | Continuous |
| 55.180 | 97.0% | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
| 54.501 | 96.7% | What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 52.777 | 99.8% | Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025? | Binary |
| 52.507 | 99.1% | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
| 51.210 | 99.0% | In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released? | Multiple Choice |
| 50.471 | 96.1% | What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 49.854 | 99.9% | What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Continuous |
| 47.194 | 99.2% | Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season? | Multiple Choice |
| 45.637 | 78.3% | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
| 44.310 | 99.4% | What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 43.765 | 98.1% | How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025? | Continuous |
| 43.441 | 99.7% | What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025? | Continuous |
| 42.132 | 98.5% | How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025? | Continuous |
| 41.413 | 97.8% | What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025? | Continuous |
| 41.367 | 99.8% | Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025? | Binary |
| 41.173 | 98.6% | Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships? | Binary |
| 40.901 | 99.8% | How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025? | Continuous |
| 40.336 | 99.1% | How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 40.099 | 100.0% | How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session? | Continuous |
| 39.443 | 99.5% | Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 39.271 | 73.2% | How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026? | Continuous |
| 39.223 | 99.8% | Who will win the Texas 18th district special election? | Multiple Choice |
| 38.296 | 99.7% | Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 36.642 | 99.4% | Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025? | Binary |
| 35.718 | 98.0% | Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.314 | 99.8% | What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025? | Continuous |
| 33.660 | 98.0% | Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026? | Binary |
| 33.337 | 100.0% | What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men) | Continuous |
| 32.716 | 99.9% | Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant? | Binary |
| 32.684 | 95.7% | Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.304 | 98.8% | Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.057 | 97.6% | What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
| 31.774 | 99.9% | When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed? | Continuous |
| 31.436 | 93.0% | Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025? | Binary |
| 31.333 | 99.0% | How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025? | Continuous |
| 31.321 | 99.5% | What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season? | Continuous |
| 30.621 | 98.1% | Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025? | Binary |
| 30.406 | 98.5% | [Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025? | Continuous |
| 30.378 | 98.9% | Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win? | Multiple Choice |
| 29.761 | 99.8% | Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026? | Binary |
| 29.094 | 99.6% | Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026? | Binary |
| 28.859 | 99.9% | How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 28.326 | 98.6% | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 27.920 | 96.9% | Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025? | Binary |
| 27.594 | 100.0% | Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September? | Binary |
| 27.590 | 99.8% | Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 27.579 | 98.1% | Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 27.306 | 99.4% | Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025? | Binary |
| 27.157 | 98.6% | When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine? | Continuous |
| 27.059 | 99.9% | How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series? | Continuous |
| 26.458 | 99.7% | What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 25.781 | 100.0% | Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026? | Binary |
| 25.199 | 97.3% | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |
| 24.959 | 99.8% | How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025? | Continuous |
| 24.390 | 96.6% | Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024? | Binary |
| 24.288 | 99.9% | Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 24.221 | 99.4% | How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025? | Continuous |
| 23.995 | 100.0% | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
| 23.632 | 96.9% | Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023? | Binary |
| 23.542 | 99.3% | What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025? | Continuous |
| 23.408 | 99.2% | Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025? | Binary |
| 23.314 | 100.0% | Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025? | Binary |
| 22.679 | 97.7% | Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award? | Multiple Choice |
| 22.093 | 96.7% | What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
| 22.004 | 98.3% | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
| 21.874 | 99.9% | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | Binary |
| 21.528 | 96.7% | Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024? | Binary |
| 21.207 | 99.9% | Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election? | Multiple Choice |
| 21.155 | 97.7% | What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025? | Continuous |
| 21.005 | 98.1% | How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend? | Continuous |
| 20.137 | 99.4% | Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025? | Binary |
| 19.976 | 100.0% | Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.741 | 96.4% | Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025? | Binary |
| 19.645 | 99.7% | Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.605 | 98.0% | Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025? | Binary |
| 19.329 | 96.6% | Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.322 | 19.3% | How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026? | Continuous |
| 18.919 | 99.9% | Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025? | Binary |
| 18.596 | 97.7% | Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025? | Binary |
| 17.590 | 99.1% | How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025? | Continuous |
| 17.360 | 56.6% | Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government? | Multiple Choice |
| 17.316 | 100.0% | Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025? | Binary |
| 17.272 | 25.4% | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 17.214 | 100.0% | Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026? | Binary |
| 17.186 | 98.7% | What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale? | Continuous |
| 17.055 | 98.9% | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.993 | 99.3% | Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025? | Binary |
| 16.848 | 99.4% | Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? | Binary |
| 16.765 | 84.4% | Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.589 | 96.9% | Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025? | Binary |
| 16.462 | 99.4% | How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025? | Continuous |
| 16.455 | 99.7% | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
| 16.383 | 99.2% | Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 15.854 | 99.0% | How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026? | Continuous |
| 15.714 | 98.9% | What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025? | Continuous |
| 15.550 | 100.0% | Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Binary |
| 15.131 | 99.9% | Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 15.045 | 99.3% | Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025? | Binary |
| 14.649 | 98.1% | What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025? | Continuous |
| 14.488 | 99.8% | Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 13.955 | 91.8% | When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in? | Continuous |
| 13.881 | 55.9% | What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire? | Continuous |
| 13.810 | 97.4% | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | Binary |
| 13.564 | 99.7% | Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026? | Binary |
| 13.492 | 99.9% | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | Binary |
| 13.274 | 99.8% | Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025? | Binary |
| 13.062 | 96.9% | Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi? | Binary |
| 12.858 | 98.9% | How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025? | Continuous |
| 12.829 | 79.1% | Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025? | Binary |
| 12.774 | 99.7% | Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 12.763 | 100.0% | What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th? | Continuous |
| 12.207 | 100.0% | What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 12.155 | 99.4% | What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December) | Continuous |
| 11.265 | 98.6% | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.879 | 76.4% | Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025? | Binary |
| 10.818 | 96.7% | Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024? | Binary |
| 10.811 | 99.7% | Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting? | Binary |
| 10.743 | 98.7% | What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November) | Continuous |
| 9.786 | 99.8% | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | Continuous |
| 9.212 | 99.9% | Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026? | Binary |
| 9.105 | 99.9% | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
| 8.638 | 99.9% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk) | Binary |
| 8.548 | 10.4% | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
| 8.475 | 98.0% | Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 8.410 | 31.0% | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | Continuous |
| 8.343 | 99.7% | Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion? | Binary |
| 7.921 | 99.9% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka) | Binary |
| 7.897 | 99.6% | Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025? | Binary |
| 7.393 | 99.9% | Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025? | Binary |
| 6.890 | 99.0% | Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025? | Binary |
| 6.719 | 99.7% | What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025? | Continuous |
| 6.197 | 99.9% | Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025? | Binary |
| 5.857 | 82.9% | Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.273 | 97.9% | Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 5.204 | 99.7% | Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026? | Binary |
| 4.971 | 64.4% | Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land? | Binary |
| 4.636 | 99.7% | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
| 4.584 | 99.6% | Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.433 | 36.5% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk) | Binary |
| 4.027 | 15.1% | Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.607 | 100.0% | Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025? | Binary |
| 3.597 | 99.7% | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 3.090 | 99.5% | How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week? | Continuous |
| 2.837 | 100.0% | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 2.552 | 98.8% | Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.401 | 5.7% | Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.272 | 27.6% | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.996 | 99.6% | Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.793 | 99.4% | [Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have? | Continuous |
| 1.734 | 6.7% | Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025? | Binary |
| 1.110 | 64.8% | Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.984 | 99.9% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad) | Binary |
| 0.959 | 45.9% | Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.109 | 7.4% | Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.185 | 0.7% | Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -0.305 | 0.7% | Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025? | Binary |
| -0.314 | 99.9% | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| -0.855 | 8.6% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025? | Binary |
| -1.972 | 99.9% | What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women) | Continuous |
| -2.034 | 95.9% | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -2.855 | 66.3% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -3.149 | 99.2% | Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025? | Binary |
| -3.981 | 8.6% | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
| -8.578 | 99.5% | How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff? | Multiple Choice |
| -9.908 | 99.9% | Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| -17.990 | 42.9% | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
| -22.225 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting? | Multiple Choice |
| -28.560 | 98.5% | When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -33.971 | 92.9% | Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season? | Binary |
| -42.611 | 97.1% | What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be? | Multiple Choice |
| -78.970 | 88.1% | Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026? | Binary |