MaxA

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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48.91		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
141.818	93.4%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
126.417	99.5%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
120.401	99.5%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
120.246	99.9%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
116.777	74.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
105.452	98.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
101.616	87.7%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
97.502	84.9%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
96.180	99.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
94.125	98.7%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
92.314	97.1%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
89.553	94.9%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
80.815	98.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
76.856	99.8%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
75.761	95.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
74.484	98.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
72.781	87.3%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
70.151	99.2%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
69.627	94.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
66.129	99.6%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
63.520	97.4%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
62.971	87.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
62.602	97.6%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
59.515	78.3%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
57.369	99.3%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
56.488	88.7%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
55.764	87.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
55.366	99.2%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
54.353	94.5%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
53.377	89.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
52.361	82.0%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
50.666	86.3%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
50.652	69.8%	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
49.390	98.9%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
48.464	90.3%	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
47.397	49.1%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
46.159	96.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
45.130	99.0%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
45.077	63.0%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
44.184	97.2%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
43.481	99.2%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
41.354	88.1%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
41.075	96.2%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
40.470	92.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
38.901	83.5%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
36.783	98.3%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
34.549	80.0%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
34.021	74.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
33.426	99.7%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
32.634	92.9%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
32.163	96.2%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
31.731	94.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
31.254	98.9%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
30.916	79.5%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
25.426	99.5%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
25.412	99.0%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
24.816	99.6%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
24.294	96.2%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
24.124	89.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
23.111	98.4%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
22.034	99.0%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
19.196	92.7%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
17.925	98.4%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
17.775	96.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
17.508	93.8%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
17.212	87.3%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.483	94.9%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.373	64.0%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
15.914	88.8%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
15.553	82.9%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
15.519	99.9%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
14.305	95.1%	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
13.209	18.6%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
12.887	99.9%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
12.241	24.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
11.117	19.5%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
10.904	99.0%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
9.699	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
7.976	52.8%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
7.945	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
6.795	40.4%	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
6.708	77.2%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
6.094	26.7%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
4.358	9.4%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
4.256	99.5%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
4.112	7.3%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
2.610	99.0%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
2.496	97.8%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
1.881	5.1%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
0.993	6.2%	Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?	Binary
0.989	99.5%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.905	22.7%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
0.334	0.7%	Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-1.915	98.4%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
-4.313	98.4%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-12.641	66.3%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-117.716	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary