Sergio

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

15.75	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
186.244	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
166.821	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
163.356	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
150.606	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
124.565	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
111.442	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
110.008	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
87.176	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
76.706	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
72.865	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
68.780	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
66.416	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
65.425	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
63.654	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
62.572	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
60.655	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
55.113	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
55.051	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
54.256	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
52.376	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
52.183	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
49.984	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
49.633	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
47.523	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
45.347	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
45.023	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
43.723	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
43.310	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
42.244	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
42.175	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
42.041	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
40.916	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
40.375	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
38.940	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
37.790	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
37.591	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
36.655	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
35.509	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
35.055	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
34.946	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
34.516	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
31.553	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
28.903	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
28.144	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
27.411	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
26.764	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
26.481	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
24.997	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
24.706	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
23.870	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
23.350	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
20.431	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
20.366	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
20.224	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
19.877	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
18.519	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
17.858	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
17.067	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
15.679	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
14.934	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
14.811	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
14.427	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
12.888	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
12.828	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
12.725	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
12.511	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
12.125	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
12.118	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
11.450	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
10.943	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
10.435	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
10.290	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
10.012	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
9.800	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
9.721	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
9.687	Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?	Binary
9.295	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
8.772	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
8.479	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
7.436	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
7.059	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
6.776	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
6.723	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
6.423	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
6.280	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
6.018	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
5.918	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
5.771	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
5.767	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
5.536	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
5.432	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
5.318	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
5.307	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.127	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
4.956	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
4.673	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
4.057	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
4.043	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
3.811	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
3.663	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
3.458	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.371	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
3.297	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
2.453	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
1.881	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
1.690	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
1.557	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.453	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
1.379	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
1.351	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.338	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
1.013	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
0.791	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.787	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.686	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
0.605	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.500	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.136	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
0.123	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-0.187	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-0.205	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-0.208	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
-0.236	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-0.242	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.891	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
-1.766	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-2.519	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-2.993	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-3.065	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-3.142	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-3.352	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-4.450	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-4.548	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-5.259	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-5.331	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-6.413	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
-6.592	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-8.647	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-9.598	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
-9.830	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-10.336	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-12.522	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-12.595	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-15.140	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
-15.806	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-16.234	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
-16.678	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-17.777	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
-17.783	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-18.871	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
-19.948	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-23.505	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-24.454	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-27.093	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
-27.693	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-31.240	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-32.009	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
-34.230	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-35.915	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
-39.771	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
-40.349	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-41.106	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-46.821	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-53.552	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-70.449	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-122.025	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous