147.935 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV) | Binary |
111.022 | Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years)) | Binary |
59.833 | How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024? | Continuous |
51.764 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain) | Binary |
45.549 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
38.176 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023? | Continuous |
35.492 | How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy? | Continuous |
33.566 | When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT? | Continuous |
33.243 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R)) | Binary |
31.420 | Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist? | Binary |
29.788 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
27.228 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers) | Binary |
26.220 | When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives? | Continuous |
25.861 | Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024? | Binary |
25.744 | What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023? | Continuous |
25.741 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín) | Binary |
24.854 | What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections? | Continuous |
23.950 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
22.800 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
21.820 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
21.336 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
20.372 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023? | Continuous |
20.154 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | Binary |
18.544 | What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election? | Continuous |
18.544 | How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
18.416 | Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023? | Binary |
18.314 | How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
18.248 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
18.129 | Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600) | Binary |
17.986 | Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023? | Binary |
17.460 | What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
17.312 | What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
17.086 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
16.713 | What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023? | Continuous |
16.329 | What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
15.898 | Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
15.362 | Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023? | Binary |
14.851 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
14.673 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
14.627 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
14.571 | Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.065 | Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season? | Binary |
13.803 | Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023? | Binary |
13.087 | Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023? | Binary |
12.857 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | Binary |
12.731 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.521 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024) | Binary |
11.938 | How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023? | Continuous |
11.914 | Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023? | Binary |
11.513 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
11.469 | What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
10.369 | What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023? | Continuous |
10.016 | How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023? | Continuous |
9.877 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
9.855 | What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff? | Continuous |
9.723 | Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023? | Binary |
9.683 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
9.480 | Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024? | Binary |
9.364 | US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
9.292 | How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
9.234 | How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023? | Continuous |
9.219 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
9.155 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | Binary |
9.142 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023? | Continuous |
9.097 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
9.081 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
9.075 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | Binary |
8.956 | Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023? | Binary |
8.703 | How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023? | Continuous |
8.569 | How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023? | Continuous |
8.527 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.502 | Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks? | Binary |
8.475 | Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law? | Binary |
8.295 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.259 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai) | Binary |
8.051 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023? | Binary |
7.702 | Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions? | Binary |
7.588 | Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)? | Binary |
7.559 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
7.556 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3) | Binary |
7.476 | Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela? | Binary |
7.469 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |
7.436 | Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
7.254 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC) | Binary |
7.142 | Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024? | Binary |
7.141 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Binary |
7.048 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D)) | Binary |
7.001 | What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2) | Continuous |
6.849 | How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate? | Continuous |
6.695 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023) | Binary |
6.502 | When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water? | Continuous |
6.484 | What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023? | Continuous |
6.475 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R)) | Binary |
6.421 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.400 | When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end? | Continuous |
6.318 | Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections? | Binary |
6.123 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |
6.075 | What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19) | Continuous |
5.992 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | Binary |
5.988 | Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
5.940 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
5.837 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
5.726 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Binary |
5.546 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.428 | Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.406 | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | Binary |
5.346 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
5.323 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
5.305 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | Binary |
5.190 | Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023? | Binary |
5.095 | What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget? | Continuous |
5.084 | What percentage of the popular vote will presidential candidate Tharman Shanmugaratnam receive in the 2023 Singaporean presidential election? | Continuous |
4.961 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
4.907 | Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th? | Binary |
4.758 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
4.757 | What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release? | Continuous |
4.644 | What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final? | Continuous |
4.635 | How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023? | Continuous |
4.553 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori) | Continuous |
4.544 | Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300) | Binary |
4.451 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
4.403 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.275 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
4.262 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
4.236 | Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election? | Binary |
4.224 | [Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023? | Binary |
4.191 | Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional? | Binary |
4.050 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Binary |
4.001 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
3.985 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Binary |
3.975 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States) | Binary |
3.964 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26) | Continuous |
3.958 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
3.954 | Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.935 | Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case? | Binary |
3.832 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
3.800 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights) | Binary |
3.755 | Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023? | Binary |
3.698 | Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100) | Binary |
3.675 | What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024? | Continuous |
3.551 | Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List? | Binary |
3.488 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Binary |
3.351 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA) | Binary |
3.346 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R)) | Binary |
3.318 | How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023? | Continuous |
3.289 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
3.194 | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | Binary |
2.968 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić) | Binary |
2.909 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
2.901 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa) | Binary |
2.888 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
2.861 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |
2.688 | What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023? | Continuous |
2.672 | Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024? | Binary |
2.648 | Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023? | Binary |
2.626 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
2.605 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.552 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
2.535 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
2.480 | Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023? | Binary |
2.433 | Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024? | Binary |
2.364 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023? | Binary |
2.356 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |
2.224 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros) | Binary |
2.207 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.186 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
2.183 | Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
2.170 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2) | Binary |
2.146 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
2.143 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
2.136 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
2.125 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Binary |
2.125 | Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024? | Binary |
2.103 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
2.088 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
2.017 | Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship? | Binary |
1.981 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024) | Binary |
1.862 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.857 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | Binary |
1.835 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.820 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT) | Continuous |
1.707 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
1.641 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024) | Binary |
1.568 | Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023? | Binary |
1.519 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
1.446 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
1.420 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.377 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
1.336 | Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.310 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
1.300 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas) | Binary |
1.273 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
1.192 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.189 | Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023? | Binary |
1.169 | What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
1.157 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
1.148 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050) | Binary |
1.144 | Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country? | Binary |
1.128 | Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.098 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.087 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left) | Binary |
1.064 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement) | Binary |
1.049 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition) | Binary |
1.046 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15) | Binary |
1.037 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation) | Binary |
1.025 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left) | Binary |
1.018 | Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023? | Binary |
1.015 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman) | Binary |
0.996 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.980 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
0.934 | Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season? | Binary |
0.880 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
0.847 | Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety? | Binary |
0.808 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos) | Binary |
0.774 | What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023? | Continuous |
0.749 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada) | Binary |
0.745 | Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
0.743 | Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023? | Binary |
0.675 | How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election? | Continuous |
0.671 | Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023? | Binary |
0.667 | Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024? | Binary |
0.651 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green) | Continuous |
0.595 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines) | Binary |
0.593 | Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List? | Binary |
0.586 | Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting? | Binary |
0.579 | What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023? | Continuous |
0.577 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China) | Binary |
0.561 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
0.557 | Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023? | Binary |
0.556 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
0.538 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023) | Continuous |
0.498 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29) | Continuous |
0.446 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
0.423 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
0.415 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.401 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan) | Binary |
0.369 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP)) | Binary |
0.368 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Binary |
0.366 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |
0.354 | Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024? | Binary |
0.342 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
0.316 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand) | Binary |
0.311 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica) | Binary |
0.295 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023? | Binary |
0.290 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
0.235 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina) | Binary |
0.229 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies) | Binary |
0.222 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
0.222 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | Binary |
0.205 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.186 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed) | Binary |
0.173 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
0.167 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
0.142 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland) | Binary |
0.130 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş) | Binary |
0.121 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15) | Continuous |
0.118 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama) | Binary |
0.111 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
0.105 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D)) | Binary |
0.093 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti) | Binary |
0.092 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel) | Binary |
0.068 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D)) | Binary |
0.050 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica) | Binary |
0.046 | Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023? | Binary |
0.043 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12) | Continuous |
0.041 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia) | Binary |
0.034 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos) | Binary |
0.029 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
0.028 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |
0.013 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam) | Binary |
0.011 | Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023? | Binary |
-0.003 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu) | Binary |
-0.006 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener) | Binary |
-0.006 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan) | Binary |
-0.006 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller) | Binary |
-0.007 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül) | Binary |
-0.008 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek) | Binary |
-0.008 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce) | Binary |
-0.008 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan) | Binary |
-0.008 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan) | Binary |
-0.013 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Tampa Bay Rays) | Binary |
-0.014 | Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st? | Binary |
-0.019 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti) | Binary |
-0.023 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D)) | Binary |
-0.024 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Toronto Blue Jays) | Binary |
-0.028 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Miami Marlins) | Binary |
-0.035 | Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff? | Binary |
-0.041 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Milwaukee Brewers) | Binary |
-0.043 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
-0.063 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D)) | Binary |
-0.081 | Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-0.131 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE) | Binary |
-0.173 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox) | Binary |
-0.182 | 2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion? | Binary |
-0.201 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)) | Binary |
-0.310 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D)) | Binary |
-0.314 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D)) | Binary |
-0.321 | Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023? | Binary |
-0.324 | Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate? | Continuous |
-0.334 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
-0.387 | Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.389 | How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National) | Continuous |
-0.405 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
-0.407 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich) | Binary |
-0.429 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins) | Binary |
-0.442 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D)) | Binary |
-0.446 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland) | Binary |
-0.469 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D)) | Binary |
-0.500 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D)) | Binary |
-0.500 | Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? | Binary |
-0.516 | Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate? | Binary |
-0.528 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D)) | Binary |
-0.602 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark) | Binary |
-0.602 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks) | Binary |
-0.616 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
-0.626 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal) | Binary |
-0.687 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
-0.695 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D)) | Binary |
-0.696 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
-0.708 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R)) | Binary |
-0.710 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.711 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D)) | Binary |
-0.712 | Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.755 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D)) | Binary |
-0.769 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
-0.770 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers) | Binary |
-0.773 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei) | Binary |
-0.831 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles) | Binary |
-0.861 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | Binary |
-0.887 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R)) | Binary |
-0.903 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg) | Binary |
-0.934 | Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-1.049 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars) | Binary |
-1.074 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
-1.121 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy) | Binary |
-1.153 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
-1.190 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner) | Binary |
-1.194 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes) | Binary |
-1.219 | Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party? | Binary |
-1.266 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers) | Binary |
-1.270 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa) | Binary |
-1.307 | Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves) | Binary |
-1.317 | Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D)) | Binary |
-1.319 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R)) | Binary |
-1.394 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform) | Binary |
-1.401 | Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023? | Binary |
-1.448 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-1.466 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis) | Binary |
-1.496 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R)) | Binary |
-1.607 | Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon? | Binary |
-1.703 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.747 | Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years)) | Binary |
-1.759 | Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize? | Binary |
-2.058 | What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
-2.135 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
-2.158 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL) | Binary |
-2.178 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria) | Binary |
-2.189 | Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024? | Binary |
-2.323 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway) | Binary |
-2.342 | What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad? | Continuous |
-2.371 | Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th? | Binary |
-2.541 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco) | Binary |
-2.556 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita) | Binary |
-2.645 | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.662 | Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again? | Binary |
-2.731 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
-2.741 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66) | Binary |
-2.762 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
-2.770 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-2.814 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea) | Binary |
-2.852 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS)) | Binary |
-3.087 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-3.206 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González) | Binary |
-3.227 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia) | Binary |
-3.232 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | Binary |
-3.242 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2) | Binary |
-3.297 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France) | Binary |
-3.307 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD) | Binary |
-3.373 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
-3.548 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024) | Binary |
-3.638 | Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023? | Binary |
-3.738 | Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class? | Binary |
-3.815 | Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023? | Binary |
-3.845 | When will the second Starship test flight occur? | Continuous |
-3.971 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands) | Binary |
-3.994 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | Binary |
-4.001 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany) | Binary |
-4.632 | Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.643 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
-4.733 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei) | Binary |
-4.823 | Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023? | Continuous |
-5.064 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | Binary |
-5.278 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
-5.443 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB) | Binary |
-5.730 | When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%? | Continuous |
-5.890 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1) | Binary |
-6.272 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
-6.402 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | Binary |
-6.722 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-6.768 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia) | Binary |
-6.783 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5) | Binary |
-7.109 | Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7? | Binary |
-7.147 | Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election? | Binary |
-7.474 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
-7.561 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England) | Binary |
-7.595 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1) | Binary |
-7.757 | Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate? | Binary |
-8.005 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil) | Binary |
-8.158 | Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year? | Binary |
-8.292 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0) | Binary |
-8.392 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
-8.446 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden) | Binary |
-8.871 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba) | Binary |
-9.727 | How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election? | Continuous |
-10.217 | Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023? | Binary |
-10.400 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa) | Binary |
-10.495 | When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin? | Continuous |
-10.853 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0) | Binary |
-11.069 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5) | Binary |
-12.114 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema) | Binary |
-14.058 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
-16.403 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
-16.959 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
-19.624 | Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023? | Binary |
-21.544 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
-26.966 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
-33.714 | Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-49.465 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |